Utilities sector

[fenders53]

It's just such a weird situation. I don't ever recall a time most Utes appear uninvestable on valuation. It's a lot like bidding up a 3% yielding bond 50% or more in some cases. REITs and financials like insurance seem to be one of the few places to get around so4% without excessive valuation or an industry with severe headwinds.

[EricL]

(02-20-2020, 05:01 PM)fenders53 Wrote: It's just such a weird situation. I don't ever recall a time most Utes appear uninvestable on valuation. It's a lot like bidding up a 3% yielding bond 50% or more in some cases. REITs and financials like insurance seem to be one of the few places to get around so4% without excessive valuation or an industry with severe headwinds.

I actually put together a sample 4% yielding portfolio for my dad the other day, so I know it can still be done. There's some 4%+ yielders in quite a few sectors, and blending the higher yields with 3% in others I built a twenty-five stock portfolio with an overall yield of 4.1%.

[fenders53]

(02-20-2020, 11:56 PM)EricL Wrote:

(02-20-2020, 05:01 PM)fenders53 Wrote: It's just such a weird situation.  I don't ever recall a time most Utes appear uninvestable on valuation.  It's a lot like bidding up a 3% yielding bond 50% or more in some cases.  REITs and financials like insurance seem to be one of the few places to get around so4% without excessive valuation or an industry with severe headwinds.

I actually put together a sample 4% yielding portfolio for my dad the other day, so I know it can still be done. There's some 4%+ yielders in quite a few sectors, and blending the higher yields with 3% in others I built a twenty-five stock portfolio with an overall yield of 4.1%.

Yes of course you can, but it's just getting a lot tougher.  MUCH easier if you are willing to throw a little into sectors with a more sketchy future to average it out to 4%.  Most of us here are willing to do that.  You have to be willing to accept a little more risk if you want double the return of a 10 year treasury.  That's how that risk reward thing usually works.   

I'd be interested to see your model portfolio.

[EricL]

(02-21-2020, 08:35 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-20-2020, 11:56 PM)EricL Wrote:

(02-20-2020, 05:01 PM)fenders53 Wrote: It's just such a weird situation.  I don't ever recall a time most Utes appear uninvestable on valuation.  It's a lot like bidding up a 3% yielding bond 50% or more in some cases.  REITs and financials like insurance seem to be one of the few places to get around so4% without excessive valuation or an industry with severe headwinds.

I actually put together a sample 4% yielding portfolio for my dad the other day, so I know it can still be done. There's some 4%+ yielders in quite a few sectors, and blending the higher yields with 3% in others I built a twenty-five stock portfolio with an overall yield of 4.1%.

Yes of course you can, but it's just getting a lot tougher.  MUCH easier if you are willing to throw a little into sectors with a more sketchy future to average it out to 4%.  Most of us here are willing to do that.  You have to be willing to accept a little more risk if you want double the return of a 10 year treasury.  That's how that risk reward thing usually works.   

I'd be interested to see your model portfolio.

Oh yeah, they definitely aren't all darlings of the market right now, that's for sure!

But I do think think they all have safe dividends anyways.

Here are the 25: CBRL, GPC, MO, KMB, PEP, CVX, XOM, TROW, WFC, ABBV, PFE, JNJ, MMM, UPS, AVGO, CSCO, IBM, DLR, O, SPG, T, VZ, D, SO, DUK

Pretty well equally weighting, with a slight lean towards the higher yielders. Overall portfolio yield of 4.11% as of this morning.

[fenders53]

I own almost half of those, and the virtual equivalent of several more. That's a safe enough port for an income investor. I'd like to believe most of the beatings have already been administered lol.

[fenders53]

More "on topic"

Eric, I wanted to thank you again for your website. It is a very handy resource that I use to check on my all of my utility holdings from time to time. In addition to your updated narratives, it's a good place to launch to all the company websites and check out earnings call presentations. I try to review all the quarterly slide decks but I get behind. Your site makes it easier to catch up.

I own PPL but didn't really research it properly as it's a small position. I obviously knew the current yield is quite high, but wasn't aware their div growth rate was lackluster for 10 years or more compared to peers. I pulled up a chart with XEL, and PPL has been VERY volatile for many years. Nothing like a typical utility chart. I need to do some digging and find out why. I don't know what their US/UK business mix has been over the years. Perhaps that is the answer. XEL was a rough ride as well, but that was way back pre-merger when they were Northern States Power. Non-stop good things have happened since then. I will continue to follow a lot of Utes, but for my core positions I think I need rotate to a more "flight to quality" for my core Ute holdings. I think I'd be less inclined to be trimming at times like these which may or may not be the new "normal". I have a feeling the five year periods of extremely low volatility are gone for a long while.

That said, it's OK for you to buy all of them. I know you'll help me keep a better eye on them lol.

[EricL]

(02-22-2020, 11:07 AM)fenders53 Wrote: More "on topic"  

Eric, I wanted to thank you again for your website.  It is a very handy resource that I use to check on my all of my utility holdings from time to time.  In addition to your updated narratives, it's a good place to launch to all the company websites and check out earnings call presentations.  I try to review all the quarterly slide decks but I get behind.  Your site makes it easier to catch up.  

I own PPL but didn't really research it properly as it's a small position.  I obviously knew the current yield is quite high, but wasn't aware their div growth rate was lackluster for 10 years or more compared to peers.  I pulled up a chart  with XEL, and PPL has been VERY volatile for many years.  Nothing like a typical utility chart.  I need to do some digging and find out why.  I don't know what their US/UK business mix has been over the years.  Perhaps that is the answer.  XEL was a rough ride as well, but that was way back pre-merger when they were Northern States Power.  Non-stop good things have happened since then.  I will continue to follow a lot of Utes, but for my core positions I think I need rotate to a more "flight to quality" for my core Ute holdings.  I think I'd be less inclined to be trimming  at times like these which may or may not be the new "normal".  I have a feeling the five year periods of extremely low volatility are gone for a long while.  

