Posts: 1,173
Threads: 2
Joined: Jul 2018
Reputation:
1
(09-16-2021, 03:57 PM)NilesMike Wrote: (09-16-2021, 09:56 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (09-15-2021, 12:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Entered orders to sell all my equity mutuals at the close. SPY, Midcap and Russell 2K. This makes me nervous but the plan is to get them into ETFs tomorrow. I hate that I can't add to my mutuals on hard down days so that is the motivation to make the move. Fees are basically the same.
Caught a break and sold on a decent up day. Sold near the money puts in SPY and IWM today. Not sure if I should jump into the ETFs all at once or average in. It's a coin flip so I sold the puts expiring tomorrow while I contemplate it since it is a lot of money. I'll grab some "free" shares of XEL today with the premiums. I get to keep those if the market launches higher and leaves me behind.
"All in" has been statistically proven superior to averaging in, just sayin'.
How?
Posts: 789
Threads: 15
Joined: Nov 2013
Reputation:
5
(09-17-2021, 10:23 AM)vbin Wrote: (09-16-2021, 03:57 PM)NilesMike Wrote: (09-16-2021, 09:56 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (09-15-2021, 12:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Entered orders to sell all my equity mutuals at the close. SPY, Midcap and Russell 2K. This makes me nervous but the plan is to get them into ETFs tomorrow. I hate that I can't add to my mutuals on hard down days so that is the motivation to make the move. Fees are basically the same.
Caught a break and sold on a decent up day. Sold near the money puts in SPY and IWM today. Not sure if I should jump into the ETFs all at once or average in. It's a coin flip so I sold the puts expiring tomorrow while I contemplate it since it is a lot of money. I'll grab some "free" shares of XEL today with the premiums. I get to keep those if the market launches higher and leaves me behind.
"All in" has been statistically proven superior to averaging in, just sayin'.
How?
I will see if I can locate some of the studies and post a link. Surprised me too, but that was the results.
Posts: 1,683
Threads: 55
Joined: Oct 2020
Reputation:
5
09-17-2021, 10:29 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2021, 10:31 AM by ken-do-nim.)
Well, I forecasted a budget surplus for September, not even including the 3 paycheck month of October coming up, so I threw $1000 into the market just now:
2 JNJ (re-established position)
1 LLY
1 ABBV
1 CSCO
1 TECL
5 HPQ (re-established position)
Darn, I forget to re-add RIO, which I'd promised myself I'd do if it dropped into the 60s.
Posts: 1,683
Threads: 55
Joined: Oct 2020
Reputation:
5
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
09-17-2021, 10:56 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2021, 10:58 AM by fenders53.)
(09-17-2021, 10:23 AM)vbin Wrote: (09-16-2021, 03:57 PM)NilesMike Wrote: (09-16-2021, 09:56 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (09-15-2021, 12:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Entered orders to sell all my equity mutuals at the close. SPY, Midcap and Russell 2K. This makes me nervous but the plan is to get them into ETFs tomorrow. I hate that I can't add to my mutuals on hard down days so that is the motivation to make the move. Fees are basically the same.
Caught a break and sold on a decent up day. Sold near the money puts in SPY and IWM today. Not sure if I should jump into the ETFs all at once or average in. It's a coin flip so I sold the puts expiring tomorrow while I contemplate it since it is a lot of money. I'll grab some "free" shares of XEL today with the premiums. I get to keep those if the market launches higher and leaves me behind.
"All in" has been statistically proven superior to averaging in, just sayin'.
How?
I bet you could prove over the very long-term the market is up 60% of the days, months or whatever so everyday you are in earlier is to your advantage. In my particular case the market is clearly nervous and at least a bit overvalued. Moving 70K. Sold on an up day. Can I re-invest it back 2% lower over the next few weeks? It seems likely. Can I grab some option income on the way in to make up for the lame index dividend this quarter? That is near certainty as I am halfway there in 48 hrs. It will work out or not. I don't feel any urgency.
DCA is for smoothing out the share price bumps. It works better some years than others. You are far less likely to catch an extreme.
Posts: 789
Threads: 15
Joined: Nov 2013
Reputation:
5
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
Sold a put in SPWR-ABBV-XOM (Bullish)
Disclaimer: Never copy my oil trades are you will likely lose money.  Anyone else have a sector or stock that repeatedly torments you?
