COP

[DividendGarden]

Conocophillips (COP) closed at $36.40.  As an upstream company (non-integrated), they are more exposed to oil price fluctuations.  I understand that this year may be painful for them, but how low of a price will this fall to?  It's been freefalling since November.  Thoughts?

[Rasec]

I'm almost 30% down on COP and I thought I bought quite low... My only worst position is KMI.

Instead of trying to catch a falling knife, I'll wait until oil starts catching up. Might take another year or 2 or so, specially now with Iran entering the party.

[DividendGarden]

(01-19-2016, 07:33 PM)Rasec Wrote: I'm almost 30% down on COP and I thought I bought quite low... My only worst position is KMI.

Instead of trying to catch a falling knife, I'll wait until oil starts catching up. Might take another year or 2 or so, specially now with Iran entering the party.

I hear you with KMI.  

I think in 5-10 years, we'll be remembering how cheap these companies were and kicking ourselves for not taking advantage.  I remember buying AXP at $10/share back in 2008.  The trouble is, I'm already overweight in energy/oil.  How much more should I buy?

[mikesdca]

(01-20-2016, 09:00 AM)DividendGarden Wrote:

(01-19-2016, 07:33 PM)Rasec Wrote: I'm almost 30% down on COP and I thought I bought quite low... My only worst position is KMI.

Instead of trying to catch a falling knife, I'll wait until oil starts catching up. Might take another year or 2 or so, specially now with Iran entering the party.

I hear you with KMI.  

I think in 5-10 years, we'll be remembering how cheap these companies were and kicking ourselves for not taking advantage.  I remember buying AXP at $10/share back in 2008.  The trouble is, I'm already overweight in energy/oil.  How much more should I buy?

"How much more should I buy?"  

Well, I think that is a personal question for everyone and it depends upon each person situation.  I am down like most (in the 30% range) and I am overweight oil also.  

COP has 15 years dividend increases and they just increased a couple of quarters ago, so they do not need to worry about providing another increase for another year or more to keep the coveted CCC streak alive.  Question is, do they cut?  Who knows, but that is the only thing I can see that will drag it down too much further.  Yields 8.5% right now so its tempting.  

I am tempted to add, but probably will not.  I am an investor who invests about $1500 per pay period and with the market as it is, I am going to stick to buying undervalued Champions.  HCP, ADM, EMR, BEN, APD, and others..ITW also coming in range.  In times like this I would stick to quality.  I think there will be time to still grab more oil after that knife stops falling and we have continued to build out our portfolios with something or a core stock.  

Just how I look at.

[ronn38]

Personally, I suspect COP has the greatest chance of cutting the div of major oil; M* has removed its moat rating, and it's no longer an integrated player, like CVX.
I own COP, BP, RDS, XOM and CVX--and save for 1/2 my position in CVX and all my XOE, I bought these at much higher valuations. I'm barely making 4% YOC for my COP. If it ever runs over $39 again, I think I'll sell, and use the proceeds to fill out my position in MMP or XOM. Certainly less upside potential in the share price of these choices, but if these prices stay depressed for 18 or more months, I think MMP or XOM will serve me better in terms of divy yield (DRIPPED at this point). Of course, if COP doesn't cut it's divy, I'll just be losing capitol...

Ronn

[KenBob]

I wouldn't put money into oil until there has been some major bankruptcies. The fracking companies are still pumping only to cover their debt payments. When they fail, capacity will be reduced and the price of oil will start to rise.