What are your winners & losers today?

[fenders53]

Tame day for me but that is what my port does. I had only a few positions make a $200 move. My port did hit a new ATH today but only by a few hundred. It's a meaningless stat day to day but still fun when things are going well. l've probably hit about 25 new daily ATHs for 2021. 2020 was pretty damn rough until Q4 so this is a nice change. The options contracts I sell expire on Fridays and most expired worthless again so I will be on the hunt for something to buy again next week. I am adequately invested so nothing to make me want to force trades.

[rayray]

alright, not sure whats wrong with me

sold--PTSG/BAM/TWOU/WORK

bought--DIS/GIL/MGA/MO/XOM/TDOC


i'm 50 now and seeing the light at the end of the working tunnel i'm fine tuning the portfolio which consists of a brokerage, two rollover ira's, 403b, 401k and a roth.

i figure i'm working anywhere from 5 to 10 years--i really don't want to play any t72 ira games, or do the rule of 55 to get any retirement monies--i'd rather just be 59 1/2 with no restrictions or games--i prefer things as KISS.

two things, debt (we still have a mortgage) and a magic number of 3mil, if that magic number comes at 55 even with a mortgage might consider it but the future is hard to predict cause i don't know it.

[ken-do-nim]

Wow, I had never heard of the ability to withdraw prior to age 59 1/2 through the rule of 55 or the 72t thing; thanks for enlightening me. Since I've been at the same job for over 20 years, I could retire at age 55 and take penalty-free (but obviously not tax-free) withdrawals from my 401k. I probably won't, since my child support ends right about then and I think I'd like to make my full salary for a few years.

As to the 3 million, I've developed what I call the "rule of AT&T" in response to the standard wisdom of getting 4 or 5% from your portfolio annually to determine retirement income. In other words, you should be able to average whatever AT&T's yield is, for your portfolio. I'm not saying put every last dollar in AT&T for its dividend, or even that all of the money should come from dividends, just that I think it's a good target to shoot for as a portfolio withdrawal %. Right now, AT&T is at 6.92%; that means with a $3,000,000 portfolio, we should be making $207,600 annually, even before Social Security kicks in. I think even with a mortgage that's plenty. My mortgage goes until I'm age 78 since I just refinanced

Why did you start by saying, "not sure what's wrong with me"? I mean, you should be buying TECL of course but no one listens to me on the triples lol.

[fenders53]

Pretty sure he is referring to selling. Hangs around here a few days a week and starting to pick up bad habits lol. I am trying to meet him part way. See if I have any dogs to lose just a few times a year. I sold too much last year. Bought other stuff that also went up but half the time it was a wash at best.

[rayray]

(04-10-2021, 07:16 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Wow, I had never heard of the ability to withdraw prior to age 59 1/2 through the rule of 55 or the 72t thing; thanks for enlightening me.  Since I've been at the same job for over 20 years, I could retire at age 55 and take penalty-free (but obviously not tax-free) withdrawals from my 401k.  I probably won't, since my child support ends right about then and I think I'd like to make my full salary for a few years.

As to the 3 million, I've developed what I call the "rule of AT&T" in response to the standard wisdom of getting 4 or 5% from your portfolio annually to determine retirement income.  In other words, you should be able to average whatever AT&T's yield is, for your portfolio.  I'm not saying put every last dollar in AT&T for its dividend, or even that all of the money should come from dividends, just that I think it's a good target to shoot for as a portfolio withdrawal %.  Right now, AT&T is at 6.92%; that means with a $3,000,000 portfolio, we should be making $207,600 annually, even before Social Security kicks in.  I think even with a mortgage that's plenty.  My mortgage goes until I'm age 78 since I just refinanced

Why did you start by saying, "not sure what's wrong with me"?  I mean, you should be buying TECL of course but no one listens to me on the triples lol.

seems like we're close in age, career and goals

as far as "not sure what's wrong with me" is a reference to i'm a staunch buy and hold investor and selling is very very very bad--it's usually a horrible mistake so i'm sure one or more of those stocks i sold will be good money makers--still own a nice amount of BAM though

another thing i've done was lower my kplan contributions from 18% to 16% to 10% ending up at 6% because I've been allocating monies to reducing debt, cash build-up and more put into the brokerage account. the one thing i've heard recent retiree's say over, over and over again was, "I wish I had more cash" almost everyone that i've known who retired over the years has said...."i wish i had more cash"

the rule of at&t is a nice guideline--i've heard of that one but long forgot about it--thank you for reminding me--i'm going to start using it

[ken-do-nim]

> i'm a staunch buy and hold investor and selling is very very very bad--it's usually a horrible mistake so i'm sure one or more of those stocks i sold will be good money makers

Wow I'm of an opposite mindset. At work, we use the Agile Methodology - aka "fail fast". I don't sit with equities that aren't producing when the market is doing great. For instance, you just sold WORK aka Slack. Congrats. I took a long hard look at this one myself. (And btw, we switched from Slack to (Cisco) Webex Teams for group chat, and strongly considered a Microsoft product as well, so it has stiff competition.)



