VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

That's good. Demand is likely to be stable with vacation season ending. This could be a good spot to camp for the patient. Oil companies can churn out some cash flow and repair their balance sheets. Little chance oil is going high enough to cause any panic drilling.

[EricL]

Gotta love EOG with 10.8% FCF yield and 0.1X net debt/EBITDAX.

   

   

[MrFortune]

EOG good company but I prefer buying CVX with the bigger yield and payout,

EOG paid that special dividend but give me $1.34 over .41 any day lol

But I own both names. CVX I just added too and EOG I bought a year ago at $34 so no reason to add any more.

[fenders53]

(08-20-2021, 09:06 AM)MrFortune Wrote: EOG good company but I prefer buying CVX with the bigger yield and payout,

EOG paid that special dividend but give me $1.34 over .41 any day lol

But I own both names. CVX I just added too and EOG I bought a year ago at $34 so no reason to add any more.

The growth potential is the difference.  When the oil market is hot EOG will outperform by a margin.  And then there is most of the time like now.  My cost basis is much higher on EOG but I will hold on.

[EricL]

Crude keeps draining...

EIA
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending September 10, 2021
 
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.4 million barrels per day during the week ending September 10, 2021 which was 85,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 82.1% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.2 million barrels per day.
 
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.8 million barrels per day last week, down by 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.0 million barrels per day, 13.3% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 638,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 164,000 barrels per day.
 
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 417.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 13% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels last week and are about 20% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 8.8 million barrels last week.
 
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.1 million barrels a day, up by 16.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.4 million barrels a day, up by 8.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 10.9% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 59.1% compared with the same four-week period last year.

[fenders53]

Thanks Eric. A promising trend. I closed my eyes to my EOG position on the hard dip and it's looking much better now. I don't think demand will be amazing for a few months so the supply dip was very timely.

[vbin]

I think suddenly people gonna realize oil is at $80 and racing towards $100. Who knows just like anything we suddenly see a shortage of oil by next summer.

[fenders53]

(09-15-2021, 11:53 AM)vbin Wrote: I think suddenly people gonna realize oil is at $80 and racing towards $100. Who knows just like anything we suddenly see a shortage of oil by next summer.

I still think $100 is Seeking Alpha fantasy right now, but next summer could sure happen if OPEC cooperates, and they seem to "get it" now.

[EricL]

Hurricane Ida is still having a huge impact on the oil market. Outages are still roughly 5% of the US average daily production.

   

[MrFortune]

$100 oil we will never see it. At least now until 2023 and beyond. The only reason why oil is up so much today is because of the hurricanes and all and the people who play the short supply game.. Oil will be in that $60-$70 range for a long time. The saudis wont allow oil to get past a certain level like $72-75. I bet oil gives back today's gains at end of week.

As Cramer said... Fossil fuel stocks, “feel like a slowly melting ice cube, a wasting asset that will have down revenues unless the price of crude jumps signifyingly higher and stays higher.

[vbin]

(09-15-2021, 03:08 PM)MrFortune Wrote: $100 oil we will never see it. At least now until 2023 and beyond. The only reason why oil is up so much today is because of the hurricanes and all and the people who play the short supply game.. Oil will be in that $60-$70 range for a long time. The saudis wont allow oil to get past a certain level like $72-75. I bet oil gives back today's gains at end of week.

As Cramer said... Fossil fuel stocks, “feel like a slowly melting ice cube, a wasting asset that will have down revenues unless the price of crude jumps signifyingly higher and stays higher.

Market pendulums believe in momentum and always over shoots in both directions. Could u ever imagine -ve oil prices?

Coal supposed to be a dyeing commodity, guess what it's price triplled in last 1 year. We are in for demand supply shock. People think reopening has happened. Its not even half reopening yet. Wait till next year. I donno how high it will go but we are aiming for higher oil prices in my opinion.

[fenders53]

As long as oil companies are restoring balance sheets and not expanding production we will be subject to spikes. OPEC will keep an eye out for new fracking. Other than the episode last spring with Saudi and Russia, we were the ones wrecking prices for years. $50 oil and $100 oil in the same year won't shock me, but not until next spring. Renewables won't have much effect until they can completely cover new demand growth. I won't own oil from that day forward as low cost producers with no other resources try to get whatever they can get. That year isn't real soon.