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07-27-2018, 02:08 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2021, 07:34 AM by Forticus.
Edit Reason: P.S.
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I have posted the annual review of my portfolio at SA in 2 blogs.
Part 1: long term stuff versus personal benchmarks towards retirement in 2023
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/47427...ual-review
Part 2: individual holdings in June, 4 closed and 29 opened positions since April 2017.
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/47427...ew-part-ii
Thanks to this forum for exchanging ideas over the year.
P.S.: dont understand why the forum doesnt convert the 2nd link to clickable.
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07-30-2018, 08:01 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2018, 09:24 PM by Dividend Watcher.
Edit Reason: My English was really, really bad!
)
Forticus, I see it's been a busy year.
Now that it appears your portfolio is close to completion, are left to adding to positions?
Do you have a goal for how many different companies you plan to hold?
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
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DW,
a year ago, I thought about 33 companies, an average of 3 companies per one of the 11 sectors.
There are some sectors, where I see less: 1 in materials, 2 in industrials, which gives room for more in other sectors.
Until end of this year I like to keep 3% as a full position equivalent, but certainly wil have some at 4% and several with less than 3%.
After changes in July it's 44 companies. I guess the number will be trending sideways between 30 and 50 companies for the next couple of years.
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Today it's 1 year plus 4 months of watching the portfolio and collecting dividends.
If I recall correctly, there was one action since: selling VTRS in Nov'20, spin-off of Pfizer. Counting 42 companies plus 3 spin-offs.
The series of all-time highs is boosted by weakening EUR/US rates.
One reason of that inactivity is, after closing our family business in 2019, we still wait for the 2019 tax settling. Some of the cash in the portfolio is a backup for unexpected taxes. For 2020 and 2021 it looks like the tax on dividends (withheld by the US broker) accounts for a major part of our taxes. Net dividends from 2020 and 2021 may be reinvested.
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Comments on the 16 transactions on Dec 17, 2021, after 1.5 years of watching.
The portfolio is between accumulation phase ( - 2019) and decumulation, currently 1-3 years ahead. Some 10% of the portfolio still need to be held in cash for coincidences (market drop, taxes, decumulation ...).
Set 1 of transactions:
Kicked spin-offs KD, OGN, ONL and closed SPG, a full position, with a loss of 10%.
Proceeds went into O, NNN, MRK, AMGN and ATO - 0.2 FPEs each [1].
O is now overweight 1.2 FPE, AMGN now 1.0 FPE, and ATO a new position.
Set 2:
About half of the dividends of 2021 reinvested into
TD, MDT, LMT, and INTC - 0.2 FPEs each.
TD now overweight, 1.2 FPE, LMT a new position.
Set 3:
In the none-to-low dividend section, GOOGL and AMZN got a boost of 0.4. FPEs each. AMZN now a full postion.
Set 4:
“Closed a position” of 22 CAD, a remnant from transactions in 2020. A fee of 10%, acceptable to get it out of sight. Yet I still see 1 CAD on the list.
Dividend income:
Set 1 was neutral, set 2 increased dividend income by some 1.8%.
Utilities:
That's 4% of the portfolio. After I sold D (dividend cut) and NEE (cash management) in 2020, I kept eyes open for a new no. 3. So that’s ATO, next to SO and DUK which reside at the lower end of quality measures. WEC and more are on watch.
REITs and cyclicals:
In 2020 I could not make my mind up about SPG and NNN. SPG’s cut and the erratic 20-years chart (my Fastgraphs interpretation) doesn’t sound “reliable, predictable and increasing” as some saying goes. I put AVB, ESS and FRT on watch. Some day, there might be a third REIT on board again, or just one survivor. REITs are 5% of the portfolio and will probably stay there. My favoured sector within cyclicals (supersector) are financials with 15.5%, seven stocks, includes V and MA.
Healthcare:
This is our largest sector, 22%, 8 stocks, well within our circle of competence/wellness. Outside the portfolio we hold shares of a pharma cooperative worth 3 FPE, which I’d prefer to trim. [2]
Industrials, 4%:
With LMT now we hold three: MMM, GD and LMT. In general, industrials are outside the spa and holdings may turn out as longterm swingtrades.
Outlook:
No idea when withdrawals are need. Maybe within two years. Until then I might reinvest part of the dividends, switch stock to better DGI measures or just watch.
- - - -
[1] FPE = Full Position Equivalent, used to track cost. 1 FPE is about 1/33 to 1/30 of cost. During accumulation, from 2015 to 2020, the amount of Euro per 1 FPE was increased annually. It reached a factor of 5 over 2015. Meanwhile some stocks are at 1.2 FPE. Of course I run columns for market value. Whenever gains or losses are realized, proceeds will turn to FPEs.
[2] The coop’s share price and dividends are fixed, lit(t!)eraly - until not: in 2020 they cut the dividend by 25%. Since, I try to convince my wife to fade out of the coop instead of withdrawels from the DGI portfolio.
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01-21-2022, 04:33 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-21-2022, 04:34 AM by Forticus.)
(post copied from SA)
For my annual review I take inflation rates to track the buying power of my capital basis ( = money sent to the broker).
Yesterday, our federal institute of statistics [1] published an inflation rate of 3.1% for 2021.
Since I started DGI in 2015, the capital inflation correction now adds 4.9% to the capital basis.
For 2020 inflation was 0.5%. Thus, the 3.1% of 2021 may look bad.
But then, for the duration of the second half of 2020 our VAT was reduced by 3% (covid action). In November, when I heard of 5% month over year inflation rate, it was clear that this included a VAT shift.
To get a better (rose-colored glasses) view on 2021, the recent rolling 3-year averages (CAGR) of inflation rates are 1.6% for 2019, 1.2% for 2020, and 1.7% for 2021. All three are well within the range of the 3-year CAGRs of the last two decades, nothing special.
When I use 3% for upcoming 5 years, the capital inflation correction would add up to 22%.
- - -
[1] destatis.de, Wiesbaden
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2023:
- no buys or sells,
- opened brokerage accounts at a local bank to transfer stock from Interactivebrokers.
This will cost much more fees, even for just keeping stocks in the account, but will simplify tax paper work and just in case I won't be able any longer to handle the portfolio, my wife got "some real guys" in town to talk to.
2024:
- took 4 months to transfer a test-lot from IB via the learning curve to the local bank. Next time it should be under 4 weeks.
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