The Speculative Stocks....

[crimsonghost747]

(03-02-2020, 09:47 AM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, so what does "shorting the Frenchies mean?"

I put a short on the French main index, CAC40. This is a pure virus play.


The virus, if it manages to spread as it currently has, should hit there properly in about a week or so. They aren't doing too well on the economic side anyway and there is a lot of social tension there mainly with the immigrants. Plus, they are already super dissatisfied with the government (yet again) and they actually have a tendency to do something about it rather than cry on social media.

Plus it has a pretty nice composition for this virus scare: travel companies, oil, automobile industry and of course a couple of luxury products companies. I see all of those suffering pretty badly if this thing.

[fenders53]

(03-02-2020, 09:16 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:

(03-02-2020, 09:47 AM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, so what does "shorting the Frenchies mean?"

I put a short on the French main index, CAC40. This is a pure virus play.


The virus, if it manages to spread as it currently has, should hit there properly in about a week or so. They aren't doing too well on the economic side anyway and there is a lot of social tension there mainly with the immigrants. Plus, they are already super dissatisfied with the government (yet again) and they actually have a tendency to do something about it rather than cry on social media.

Plus it has a pretty nice composition for this virus scare: travel companies, oil, automobile industry and of course a couple of luxury products companies. I see all of those suffering pretty badly if this thing.

I figured it was probably an index.

[Otter]

That was a fun ride. Am done with UVXY. Enjoyed the gains. Still sitting on my Puts. Parking that cash on the sidelines and waiting for better entry points (SPY 260 is roughly TTM P/E of 15). 

[NilesMike]

Great timing! UVXY can be a beast with the readjustment drag.

Well done.

[fenders53]

Nice trade Otter!   Looks like a double from here.  What was the approximate price range on that during the time you owned it?

[Otter]

I made purchases of UVXY between 2/11 and 2/18, and sold all of it on 3/2. It's possible there's another huge volatility spike out there, but I felt comfortable taking a double off the table. UVXY is like playing with dynamite, and I'm happy to walk away after the roulette wheel hit. 

[vbin]

Closed my spy puts today, lol and bought leap calls on oil. Big money is following oil and I am sure airlines will start hedging soon.

[fenders53]

(03-05-2020, 02:04 PM)vbin Wrote: Closed my spy puts today, lol and bought leap calls on oil. Big money is following oil and I am sure airlines will start hedging soon.

Why would you even dream of closing out the puts when you have been telling us the the sky is falling? 

Just kidding, this isn't easy to navigate for sure.

[vbin]

(03-05-2020, 02:47 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-05-2020, 02:04 PM)vbin Wrote: Closed my spy puts today, lol and bought leap calls on oil. Big money is following oil and I am sure airlines will start hedging soon.

Why would you even dream of closing out the puts when you have been telling us the the sky is falling? 

Just kidding, this isn't easy to navigate for sure.

I ain't saying sky is falling. Just sharing the data and sentiments here. Seems like other folks here expected the correction as well otherwise why are they in cash? About puts: Don't wanna leave money on the table. Within my view, I see a strong support at 3000 but also think that we will break it very soon. Market dont go down in a straight line. There will be another day to buy puts again. Tomorrow a lot of puts will be expiring, who knows if market will squeeze them. Weekend can bring more uncertainty either positive or negative developments( I think it will be negative). The profits I had right now on my put insurances were certain so took them off the table.

PS: I called out crona is going to get worse than everyone expected a while back on this forum based on the info I was getting from China. Not saying I can predict but in all honesty I just tried sharing what I learned.

[vbin]

Bought leap calls on BB, OXY, BKR. OPEC cutting production and post crona scare everyone will want to travel and do things they cancelled. oil has a good chance to go up. But hey it's all speculation, lol.

[fenders53]

Thanks for keeping a sense of humor.  If we don't cash out we are dancing through a minefield.  And if this crashes hard, you, Otter and Dalio warned us.  But you haven't left the casino either so don't rub it in too much lol.

[Otter]

(03-05-2020, 02:04 PM)vbin Wrote: Closed my spy puts today, lol and bought leap calls on oil. Big money is following oil and I am sure airlines will start hedging soon.

My short thesis has not changed, and my puts are long-dated. So, trying to ignore the day-to-day volatility and keep my eye on epidemiological developments (case numbers, % hospitalized, % in ICU, case fatality rates), and data relating to economic/societal impacts. Will sell if the data changes my thesis. I still think SPY 260 is extremely likely (TTM P/E of about 15). That is only a 23% drop from the recent highs, and just barely into official bear market territory. All of my puts should be deep ITM at that point (well, maybe not TSLA), and discount for time value should be negligible. I will probably start to unload some around that point, so I can begin to deploy some of the proceeds on the long side.

Again, if circumstances appear to change materially from my standpoint, out come the sell to close orders.