Table Pounding Buys MAR 2020

[fenders53]

I think this might actually be useful.  Everything is on sale lol.  But some sales are more obvious than others.I'm sure anyone with a little or a lot of cash has something at the top of their buy list.  I completely '"get it", the market is currently in free fall.  I don't really want to discuss the exact bottom predictions.  No excessive negativity.  If you think we are in for a five year bear market, please start another thread and I'll debate you there.  I guess the the question if you had to make a fairly large purchase soon, what appears to be trading at huge and irrational discount?  You are going to hold this stock for years, but you expect an above market rebound later this year.  You don't have to go all in on it tomorrow.  Don't list 27 stocks with no explanation please.  I guess follow this format more of less.  If you can, give us a sentence more than it's way cheaper than it was before the mark melted.  

LMT- Down about the market average of 25%.  Budget is locked and they have lucrative contracts.  Practically zero economy risk.  I think they are going down as part of every major index and industrial ETF.  They were being upgraded last month.

CBRL- Down over 50%.  Nice dividend.  I get it people may hole up for awhile due to the flu.  Is this major restaurant chain worth half suddenly because we are getting close?  I have a full position and I am very tempted to add on every dip if I have to sell something else to do it.  Or maybe now and forever America will re-learn to cook and stay home.    This is a conviction pick for me.  I bet there are other restaurants picks, or is just Cracker Barrel going out of business?  It was last priced like this in 2014.  Seems like an excessive correction to me.  I do expect a bad quarter.  

MET or PRU- Low interest rates are going to hurt them.  MET has managed the 401K and retirement annuities for the zillion US GOV employees since forever.  They manage other pensions too.  I know less about Prudential.  They both sell life insurance.  Share price looks like they are going out of business.  It looks irrational to me.  MET is down almost 50%, PRU is closer to down 60%+ with a Div now approaching 8%.  Div payout ratios need confirmed with update earnings guidance.  The price targets last month were/are well over a double from here.              

Feel free to disagree. SPY Strike 1500 puts is the incorrect answer, even if it isn't lol.

[Kerim]

Great thread idea, thanks! I haven't updated my stock sheets in a really long time, so I am flying a bit blind right now, making small purchases on gut feeling rather than analysis. If I can get around to doing that soon, I'll post my hottest prospects based on actual reasons.

I've been nibbling on DIS under some of the same logic you've applied to CBL. Yes, shutting the parks during this crisis is going to hurt, but it is a behemoth with a killer business that feels about as safe as possible long term. I've wanted some shares for a long time, and when it ran past $100 a couple / few years ago, I thought I had missed out. It is even stronger now (I think?), and back on sale at those prices I was sad to have missed.

Completely agree with you that LMT is a beast. And a very safe on long-term. But hard for me to contemplate buying here -- even at this large discount from the top -- because I am anchored on the $88 to $93 per share I picked it up for back in late 2012 and early 2013 during the "sequester" scare. It was yielding 5 percent back then!

[fenders53]

I saw you added DIS. Good move down here IMO. I added a small position in DIS back to my port this week. You are right they are not just about parks. They have some strong momentum with their new video service, and of course they are content kings since forever. This may be out of date but I have heard they are trying to keep Disney World open through spring break. If they close all their parks that will be my day to add more when the stock gets hit on the news. Trouble with your European park too as expected. No matter what the market is doing that day I plan to add if they have closures. I wish they would be more consistent with DIV growth. It will run back to $140, but it was already there and labored a lot of years prior. A bit like Deere. Too big to grow fast so give us our dividend please. It's a safe stock though. No need to scour their reports for big problems.

I like LMT a lot but there will be a day when trimming will be advisable. The defense budget is ludicrous and won't last forever. $90 isn't coming back. They have very long contracts though. Fighter jet contracts are 10+ year programs. If you made me put all my money in just three stocks LMT might be one of them. Most all of the defense stocks will come screaming out of this correction if the recession isn't to harsh. LHX looks good. Raytheon has some baggage now because their merger partner UTX has exposure to BA passenger/commercial air.

EDIT: Scratch that, Disney World just closed for at least three weeks.

[EricL]

Some that interesting to me on my watch lists.

D, DTE, SRE, SWX for utilities.

ABBV, AMGN, BMY, PFE, SYK for health care.

ADM, SYY for consumer staples.

GPC, HAS, LOW, SBUX, TSCO, VFC for discretionary.

CAT, CMI, LMT, NSC, RTN, UNP, UPS for industrials.

[Kerim]

I think this thread deserves more attention. My hope is to identify the absolute best of the best long term names, and of those, identify the best rare opportunities. Very frustrated that I haven't had much opportunity to do any real analysis. May try to start today.

[fenders53]

(03-16-2020, 08:59 AM)Kerim Wrote: I think this thread deserves more attention. My hope is to identify the absolute best of the best long term names, and of those, identify the best rare opportunities. Very frustrated that I haven't had much opportunity to do any real analysis. May try to start today.

I try to start threads but they are largely ignored.  Our "what did you buy thread" is our chat thread.

WELL is a strong buy here. I'm skeptical of analysts but I do have some faith in CFRA reports. They had a strong buy on WELL at 80 but downgraded for valuation $40 ago and haven't updated lately. WELL is similar to VTR but they were executing better before the market crashed. The virus fear and exposure to rest homes has caused the monster drop in SP. It seems to me about any business could be exposed to lawsuit risk. That can't happen without crushing the entire US economy. It's not logical that all businesses that act in good faith could be held accountable for a highly contagious virus.

