Table Pounding Buys MAR 2020

[Kerim]

Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...

[Binary]

(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...

Bought it today, first purchase. Extreme FCF coverage, great historical yield and a veeeery long streak of raises. Was on my bucket list for a long time.

[Kerim]

(03-16-2020, 02:50 PM)Binary Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...

Bought it today, first purchase. Extreme FCF coverage, great historical yield and a veeeery long streak of raises. Was on my bucket list for a long time.

I wonder why Buffett / BRK hasn't bought it yet. Seems like a perfect fit in terms of size, value, values, and industry.

[benjamen]

(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...

A lot of insurance company’s are diving right now for no reason I can find. I have already picked up AFL and PRU, but there are many others like MET and TRV!


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[DividendGarden]

(03-16-2020, 04:13 PM)Kerim Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 02:50 PM)Binary Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...

Bought it today, first purchase. Extreme FCF coverage, great historical yield and a veeeery long streak of raises. Was on my bucket list for a long time.

I wonder why Buffett / BRK hasn't bought it yet. Seems like a perfect fit in terms of size, value, values, and industry.

I've been wondering that for years.

[fenders53]

(03-16-2020, 05:55 PM)benjamen Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 02:33 PM)Kerim Wrote: Anyone looking at AFL? P/E never seems to get to high, but it is under 7 right now. Are they going to get crushed with coronavirus related claims, or are they just down along with everything else? I know the yield is hard to get excited about with some of the other opportunities right now, but still...

A lot of insurance company’s are diving right now for no reason I can find.  I have already picked up AFL and PRU, but there are many others like MET and TRV!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

benjamin

I'm no insurance expert but zero interest rates will hurt profitability.  They rely on spreads for some of their products just as a bank does.  

Annuities would be an example.  They sell an annuity and promise a future payment.  They need to safely invest the proceeds at a higher rate so they can profit.  That doesn't work when a long dated treasury bills etc are well under 2%.  You'll have no interest in an annuity that basically just gives your money back + 0-1% later.  Same deal with pensions they manage.  They count on earnings from those funds until the payouts.  Casualty insurers are required by law to maintain a large cash reserve to pay claims.  They have lost much of the yield on that money too.  They have other ways to produce revenue, and the 50% selloff seems way overdone.  We need to see updated earnings guidance before we really know what they are worth.  Revenue and earnings guidance will certainly be lowered.

[EricL]

Doesn't BRK already own Geico and have an insurance business of its own? Maybe there is enough cross-markets there that it wouldn't make sense or there are regulatory hurdles to buying Aflac.

[fenders53]

(03-17-2020, 01:36 AM)EricL Wrote: Doesn't BRK already own Geico and have an insurance business of its own? Maybe there is enough cross-markets there that it wouldn't make sense or there are regulatory hurdles to buying Aflac.

I think that is accurate.  Add in the 15 banks he owns and they are probably about as interest sensitive as they care to be.  I do think he will swoop down and grab some wounded companies by summer/fall .  If they don't I wouldn't be a pleased BRK shareholder.  I'm real curious what they buy next.  I think energy and finance are off the table but we'll see. Some of the airlines may be looking for a loan shark with deep pockets soon. He's warmed up some to that sector the past year or so.

[crimsonghost747]

Took a look at Disney.
I was surprised to see that their park business was a massive part of their overall revenue and earnings. I really expected it to be smaller compared to the rest. So there is that, and then I do recall some ESPN issues a while back, which are probably only going to get worse now that the majority of sports has been cancelled.

A great company, no doubt about it. And I would have been happy to buy it under $100 before this virus thing happened. But now I'd like to see it fall down further before I initiate a position.

[EricL]

(03-17-2020, 09:58 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Took a look at Disney.
I was surprised to see that their park business was a massive part of their overall revenue and earnings. I really expected it to be smaller compared to the rest. So there is that, and then I do recall some ESPN issues a while back, which are probably only going to get worse now that the majority of sports has been cancelled.

A great company, no doubt about it. And I would have been happy to buy it under $100 before this virus thing happened. But now I'd like to see it fall down further before I initiate a position.

I agree, DIS could see a huge hit in earnings. Movie theaters and parks are closed, and pro sports leagues are cancelled, which will likely have a huge impact on ad revenue.

It's a strong company that will be just fine long-term, but I have a feeling it's going to get a bit cheaper yet before we're all said and done with COVID-19.

[DividendGarden]

(03-17-2020, 10:03 AM)EricL Wrote:

(03-17-2020, 09:58 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Took a look at Disney.
I was surprised to see that their park business was a massive part of their overall revenue and earnings. I really expected it to be smaller compared to the rest. So there is that, and then I do recall some ESPN issues a while back, which are probably only going to get worse now that the majority of sports has been cancelled.

A great company, no doubt about it. And I would have been happy to buy it under $100 before this virus thing happened. But now I'd like to see it fall down further before I initiate a position.

I agree, DIS could see a huge hit in earnings. Movie theaters and parks are closed, and pro sports leagues are cancelled, which will likely have a huge impact on ad revenue.

It's a strong company that will be just fine long-term, but I have a feeling it's going to get a bit cheaper yet before we're all said and done with COVID-19.

I agree with both of you.  So at what price would you really load up on DIS at?

[fenders53]

(03-17-2020, 09:58 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: Took a look at Disney.
I was surprised to see that their park business was a massive part of their overall revenue and earnings. I really expected it to be smaller compared to the rest. So there is that, and then I do recall some ESPN issues a while back, which are probably only going to get worse now that the majority of sports has been cancelled.

A great company, no doubt about it. And I would have been happy to buy it under $100 before this virus thing happened. But now I'd like to see it fall down further before I initiate a position.

It's an average in sort of deal IMO.  Their streaming service is killing it last report I saw.  The parks will be open before you know it.  They are in warm climates mostly.  Some trips will be deferred rather than cancelled.  I only own a small position.  Not trying to be in denial but DIS will be fine. I'd be OK with some cheaper shares though lol. That said, I can think if a good reason to not buy anything until it trades for a 5 PE just to be safe.