On March 10, 2000, the very day that the NASDAQ composite index hit its all-time high of 5048.62, Prudential Securities chief technical analyst Ralph Acampora said in USA Today that he expected NASDAQ to hit 6000 within 12 to 18 months. Five weeks later, NASDAQ had already shriveled to 3321.29
Thomas Galvin, a market strategist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, declared that “there’s only 200 or 300 points of downside for the NASDAQ and 2000 on the upside.” It turned out that there were no points on the upside and more than 2000 on the downside, as NASDAQ kept crashing until it finally scraped bottom on October 9, 2002, at 1114.11.
In March 2001, Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman, Sachs & Co., predicted that the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index would close the year at 1,650 and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would finish 2001 at 13,000. “We do not expect a recession,” said Cohen, “and believe that corporate profits are likely to grow at close to trend growth rates later this year.” The U.S. economy was sinking into recession even as she spoke, and the S & P 500 ended 2001 at 1148.08, while the Dow finished at 10,021.50—30% and 23% below her forecasts, respectively.
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"The farther one gets from Wall Street, the more skepticism one will find, we believe, as to the pretensions of stock-market forecasting or timing. The investor can scarcely take seriously the innumerable predictions which appear almost daily and are his for the asking. Yet in many cases he pays attention to them and even acts upon them. Why? Because he has been persuaded that it is important for him to form some opinion of the future course of the stock market, and because he feels that the brokerage or service forecast is at least more dependable than his own". - Benjamin Graham The intelligent Investor
While the interests of Wall Street’s businesses are well served by the aphorism “Don’t just stand there—do something!,” the interests of Main Street’s investors are well served by an approach that is its diametrical opposite: “Don’t do something—just stand there! - John Bogle
Just thoughts (others mileage may vary, and usually does)
- Scoot
Thomas Galvin, a market strategist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, declared that “there’s only 200 or 300 points of downside for the NASDAQ and 2000 on the upside.” It turned out that there were no points on the upside and more than 2000 on the downside, as NASDAQ kept crashing until it finally scraped bottom on October 9, 2002, at 1114.11.
In March 2001, Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman, Sachs & Co., predicted that the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index would close the year at 1,650 and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would finish 2001 at 13,000. “We do not expect a recession,” said Cohen, “and believe that corporate profits are likely to grow at close to trend growth rates later this year.” The U.S. economy was sinking into recession even as she spoke, and the S & P 500 ended 2001 at 1148.08, while the Dow finished at 10,021.50—30% and 23% below her forecasts, respectively.
>
"The farther one gets from Wall Street, the more skepticism one will find, we believe, as to the pretensions of stock-market forecasting or timing. The investor can scarcely take seriously the innumerable predictions which appear almost daily and are his for the asking. Yet in many cases he pays attention to them and even acts upon them. Why? Because he has been persuaded that it is important for him to form some opinion of the future course of the stock market, and because he feels that the brokerage or service forecast is at least more dependable than his own". - Benjamin Graham The intelligent Investor
While the interests of Wall Street’s businesses are well served by the aphorism “Don’t just stand there—do something!,” the interests of Main Street’s investors are well served by an approach that is its diametrical opposite: “Don’t do something—just stand there! - John Bogle
Just thoughts (others mileage may vary, and usually does)
- Scoot
- "The foresight of financial experts was, as so often, a poor guide to the future" — John Kenneth Galbraith
- "Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”— Warren Buffet
- "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Kenneth Galbraith
- "The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers."— Edgar Fielder
- Forecasters tend to learn less and less about more and more, until in the end they know nothing about everything.”— Edgar Fiedler
