The Speculative Stocks....

[vbin]

Feb Phone sales down 55% in China compared to a year ago. Apple quarterly will be wiped out.

[fenders53]

(03-09-2020, 01:31 PM)vbin Wrote: Feb Phone sales down 55% in China compared to a year ago. Apple quarterly will be wiped out.

That wasn't hard to see coming but they have a zillion dollars of cash on the balance sheet. I'll wait for my re-entry.  I left AAPL too early in 2019 via a covered call sell .  Not sure I will be completely vindicated, but I'll find an entry I am comfortable with.  Probably early for AAPL IMO, but the market has priced in some very, very bad news on boring stocks with well above market Divs.  That will make me smile next year and beyond.

[vbin]

(03-09-2020, 01:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-09-2020, 01:31 PM)vbin Wrote: Feb Phone sales down 55% in China compared to a year ago. Apple quarterly will be wiped out.

That wasn't hard to see coming but they have a zillion dollars of cash on the balance sheet. I'll wait for my re-entry.  I left AAPL too early in 2019 via a covered call sell .  Not sure I will be completely vindicated, but I'll find an entry I am comfortable with.  Probably early for AAPL IMO, but the market has priced in some very, very bad news on boring stocks with well above market Divs.  That will make me smile next year and beyond.

Great, I would not have been able to put a number that it will be down by 55%. But it gives a prospective on how much other sectors will be impacted and that impact on economy.

[fenders53]

it will be interesting as earning pre-announcements come in. It's already over-baked in 2X in some stock prices, and not so much in others. It wasn't hard to figure out AAPL was gonna get hit over a month ago with China shut down. The stock drops 5-10% and people jump in like it's actually on sale. It's nowhere close to my buy list.

[fenders53]

OLN which I have been touting as a decent spec stock has been beaten up severely. They sell chemicals and were taking behind the woodshed with DOW and the rest. If there is a silver lining I guess I get a decent dividend while I wait. I think I will continue to make a semi-secure dividend part of my requirements for a spec stock picks.

[fenders53]

(03-09-2020, 09:37 AM)Otter Wrote: Still sitting on Puts.

Otter, I hope you'll accept my sincere apology for losing my cool and calling you out on this post.  I lost a ton of paper money the past few weeks (yesterday was particularly horrible), and I was half cash when this all started.  It has to be much worse for other DGI investors who are younger and buy and hold with little cash.  (as it should be).  If I thought you were just gloating I should have called you out via PM rather than publicly.  But I did it in public so I'll apologize in public too.  You have always been are an asset to this forum.

[Otter]

(03-10-2020, 11:46 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-09-2020, 09:37 AM)Otter Wrote: Still sitting on Puts.

Otter, I hope you'll accept my sincere apology for losing my cool and calling you out on this post.  I lost a ton of paper money the past few weeks (yesterday was particularly horrible), and I was half cash when this all started.  It has to be much worse for other DGI investors who are younger and buy and hold with little cash.  (as it should be).  If I thought you were just gloating I should have called you out via PM rather than publicly.  But I did it in public so I'll apologize in public too.  You have always been are an asset to this forum.

No worries, fenders. I have enjoyed seeing your and others' ideas here over time, and bouncing ideas off of folks here. It is a good community. Volatility is stressful for everyone.

[fenders53]

(03-10-2020, 01:53 PM)Otter Wrote:

(03-10-2020, 11:46 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-09-2020, 09:37 AM)Otter Wrote: Still sitting on Puts.

Otter, I hope you'll accept my sincere apology for losing my cool and calling you out on this post.  I lost a ton of paper money the past few weeks (yesterday was particularly horrible), and I was half cash when this all started.  It has to be much worse for other DGI investors who are younger and buy and hold with little cash.  (as it should be).  If I thought you were just gloating I should have called you out via PM rather than publicly.  But I did it in public so I'll apologize in public too.  You have always been are an asset to this forum.

No worries, fenders. I have enjoyed seeing your and others' ideas here over time, and bouncing ideas off of folks here. It is a good community. Volatility is stressful for everyone.

It has been stressful.  They say every bear market (or hard correction) is different.  Wow is that an understatement.  This isn't my first crash.  Not the first time I've had large paper losses.  But I've never seen anything like this.  It feels something like this has been going on.....

DAY 1-  The virus is coming! Some companies will see their earnings hurt, DOW drops a couple thousand
DAY 2- Maybe it won't be so bad, DOW runs up 1000 points like 10 blue chips just crushed earnings
DAY 3-Just kidding, we're all gonna die and the oil market is ruined forever, DOW drops 2000 
DAY 4- AAPL and DAL are gonna blow earnings bad, that's OK, we love those sector leaders, DOW goes up 500
DAY 5- We're all gonna die for sure, this time we really mean it, market trips circuit breakers

I got the order of events wrong of course, but it's been that nonsensical and only machines trading algos can make that happen. Humans are just not that bi-polar from one hour to the next.  This is just not normal.  Meanwhile, I'm trying to build 12 new positions and I don't know for sure if I have three days or a year to get it done.  I just know I have too much cash.  I feel like a lab rat that has been conditioned to buy every 3% dip because it's worked for years.  Snooze and you lose.  

The one thing I am pretty sure of, I better not be short so much as a covered call when the virus slows down and the election is approaching or I'll be sorry.  The President will cut taxes to zero, bail out every industry that's in trouble, and take the Statue of Liberty to a pawn shop if he has to.  I'm as sure as that as you were sure the virus would crash the market.   We have some more up and down 2000 pt days coming IMO.

[stockguru]

In these times everything is speculative lol

[fenders53]

(03-11-2020, 02:32 PM)stockguru Wrote: In these times everything is speculative lol

Indeed.  I think I own about three stocks that haven't been crushed.  JNJ-PEP-XEL.  Half my port is sitting near 52 week lows, and several much worse.  It's been brutal.

[EricL]

(03-11-2020, 03:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-11-2020, 02:32 PM)stockguru Wrote: In these times everything is speculative lol

Indeed.  I think I own about three stocks that haven't been crushed.  JNJ-PEP-XEL.  Half my port is sitting near 52 week lows, and several much worse.  It's been brutal.

I have just five stocks that are down less than 10% from 52-week highs.

AWK, DLR, UNH, WEC, and XEL.

DLR was actually in the green today, and sits just 1.05% from its all-time high.

Fortunately for me, it's the largest position in my portfolio.

[fenders53]

I guess I actually had a few more than three out of my 30 stock port, but I sold off most of my UTEs near the high and bought some of them back the past few days. I just didn't trust them. I definitely have about 5 stocks that were destroyed. Not core positions but it was definitely bad enough to really wreck my month. I am just barely better off than SPX with a fairly conservative port. I got lucky during the late 2018 correction. A new port and was mostly UTES. They generally went higher or sideways with the same 20% market drop we are seeing now. I thought it might be different this time with PEs that ballooned 25% or more. I expected the same from consumer staples but the hoarding theme is holding them up so far. I'm just never comfortable holding way over valued anything when it hits the fan. They'll almost always capitulate at some point. The inability to buy bonds for the foreseeable future is really complicating this for an investor that should be conservative. I should put some cash back, but my gut says do it very slowly or I risk missing a big ride I am in position to benefit from at some point.