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
(09-17-2021, 10:36 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: ... and 4 RIO :-)
Iron ore is crashing pretty hard right now. IMO the next few years should be good though if there is any sort of infrastructure package and automakers back to normal. Much like lumber which set records and crashed hard this spring Lumber mill stocks are stabilizing just a few months later. Commodities are really tough so you need to follow the story even if the position is small this time. Win or lose you need to have some idea why so your future larger bets are informed bets. We can only buy and hold them for years when we buy the bottom, and that is not what we are doing here. I said "we" because a lot of us have dipped our toe in the water way past the trough prices. US Steel is building a new steel plant that won't even produce until next year. That's a pretty good sign as the US steel industry died when I was a kid. Little investment since then industry wide other than some Nucor modernization.
Anyway the point of all that was you will lose bad in the end if you just wing it with commodities. I still keep the bets small and short-term unless I know I bought when there was widespread panic among stockholders. It takes a recession to cause that.
Posts: 789
Threads: 15
Joined: Nov 2013
Reputation:
5
(09-17-2021, 12:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Sold a put in SPWR-ABBV-XOM (Bullish)
Disclaimer: Never copy my oil trades are you will likely lose money. Anyone else have a sector or stock that repeatedly torments you?
I think XOM will outperform the sector due to some strategy changes made internally.
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
(09-17-2021, 01:30 PM)NilesMike Wrote: (09-17-2021, 12:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Sold a put in SPWR-ABBV-XOM (Bullish)
Disclaimer: Never copy my oil trades or you will likely lose money. Anyone else have a sector or stock that repeatedly torments you?
I think XOM will outperform the sector due to some strategy changes made internally.
I have had my A$$ handed to me so many times by oil that I really do want others to listen to somebody else or better yet be informed. I was late to XOM and have been selling a new put a few times a month if it dips. About 2-3% out of the money and so far so good lol. I think XOM is a helluva lot safer than most of these these stocks on sale $10 off their crazy highs. It's hard to imagine XOM isn't going to beat earnings and getting in before the next Div is a bonus if it happens.
Posts: 1,873
Threads: 35
Joined: Jan 2016
Reputation:
6
(09-17-2021, 12:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Sold a put in SPWR-ABBV-XOM (Bullish)
Disclaimer: Never copy my oil trades are you will likely lose money. Anyone else have a sector or stock that repeatedly torments you?
SPWR may be the best thing you mentioned in a long time lol. I actually would go long here. Nice base forming and the Bollinger bands are about to pop 
Out of all my holding I'm only down $40 on the day. Not bad at all considering how bad the market is doing. Lets hope tech takes a big hit and corrects more then just 2 days.
I know XEL is one of your favs. It has been downhill for weeks now. That normally doesn't happen with this stock. I just added at $63.95. I will buy more if it gets under $60
XOM I will stay away from. Burned too many timed on that name. I have EOG, DVN, CVX and FANG. Those are the ones I like. And that's enough oil for me lol
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
(09-17-2021, 03:03 PM)divmenow Wrote: (09-17-2021, 12:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Sold a put in SPWR-ABBV-XOM (Bullish)
Disclaimer: Never copy my oil trades are you will likely lose money. Anyone else have a sector or stock that repeatedly torments you?
SPWR may be the best thing you mentioned in a long time lol. I actually would go long here. Nice base forming and the Bollinger bands are about to pop
Out of all my holding I'm only down $40 on the day. Not bad at all considering how bad the market is doing. Lets hope tech takes a big hit and corrects more then just 2 days.
I know XEL is one of your favs. It has been downhill for weeks now. That normally doesn't happen with this stock. I just added at $63.95. I will buy more if it gets under $60
XOM I will stay away from. Burned too many timed on that name. I have EOG, DVN, CVX and FANG. Those are the ones I like. And that's enough oil for me lol
Solar has been very good to me for over a year. The ETFs are flat but I have beaten the SPY for sure. Put RUN on your watch list. They probably have better financials then SPWR. I sell the options and they pay nicely. The shares will run eventually though. You gotta swing trade it and I don't want to flip the shares every two weeks so I just sell puts and calls around my position.
I got lucky in UTEs too I suppose. I went all in FEB-MAR on the hard dip but knew I needed to sell them off months ago and I gradually did. We aren't that low yet. I'll keep nibbling until I am overweight if necessary. Same deal, flat for the year but that's not what my port says.
I am flat for the day as well. I don't make as much on the up days but it works out if you don't get killed. Hoping for a real dip in tech and I'll make the port more exciting.
|
