How Can I Screw This Up?

[ken-do-nim]

(08-03-2021, 05:12 PM)rayray Wrote:

(08-03-2021, 04:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(08-03-2021, 03:52 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: My biggest monetary blunders are:

• getting divorced
  
• as an early investor, I thought you "buy low sell high" so I would find a bargain stock, set my sale price, and hold until it met that price.  Bought Apple at $20/share when they came out with the ipod, sold at $30... it would be worth millions today
  
• cashed out some company stock options too soon, again lost out on millions had I waited longer
  
• got bored owning this "online bookstore" called Amazon, and this electric car company called Tesla, and this movie company that mailed you dvds called Netflix, and sold them and moved on to other things... yeah, millions here too.
  

Good post.

I never seriously considered AMZN before I bought shares at $1500.  I was around IPO day and it popped to $50 in a hurry as I recall.  No hope of a profit soon.  Bezos actually wore spurs, holster and six shooter to an early conference call and I didn't take him even a little serious.  I don't blame myself for that too much but by 2006 it was pretty clear they were dominant in retail.  I've never seen a company take so long to be profitable.  Revenue growth matters.

I definitely remember contemplating buying APPL at $7.50.  MSFT was winning then and it really looked like APPL was about to be irrelevant.

I would have taken my profit during GFC so it wouldn't have mattered anyway.

oy vey to both posts

i have some oy veys too...

that's why i'm very hesitant to sell certain stocks--almost better to let them go to zero

What my past history tells me is that buying winners is not my problem, holding onto them is.

Case in point, ISRG.  Intuitive Surgical is gaining considerable traction in hospitals as surgery becomes less about a given surgeon's manual dexterity and instead allows the surgeon to instead guide the procedure through robotics.  It's literally life-saving technology.  I knew all this, and bought it in March with my cash-out refinance money.  I sold it soon after, because I made the mistake of deciding my growth strategy would be triple-leveraged driven.  Had I held onto it, it's up 30% since March.

Now, I did realize a few months later that my growth strategy should be a mix of etfs and individual stocks, and bought it in the ROTH, and it's up 13% for me now, so hopefully I'm learning.

[fenders53]

(08-03-2021, 08:27 PM)mid range Wrote: I thought of different ways to divert my attention over the years. Some study and a decent amount of time devoted to all. 1) Precious metals. 2) Trading preferred stocks. 3) Volatility ETFs. 4) Shorting distressed equities right before the advent of Reddit's Wall Street Bets. They turned out to be the kinda Good, kinda Bad and the very Ugly. Now on to dividend growth stocks with options. Guess it needs to be both the right thing and the right time and don't get greedy.

Most of those activities can be profitable but there is sufficient volatility to bust an entire portfolio.  You have to keep it a small part until you truly understand the best methods.  Unfortunately that usually requires a full business cycle and getting your nose bloodied.  I got tired of bloody noses in my thirties.  The majority of my portfolio needs to be left alone.  I enjoy trading but confine that to a small portion if it can truly hurt me.  And I know what I am not good at.  I should swear off commodities but here I am.  I will never stop learning.  I just try to limit the size of my errors.

[fenders53]

(08-04-2021, 05:30 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(08-03-2021, 05:12 PM)rayray Wrote:

(08-03-2021, 04:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(08-03-2021, 03:52 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: My biggest monetary blunders are:

• getting divorced
  
• as an early investor, I thought you "buy low sell high" so I would find a bargain stock, set my sale price, and hold until it met that price.  Bought Apple at $20/share when they came out with the ipod, sold at $30... it would be worth millions today
  
• cashed out some company stock options too soon, again lost out on millions had I waited longer
  
• got bored owning this "online bookstore" called Amazon, and this electric car company called Tesla, and this movie company that mailed you dvds called Netflix, and sold them and moved on to other things... yeah, millions here too.
  

Good post.

I never seriously considered AMZN before I bought shares at $1500.  I was around IPO day and it popped to $50 in a hurry as I recall.  No hope of a profit soon.  Bezos actually wore spurs, holster and six shooter to an early conference call and I didn't take him even a little serious.  I don't blame myself for that too much but by 2006 it was pretty clear they were dominant in retail.  I've never seen a company take so long to be profitable.  Revenue growth matters.

I definitely remember contemplating buying APPL at $7.50.  MSFT was winning then and it really looked like APPL was about to be irrelevant.

I would have taken my profit during GFC so it wouldn't have mattered anyway.

oy vey to both posts

i have some oy veys too...

that's why i'm very hesitant to sell certain stocks--almost better to let them go to zero

What my past history tells me is that buying winners is not my problem, holding onto them is.

