What are your winners & losers today?

[ken-do-nim]

I got crushed today. It happens. But I'm not clicking into the portfolio to see the details Big-picture wise, I'm still just $10k down from my ATH.

[fenders53]

(09-17-2021, 09:42 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I got crushed today.  It happens.  But I'm not clicking into the portfolio to see the details   Big-picture wise, I'm still just $10k down from my ATH.

If we get a tech pullback out of the way we can finish the year strong. My new narrative is earnings season will be wild. Some of these companies have some bad news to share, even if it is short term in nature.

[ken-do-nim]

(09-17-2021, 09:42 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I got crushed today.  It happens.  But I'm not clicking into the portfolio to see the details   Big-picture wise, I'm still just $10k down from my ATH.

I peeked. Now $20k down from ATH.  I sure hope the sell-off is almost over, as opposed to just beginning.

[fenders53]

(09-21-2021, 03:25 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(09-17-2021, 09:42 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I got crushed today.  It happens.  But I'm not clicking into the portfolio to see the details   Big-picture wise, I'm still just $10k down from my ATH.

I peeked. Now $20k down from ATH.  I sure hope the sell-off is almost over, as opposed to just beginning.

My favorite fortune teller says we are about halfway through.  I am quite convinced we have some earning warnings coming due to Covid and supply chains.  Their quiet period is a little ways away yet.  The FED Chief will try to save us with happy words. 

P.S. My fortune teller is pretty good.  I think she said something on Sunday about China real estate rocking iron miners, CAT, and my little MN UTE.  It didn't take 24hrs to start. 

Most of my stocks are immune from earning warnings but there is no way to dodge all the beating when the market dips.

[ken-do-nim]

(09-21-2021, 03:39 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-21-2021, 03:25 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(09-17-2021, 09:42 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I got crushed today.  It happens.  But I'm not clicking into the portfolio to see the details   Big-picture wise, I'm still just $10k down from my ATH.

I peeked. Now $20k down from ATH.  I sure hope the sell-off is almost over, as opposed to just beginning.

My favorite fortune teller says we are about halfway through.  I am quite convinced we have some earning warnings coming due to Covid and supply chains.  Their quiet period is a little ways away yet.  The FED Chief will try to save us with happy words. 

P.S. My fortune teller is pretty good.  I think she said something on Sunday about China real estate rocking iron miners, CAT, and my little MN UTE.  It didn't take 24hrs to start. 

Most of my stocks are immune from earning warnings but there is no way to dodge all the beating when the market dips.

Yeah, I'm expecting October to be a down month as well.  It's not like I have to make a cash-out any time soon*.  As long as none of my equities cut their dividends, I can ignore the ups & downs.


* I will probably end up using next year's bonus check to pay for all the capital gains taxes I incurred this year

[fenders53]

I think the market may be priced for more growth than reality. Time will tell. Transports struggling now is not a good sign. Nobody is predicting a recession. The estimates are just high for complicated logistics. Some will make earnings and some won't. We may have a good end to the year but there are some speed bumps coming first IMO. There is nowhere else to invest so I am optimistic.

[ken-do-nim]

Bad day for sure, but I want to focus on 2 stocks in particular.

Good news: COF finally went green!

Bad news: LLY is having 'falling knife' syndrome. I'm now down 11.5%, with the original slate of purchases down 16-17%.

[fenders53]

LLY PE is still lofty vs peers and the entire sector is currently unloved. I was surprised it hit 200 so fast. It's reverting to the mean.

[ken-do-nim]

(09-27-2021, 04:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote: LLY PE is still lofty vs peers and the entire sector is currently unloved.  I was surprised it hit 200 so fast.  It's reverting to the mean.

Do you recommend I hang on, or sell, and come back to it later when the price is presumably lower?

[fenders53]

I haven't researched if lately. I spoke on it's valuation before you bought it. I sold it at a lower price months earlier. I wouldn't tell anyone they should sell a big pharma stock today. They are all beaten down. You will lose a lot of money dumping every sector that falls out of favor.

[ken-do-nim]

(09-27-2021, 04:32 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I haven't researched if lately.  I spoke on it's valuation before you bought it.  I sold it at a lower price months earlier.  I wouldn't tell anyone they should sell a big pharma stock today.  They are all beaten down.  You will lose a lot of money dumping every sector that falls out of favor.

I unfortunately missed that earlier advice.  I certainly agree that patience is a virtue.  I'm sure pharma/biotech (I can never figure out the difference) will rotate back into favor at some point.

[fenders53]

Everything quality I can think of in the sector is down about 10% off highs. I'd let LLY ride.