Remarkably flat since December. No yield, negative earnings. I just couldn't find any reason to buy it.

Now, compare that to the S&P 500 over the last 6 months (VOO):



1.48% yield as well. In general, if I don't think an equity can beat VOO, I'm better off buying VOO. Steady strong performer and very diversified. (edit: and SPXL is VOO on steroids)

****

I only came up with the Rule of AT&T recently btw, so if you heard of it before then I'm not the first.

[rayray]

(04-10-2021, 08:34 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: > i'm a staunch buy and hold investor and selling is very very very bad--it's usually a horrible mistake so i'm sure one or more of those stocks i sold will be good money makers

Wow I'm of an opposite mindset.  At work, we use the Agile Methodology - aka "fail fast".  I don't sit with equities that aren't producing when the market is doing great.  For instance, you just sold WORK aka Slack. Congrats.  I took a long hard look at this one myself.  (And btw, we switched from Slack to (Cisco) Webex Teams for group chat, and strongly considered a Microsoft product as well, so it has stiff competition.)



Remarkably flat since December.  No yield, negative earnings.  I just couldn't find any reason to buy it.

Now, compare that to the S&P 500 over the last 6 months (VOO):



1.48% yield as well.  In general, if I don't think an equity can beat VOO, I'm better off buying VOO.  Steady strong performer and very diversified.  (edit: and SPXL is VOO on steroids)

****

I only came up with the Rule of AT&T recently btw, so if you heard of it before then I'm not the first.

slack (work) has been floating flat since the crm (salesforce) acquisition news broke--made a nice little profit but dead money till the acquisition is completed. between the cash and stock buyout not sure if it gives me enough crm shares, and i haven't done enough research to buy more shares--don't really feel like it at the moment, researching something new--originally bought slack because we use it at work

family members have worked for mabell--so i most likely heard it from one of them

[fenders53]

It's my observation that all of our strategies work pretty well when the market goes up every year. I need about 4% return a year to live a happy life. Of course I'd rather have 20% if I get get it while the tide is rising. Not getting destroyed a few years from now is much more important that shooting for 40% now which requires excessive risk.

Bottom line IMO is if you have any skills in fundamental analysis the majority of my stocks can be held. Peter Lynch says I only have to get it right about 6 out of ten times with individual stocks. Unfortunately that is a little harder than it sounds in a normal stock market period when the market doesn't go up significantly 3 out of every 4 years. A chimp could do it the past 10 years so I don't congratulate myself excessively. Many of the best investors failed the decade before. A decade is a long time.

[NilesMike]

In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.

[fenders53]

(04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.

Two could get it done.  You have to find them early.  I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite.  I never had a problem with the bumpy ride.  The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.

[rayray]

(04-10-2021, 07:39 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Pretty sure he is referring to selling.  Hangs around here a few days a week and starting to pick up bad habits lol.  I am trying to meet him part way.  See if I have any dogs to lose just a few times a year.  I sold too much last year.  Bought other stuff that also went up but half the time it was a wash at best.

what the hell! i'm in the wrong thread!!

i'm so use to "what did you buy today" thread being the first one up lol

alright, i don't pay attention to who are my biggest winners or losers on a per day basis

but what catches my eye is when something drops and i see a 4 figure drop and i'll go like uh oh mmmmmm....and if there's something there i'll buy--case in point kroger and qualcomm seems to go that route every so often and i'll pick up a few shares

as far as the winners for me...apple/shop/nvda/v/amp/qcom/trow/amzn

with shop/nvda/appl as my biggest percentage gainers

but then something like hsy (hershey) every time i think about getting rid of it and i look at it and it's averaging 13% plus year in year out for me--i can't get rid of that? in fact if it makes below 10% it might even be a buy who knows, right? it's a zero drama stock that does well

then MGA...here's another winner, love MGA

gild/wba/cvs are my most aggravating stocks i haven't given up on yet

[ken-do-nim]

I guess I'm the only one who enjoys logging in at 4:30 pm (Eastern time), after the markets have ended for the day and reporting delays are accounted for, to see where the dust settled. Theater perhaps? But I'm also interested in what's going on with everyone else's portfolios too, so if folks want to start contributing to this thread, I'd be happy to see the results. Just seeing what new stocks everyone nibbles on daily to me isn't as interesting as this topic.

As for all time, my single best purchase was SOXL on 3/19/2020.