Case in point, ISRG.  Intuitive Surgical is gaining considerable traction in hospitals as surgery becomes less about a given surgeon's manual dexterity and instead allows the surgeon to instead guide the procedure through robotics.  It's literally life-saving technology.  I knew all this, and bought it in March with my cash-out refinance money.  I sold it soon after, because I made the mistake of deciding my growth strategy would be triple-leveraged driven.  Had I held onto it, it's up 30% since March.

Now, I did realize a few months later that my growth strategy should be a mix of etfs and individual stocks, and bought it in the ROTH, and it's up 13% for me now, so hopefully I'm learning.

Both of us share our strategies a lot here. I hope you take this positive.......

My head hurts when I watch you manage your port.  It's just too much for a person with a job.  So many positions that could go very bad quick in anything but a bull market.  A half dozen triple leveraged ETFs, ten high yielders subject to extreme volatility.  Flipping quality DGI stocks you've only held for a few months, that went down a few percent, and deeming them under-performers?   It leads to impulsive moves on a near weekly basis.  That's not investing.  You don't have to invest like I do, but a plan that changes every few months is not a plan at all.  It's the only way you will keep your composure when the market gets rough for a sustained period of time.  That day will come and it will be pure chaos for you.

You seem pretty good at finding solid companies worthy of holding for years.  IMO that should be the core of your plan.  They don't have to all be DGI stocks of course.  You can still have fun, but don't let it devastate your port.  You aren't playing with small money.

[ken-do-nim]

(08-04-2021, 06:48 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(08-04-2021, 05:30 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(08-03-2021, 05:12 PM)rayray Wrote:

(08-03-2021, 04:05 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(08-03-2021, 03:52 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: My biggest monetary blunders are:

• getting divorced
  
• as an early investor, I thought you "buy low sell high" so I would find a bargain stock, set my sale price, and hold until it met that price.  Bought Apple at $20/share when they came out with the ipod, sold at $30... it would be worth millions today
  
• cashed out some company stock options too soon, again lost out on millions had I waited longer
  
• got bored owning this "online bookstore" called Amazon, and this electric car company called Tesla, and this movie company that mailed you dvds called Netflix, and sold them and moved on to other things... yeah, millions here too.
  

Good post.

I never seriously considered AMZN before I bought shares at $1500.  I was around IPO day and it popped to $50 in a hurry as I recall.  No hope of a profit soon.  Bezos actually wore spurs, holster and six shooter to an early conference call and I didn't take him even a little serious.  I don't blame myself for that too much but by 2006 it was pretty clear they were dominant in retail.  I've never seen a company take so long to be profitable.  Revenue growth matters.

I definitely remember contemplating buying APPL at $7.50.  MSFT was winning then and it really looked like APPL was about to be irrelevant.

I would have taken my profit during GFC so it wouldn't have mattered anyway.

oy vey to both posts

i have some oy veys too...

that's why i'm very hesitant to sell certain stocks--almost better to let them go to zero

What my past history tells me is that buying winners is not my problem, holding onto them is.

Case in point, ISRG.  Intuitive Surgical is gaining considerable traction in hospitals as surgery becomes less about a given surgeon's manual dexterity and instead allows the surgeon to instead guide the procedure through robotics.  It's literally life-saving technology.  I knew all this, and bought it in March with my cash-out refinance money.  I sold it soon after, because I made the mistake of deciding my growth strategy would be triple-leveraged driven.  Had I held onto it, it's up 30% since March.

Now, I did realize a few months later that my growth strategy should be a mix of etfs and individual stocks, and bought it in the ROTH, and it's up 13% for me now, so hopefully I'm learning.

Both of us share our strategies a lot here. I hope you take this positive.......

My head hurts when I watch you manage your port.  It's just too much for a person with a job.  So many positions that could go very bad quick in anything but a bull market.  A half dozen triple leveraged ETFs, ten high yielders subject to extreme volatility.  Flipping quality DGI stocks you've only held for a few months, that went down a few percent, and deeming them under-performers?   It leads to impulsive moves on a near weekly basis.  That's not investing.  You don't have to invest like I do, but a plan that changes every few months is not a plan at all.  It's the only way you will keep your composure when the market gets rough for a sustained period of time.  That day will come and it will be pure chaos for you.

You seem pretty good at finding solid companies worthy of holding for years.  IMO that should be the core of your plan.  They don't have to all be DGI stocks of course.  You can still have fun, but don't let it devastate your port.  You aren't playing with small money.

Heh, no seriously there was an awful lot of finding my way this year, agreed.  But it's starting to coalesce now.