VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

(12-24-2020, 11:29 AM)EricL Wrote: China oil product exports down 36% MOM and 15%YOY YTD due to growing internal Chinese oil demand.

LINK

It seems they are mostly dodging the crisis that started there.  I find hope in that because it means it can be contained, even if we seem to be blowing it.

[vbin]

(12-24-2020, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(12-24-2020, 11:29 AM)EricL Wrote: China oil product exports down 36% MOM and 15%YOY YTD due to growing internal Chinese oil demand.

LINK

It seems they are mostly dodging the crisis that started there.  I find hope in that because it means it can be contained, even if we seem to be blowing it.

Measures in China were drastic. Cant happen that in Democracy (people pleasing is the first thing politicians do). It was actually a lockdown. Lockdown in U.S.A is a jock. Its just killing small businesses(sad) and hurting the poor.

I sold some oil last week after the run up. Still a net buyer. will buy more on pullback.

[fenders53]

I agree Eric. While I believe it was well intended, at least initially, the systematic destruction of small business was enormous, and still continues. We will be a very long time fully recovering. The picking and choosing which part of our economy to rescue seems somewhat random. Our version of a lockdown is indeed a joke. I believe vaccines and the natural immunity caused by this surge will save oil. It may take a little longer than the market seems to believe.

[EricL]

Oil jumps 5%, breaks above $50 for the first time since February as Saudi Arabia announces voluntary cuts

LINK

EOG is up over 10%, XOM over 7%, and CVX 4.5% on the news.

[stockguru]

(01-05-2021, 02:35 PM)EricL Wrote: Oil jumps 5%, breaks above $50 for the first time since February as Saudi Arabia announces voluntary cuts

LINK

EOG is up over 10%, XOM over 7%, and CVX 4.5% on the news.

Don't get too excited Eric. We have seen this all before. Pinch me when XOM gets above $50 

[vbin]

(01-05-2021, 02:35 PM)EricL Wrote: Oil jumps 5%, breaks above $50 for the first time since February as Saudi Arabia announces voluntary cuts

LINK

EOG is up over 10%, XOM over 7%, and CVX 4.5% on the news.

Why Soudis cutting? They see demand falling? That's wouldnt be good.

[fenders53]

(01-05-2021, 03:16 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-05-2021, 02:35 PM)EricL Wrote: Oil jumps 5%, breaks above $50 for the first time since February as Saudi Arabia announces voluntary cuts

LINK

EOG is up over 10%, XOM over 7%, and CVX 4.5% on the news.

Why Soudis cutting? They see demand falling? That's wouldnt be good.

They are probably tired of making money.  They'll sell sand instead.     

It is an interesting turn of events.

[EricL]

I'm not convinced that this cut is voluntary. 

Saudi's have had rig count and spending cuts just like everyone else, and may not be able to produce what they claim. Rig count has been cut in half since Q1 of 2020, and oil production has dropped by ~1.5 MMbpd already. Wouldn't it be likely that production drops another similar amount over the next 12 months? 

   

They save face by announcing a "surprise" million barrel per day cut, impact the crude price by doing so, and then hide the fact they can't produce as much as previously touted.

Still bullish here...

[fenders53]

That would certainly be good news for frackers that can wind it up fairly fast. Is this why OXY is up so much?

[vbin]

(01-05-2021, 03:49 PM)EricL Wrote: I'm not convinced that this cut is voluntary. 

Saudi's have had rig count and spending cuts just like everyone else, and may not be able to produce what they claim. Rig count has been cut in half since Q1 of 2020, and oil production has dropped by ~1.5 MMbpd already. Wouldn't it be likely that production drops another similar amount over the next 12 months? 



They save face by announcing a "surprise" million barrel per day cut, impact the crude price by doing so, and then hide the fact they can't produce as much as previously touted.

Still bullish here...

Why production would drop by same amount over next 12 months? Market is speculating for economies to open up then the demand should go up.

Still cut means Saudis see further drop in demand? Why? Unless your theory is right that they are not able to ramp up quickly which. I really doubt is the case.

[fenders53]

(01-05-2021, 06:28 PM)vbin Wrote:

(01-05-2021, 03:49 PM)EricL Wrote: I'm not convinced that this cut is voluntary. 

Saudi's have had rig count and spending cuts just like everyone else, and may not be able to produce what they claim. Rig count has been cut in half since Q1 of 2020, and oil production has dropped by ~1.5 MMbpd already. Wouldn't it be likely that production drops another similar amount over the next 12 months? 



They save face by announcing a "surprise" million barrel per day cut, impact the crude price by doing so, and then hide the fact they can't produce as much as previously touted.

Still bullish here...

Why production would drop by same amount over next 12 months? Market is speculating for economies to open up then the demand should go up.

Still cut means Saudis see further drop in demand? Why?  Unless your theory is right that they are not able to ramp up quickly which. I really doubt is the case.

And the US political picture may change this week.  You might get those higher oil prices this year.  I bet the market will see through the hysteria if it happens.  An election doesn't make oil go away.  I do wish I hadn't sold some of my over-valued renewables stocks already though. 

[fenders53]

VBIN

Do you try to generate extra income with your energy stocks. I would definitely do that with a portion. I realize you are underwater on some of your shares. You could risk losing some shares if you sold a covered call or two. I do that with some of my stocks I expect to recover slowly or be stagnant. When it makes sense surrounding a core position with a covered put and a call often works well over time. I got blown up on WELL and a few others when I bought right before Covid. My basis is now way lower if you factor in income, while the stock plods along gradually higher. High premiums and not so tough to roll forward when needed for more premium. I highly don't recommend this for good growth stocks. You'll lose your shares and kick yourself.