PRU now at a PE of about 4 and a sky high dividend. 100yr old company with a solid brand. Same story with MET.

[Otter]

My five, which I just purchased or added to, are:

ADP (Automated payroll services remain useful in a work-remotely environment. Payrolls overall will drop and hurt earnings, but this thing has been a cash machine for the past decade, and has 44 years of dividend growth under its belt)

DEO (Booze. People like alcohol. Especially during dark financial/social times)

JPM (Too big to fail, nicely priced now)

LDOS (Defense/Intel Agency Contractor for IT services, which also operates in the private sector. They have won some big defense contracts the past several years).

LMT (Another defense contracting stalwart)

[fenders53]

Otter, those are good pics I own or have owned, though I don't know DEO. Sin stocks are great recession pics, as long as you don't overpay. The bull has taken almost all of the safe picks well out of the zone, but they are rapidly coming back to the buy range now.

[Otter]

(03-16-2020, 11:18 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Otter, those are good pics I own or have owned, though I don't know DEO.  Sin stocks are great recession pics, as long as you don't overpay.  The bull has taken almost all of the safe picks well out of the zone, but they are rapidly coming back to the buy range now.

Diageo has 29 years of dividend growth under its belt, and is a U.K. Dividend Champion (dividends are paid in GBP, so subject to currency fluctuations). Their brand portfolio is pretty impressive in the liquor space:

https://www.diageo.com/en/our-brands/bra...roduction/

BF.B is still crazy overvalued, but I like DEO at these prices (it's around where I last made purchases three years ago).

Edited to add - U.K. company, so no dividend withholding tax for U.S. investors, but there is a small ADR fee.

[fenders53]

(03-16-2020, 11:58 AM)Otter Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 11:18 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Otter, those are good pics I own or have owned, though I don't know DEO.  Sin stocks are great recession pics, as long as you don't overpay.  The bull has taken almost all of the safe picks well out of the zone, but they are rapidly coming back to the buy range now.

Diageo has 29 years of dividend growth under its belt, and is a U.K. Dividend Champion (dividends are paid in GBP, so subject to currency fluctuations). Their brand portfolio is pretty impressive in the liquor space:

https://www.diageo.com/en/our-brands/bra...roduction/

BF.B is still crazy overvalued, but I like DEO at these prices (it's around where I last made purchases three years ago).

Edited to add - U.K. company, so no dividend withholding tax for U.S. investors, but there is a small ADR fee.

The ADR fees can be ignored with the dividends we are chasing.  It's a rounding error when you are buying a stock that offers double the typical SPY div yield.

Medtronic (MDT) is starting to get deep in the buy range. I may add a few shares today.

[Otter]

(03-16-2020, 12:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 11:58 AM)Otter Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 11:18 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Otter, those are good pics I own or have owned, though I don't know DEO.  Sin stocks are great recession pics, as long as you don't overpay.  The bull has taken almost all of the safe picks well out of the zone, but they are rapidly coming back to the buy range now.

Diageo has 29 years of dividend growth under its belt, and is a U.K. Dividend Champion (dividends are paid in GBP, so subject to currency fluctuations). Their brand portfolio is pretty impressive in the liquor space:

https://www.diageo.com/en/our-brands/bra...roduction/

BF.B is still crazy overvalued, but I like DEO at these prices (it's around where I last made purchases three years ago).

Edited to add - U.K. company, so no dividend withholding tax for U.S. investors, but there is a small ADR fee.

The ADR fees can be ignored with the dividends we are chasing.  It's a rounding error when you are buying a stock that offers double the typical SPY div yield.

Medtronic (MDT) is starting to get deep in the buy range.  I may add a few shares today.

MDT is on my list, as well. It will be a new position once opened. About as good as it gets in the medical devices field.

[fenders53]

(03-16-2020, 12:47 PM)Otter Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 12:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 11:58 AM)Otter Wrote:

(03-16-2020, 11:18 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Otter, those are good pics I own or have owned, though I don't know DEO.  Sin stocks are great recession pics, as long as you don't overpay.  The bull has taken almost all of the safe picks well out of the zone, but they are rapidly coming back to the buy range now.

Diageo has 29 years of dividend growth under its belt, and is a U.K. Dividend Champion (dividends are paid in GBP, so subject to currency fluctuations). Their brand portfolio is pretty impressive in the liquor space:

https://www.diageo.com/en/our-brands/bra...roduction/

BF.B is still crazy overvalued, but I like DEO at these prices (it's around where I last made purchases three years ago).

Edited to add - U.K. company, so no dividend withholding tax for U.S. investors, but there is a small ADR fee.

The ADR fees can be ignored with the dividends we are chasing.  It's a rounding error when you are buying a stock that offers double the typical SPY div yield.

Medtronic (MDT) is starting to get deep in the buy range.  I may add a few shares today.

MDT is on my list, as well. It will be a new position once opened. About as good as it gets in the medical devices field.

They benefit like a Pharma stock, but fly under the radar of the politicians for excessive pricing.  They probably shouldn't, but they seem to. MDT is probably a good idea anywhere under $100 and they are way south of that now.