That said, it's OK for you to buy all of them.  I know you'll help me keep a better eye on them lol.

Thanks for that, I really appreciate the kind words.

My intent with that page is to make it the go-to page for utility investors, and to build it up to rank high in search. So hearing that you are using it like I intended is wonderful.

I've noticed that link clicks to corporate IR have steadily been increasing since I added with the last update, so it's great to hear that you are finding them useful.

I'm always open for feedback, so if you can think of any other useful information that is missing that you'd like added, I'm all ears.

As for PPL, I don't have too much to add. I think the UK portion of the business is a drag and may be what is holding it back. The yield is great, but you're certainly giving up some growth to get it.

I currently own AWK, D, NEE, XEL and WEC for utilities, so I certainly don't own them all. Others that interest me most are probably AEP, DTE, OGE, and SRE, but I don't see any as compelling buys at current prices.

Best,

Eric

[fenders53]

(02-24-2020, 01:21 AM)EricL Wrote:

(02-22-2020, 11:07 AM)fenders53 Wrote: More "on topic"  

Eric, I wanted to thank you again for your website.  It is a very handy resource that I use to check on my all of my utility holdings from time to time.  In addition to your updated narratives, it's a good place to launch to all the company websites and check out earnings call presentations.  I try to review all the quarterly slide decks but I get behind.  Your site makes it easier to catch up.  

I own PPL but didn't really research it properly as it's a small position.  I obviously knew the current yield is quite high, but wasn't aware their div growth rate was lackluster for 10 years or more compared to peers.  I pulled up a chart  with XEL, and PPL has been VERY volatile for many years.  Nothing like a typical utility chart.  I need to do some digging and find out why.  I don't know what their US/UK business mix has been over the years.  Perhaps that is the answer.  XEL was a rough ride as well, but that was way back pre-merger when they were Northern States Power.  Non-stop good things have happened since then.  I will continue to follow a lot of Utes, but for my core positions I think I need rotate to a more "flight to quality" for my core Ute holdings.  I think I'd be less inclined to be trimming  at times like these which may or may not be the new "normal".  I have a feeling the five year periods of extremely low volatility are gone for a long while.  

That said, it's OK for you to buy all of them.  I know you'll help me keep a better eye on them lol.

Thanks for that, I really appreciate the kind words.

My intent with that page is to make it the go-to page for utility investors, and to build it up to rank high in search. So hearing that you are using it like I intended is wonderful.

I've noticed that link clicks to corporate IR have steadily been increasing since I added with the last update, so it's great to hear that you are finding them useful.

I'm always open for feedback, so if you can think of any other useful information that is missing that you'd like added, I'm all ears.

As for PPL, I don't have too much to add. I think the UK portion of the business is a drag and may be what is holding it back. The yield is great, but you're certainly giving up some growth to get it.

I currently own AWK, D, NEE, XEL and WEC for utilities, so I certainly don't own them all. Others that interest me most are probably AEP, DTE, OGE, and SRE, but I don't see any as compelling buys at current prices.

Best,

Eric

I own basically the same.  XEL is the only one I've held forever.  It's my only "black sky future ten bagger story".  I don't how useful this is to anyone but it's a good memory of my early investing career which was absolutely horrible.  The only way I could buy stocks was to work at night repairing cars because my meager check was gone trying to buy a house and support my wife and daughter.  Even my only "safe" stock was down 50% due to a few of NSPs decisions that killed any hope of near-term profits.  The talking heads completely wrote them off. I remember visiting their home turf and wondering how it could possibly be true that MN and WI is suddenly not going to buy power from NSP?  It wasn't true of course, and averaging down into the bloodbath was one of my best ideas ever.   

I also own NEE, D, WEC and AWK.  NEE and AWK were inspired by your contributions here on on S.A. and they are up nicely.  PPL and EXC are part of my maximize safe income game. I sell puts against them monthly which almost always expire worthless.  AEP is a great UTE.  I just lost my shares being forced to take a nice profit.  I'll survive that lol.  As you know, no quality Utes are anywhere near fairly priced currently.  Patience truly is a virtue. I'll own AEP again.  

As far as your site.  A monthly feature on a Ute might draw some clicks.  It doesn't have to be a ten graph project.  I know that takes time.  Every Ute stock comes with a disclaimer now.  30+ PEs are highly unlikely to be the new norm, but I could be wrong.  The only trend I am confident in is you better get serious about reducing coal and increasing renewables growth while still maintaining some growth.  It seems the public will accept that plan and the GOV will approve the cost of CAPEX.

[EricL]

A bullish utility article from DoctoRx on Seeking Alpha this morning.

Utilities: Making The Case That Their Rally Has More Juice Left

[fenders53]

I am completely on board with the short term thesis. It is the TINA effect right now as far as income goes. You're other choice is consumer staples that are just as overvalued. Those are not better ideas if you consider growth prospects.

[EricL]

For those interested in water utilities, Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) is trading 30% off 52-week highs and yield 2.5%.

This is the old Aqua America (WTR) that changed its name when it completed the acquisition of natural gas distributor Peoples.

[fenders53]

(03-13-2020, 08:57 AM)EricL Wrote: For those interested in water utilities, Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) is trading 30% off 52-week highs and yield 2.5%.

This is the old Aqua America (WTR) that changed its name when it completed the acquisition of natural gas distributor Peoples.

Thanks for the heads up Eric.  I sold most of my UTEs at the beginning of this pullback.  This is a good entry for WTRG.  If the market will go a little red today I'll jump back in.  I like the yield better this time.