Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
(04-07-2020, 01:20 PM)Otter Wrote: Aaand, closed my USO Puts for a 5.4% gain.
I think I will do the same tomorrow, and wait for the next major move in either direction to re-enter. There is no scenario that takes oil higher for very long anytime soon, but who knows what meetings and tweets will cause in the short-term. The Saudis and Russians are not going to cut enough to make a real difference. They know the US cut is nothing more than a lack of storage space for the over-production. It's going to be interesting drama.
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
Stuck in an up oil day before the meeting. I'm about even in my USO put buy. Small position so I'll take a chance and see if OPEC announces the necessary massive production cut back. I am skeptical. I am saying there is still a chance for my position lol. If not I'll move one for now.
Posts: 1,024
Threads: 8
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
16
(04-08-2020, 12:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Stuck in an up oil day before the meeting. I'm about even in my USO put buy. Small position so I'll take a chance and see if OPEC announces the necessary massive production cut back. I am skeptical. I am saying there is still a chance for my position lol. If not I'll move one for now.
Hoping you get lucky with a sell the news situation tomorrow heading into a 3-day weekend.
Bought a small amount of 5/22/20 VXX 42 Calls today, betting on another significant spike in volatility between now and end of May, as earnings roll in.
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
(04-08-2020, 01:19 PM)Otter Wrote: (04-08-2020, 12:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Stuck in an up oil day before the meeting. I'm about even in my USO put buy. Small position so I'll take a chance and see if OPEC announces the necessary massive production cut back. I am skeptical. I am saying there is still a chance for my position lol. If not I'll move one for now.
Hoping you get lucky with a sell the news situation tomorrow heading into a 3-day weekend.
Bought a small amount of 5/22/20 VXX 42 Calls today, betting on another significant spike in volatility between now and end of May, as earnings roll in.
Its a small enough trade. Just trying to learn a new game. I'll call it tuition if necessary, but I honestly don't see anything happening tomorrow that makes a lasting difference. For a few day? Sure. The oil market does love to move.
Posts: 1,173
Threads: 2
Joined: Jul 2018
Reputation:
1
I added more September spy puts today. This is nuts.
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
(04-08-2020, 01:19 PM)Otter Wrote: (04-08-2020, 12:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Stuck in an up oil day before the meeting. I'm about even in my USO put buy. Small position so I'll take a chance and see if OPEC announces the necessary massive production cut back. I am skeptical. I am saying there is still a chance for my position lol. If not I'll move one for now.
Hoping you get lucky with a sell the news situation tomorrow heading into a 3-day weekend.
Bought a small amount of 5/22/20 VXX 42 Calls today, betting on another significant spike in volatility between now and end of May, as earnings roll in.
Are they giving you Comp hotel rooms and meals at the casino yet? 
Posts: 1,024
Threads: 8
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
16
(04-09-2020, 07:43 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-08-2020, 01:19 PM)Otter Wrote: (04-08-2020, 12:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Stuck in an up oil day before the meeting. I'm about even in my USO put buy. Small position so I'll take a chance and see if OPEC announces the necessary massive production cut back. I am skeptical. I am saying there is still a chance for my position lol. If not I'll move one for now.
Hoping you get lucky with a sell the news situation tomorrow heading into a 3-day weekend.
Bought a small amount of 5/22/20 VXX 42 Calls today, betting on another significant spike in volatility between now and end of May, as earnings roll in.
Are they giving you Comp hotel rooms and meals at the casino yet?
LOL, they should. UUP seems to finally be responding to the endless Fed printing of dollars. Down 0.66% today, which is a pretty massive move for a currency index.
Treasury yields still not responding though, so doesn't look like the bond guys anticipate much in the way of inflation at the moment.
I will close out my SPY puts if I see treasury yields start to spike. Long GLD and even shorter UUP at that point.
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
04-09-2020, 09:27 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2020, 10:02 AM by fenders53.)
(04-09-2020, 09:06 AM)Otter Wrote: (04-09-2020, 07:43 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-08-2020, 01:19 PM)Otter Wrote: (04-08-2020, 12:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Stuck in an up oil day before the meeting. I'm about even in my USO put buy. Small position so I'll take a chance and see if OPEC announces the necessary massive production cut back. I am skeptical. I am saying there is still a chance for my position lol. If not I'll move one for now.
Hoping you get lucky with a sell the news situation tomorrow heading into a 3-day weekend.
Bought a small amount of 5/22/20 VXX 42 Calls today, betting on another significant spike in volatility between now and end of May, as earnings roll in.
Are they giving you Comp hotel rooms and meals at the casino yet?
LOL, they should. UUP seems to finally be responding to the endless Fed printing of dollars. Down 0.66% today, which is a pretty massive move for a currency index.
Treasury yields still not responding though, so doesn't look like the bond guys anticipate much in the way of inflation at the moment.
I will close out my SPY puts if I see treasury yields start to spike. Long GLD and even shorter UUP at that point.
I am going to keep my puts for a while longer. I don't own enough for it to be consequential if I sell them for half off. I feel a little better knowing I have some padding on a big down day. If I could cash them out and actually had something I'd like to buy long it would be different. That day will likely come if I am patient.
Your currency thesis will come true IMO. There are consequences for what the FED is doing. They are getting by with more than most would have ever dreamed possible but it's not limitless. They are not going to stop soon. Looks like the emergency $250B add on for small business got blocked. It will have to wait until next week so they can make it $350B. Our efficient capitalistic market is going to die. I thought recessions were supposed to weed out the weakest who make poor business decisions.
Posts: 1,024
Threads: 8
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
16
So, now rumors that the Fed will buy up junk bonds:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-ma...2020-04-08
There has already been a huge increase in "fallen angels" (former investment grade dropping to junk on credit downgrades), and the spread between the Fed's 0% rates for its Primary Dealers and what banks are willing to lend to businesses is huge (reports that Tilman Fertitta is seeking financing at 15% to save his casino/restaurant empire, which is admittedly one of the riskiest lending sectors right now).
Should be real interesting once significant percentages of former investment grade and newly minted junk go into default.
Posts: 1,024
Threads: 8
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
16
Looks like it is official. Free money to speculators who invested in junk:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/fed-fire...bonds.html
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
04-09-2020, 10:47 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2020, 10:48 AM by fenders53.)
(04-09-2020, 10:24 AM)Otter Wrote: So, now rumors that the Fed will buy up junk bonds:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-ma...2020-04-08
There has already been a huge increase in "fallen angels" (former investment grade dropping to junk on credit downgrades), and the spread between the Fed's 0% rates for its Primary Dealers and what banks are willing to lend to businesses is huge (reports that Tilman Fertitta is seeking financing at 15% to save his casino/restaurant empire, which is admittedly one of the riskiest lending sectors right now).
Should be real interesting once significant percentages of former investment grade and newly minted junk go into default.
I saw discussion of this a week ago. This is all about a reasonable enough economy to win an election. Get about anything you want as long as you allow the other side to give gifts to their base too. Probably fighting over 3% of the vote that is actually undecided. It's so transparent. Almost any Biz can get a loan as long as you agree to a few rules, and those rules may be negotiable if you threaten to just lay off your workforce and skip the help.
Posts: 6,404
Threads: 47
Joined: Aug 2018
Reputation:
63
Letting the USO put trade ride. I'm up finally. Let the deal settle in over the weekend. Short of cruise missiles flying oil is not going to launch higher soon.
|
