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On Portfolio Construction
#1
Seth Klarman wrote in Margin of Safety…
Even relatively safe investments entail some probability, however small, of downside risk. The deleterious effects of such improbable events can best be mitigated through prudent diversification. The number of securities that should be owned to reduce portfolio risk to an acceptable level is not great; as few as ten to fifteen different holdings usually suffice. Diversification for its own sake is not sensible. This is the index fund mentality: if you can’t beat the market, be the market.-Seth Klarman

Marks also chimed in.....
Diversification is a helpful tool, but it should only be employed to the point where its costs equal its benefits. Adding positions beyond that point is watering down a portfolio – the benefits are minimal, but the costs detract from an investors ability to add value. A lot of investors tend to confuse Risk with Volatility (they are not the same) - Howard Marks

Marks goes further -
Is a relatively concentrated strategy really more risky for the investor? There’s no doubt that the concentrated portfolio will exhibit more volatility on average than a highly diversified one, but volatility isn’t a very useful descriptor of risk.If we think that risk is roughly equivalent to the probability of losing money on an investment, then perhaps we should ask, “are you more likely to lose money owning a concentrated portfolio or a highly diversified portfolio?” The common sense answer is that it depends on what’s in each portfolio!  - Howard Marks


IMHO there is no magic "number" of securities one should strive to hold during portfolio construction. It's better for the retail investor to concentrate on understanding the differences between Systemic and Unsystemic Risk , investing in Quality companies with strong balance sheets, and gain an understanding of how you can depend on your portfolio to react during each phase of a full economic business cycle (early, mid, late, recessionary). Once achieved the investor can then concentrate on increasing share count in said securities when the market hands you miss-priced opportunities.

 - Just Thoughts,
-Scoot

"Use an appropriate "margin of safety" to manage risk. This way, you will not lose too much when you are wrong, and you will make much more when you are right. This way you can let your portfolio generate higher than market returns with less risk, in a sustainable and stable way"- Li Lu
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#2
I agree with all of those principles. A few random thoughts of mine.

-For most of my investing career I was doing a combination of index investing and DGI investing, although I didn't know the DGI strategy actually had a name.

-When I joined this forum and others, I ran into what I considered a lot of "stock collectors". I fell into the trap for a time. IMO if you don't have time to properly research a stock prior to owning a substantial position, then you are asking for underperformance. Subsequently you need to give them a review at least annually. Patience is good but I don't believe in blind faith because a company used to be good is better than index investing. It's inferior IMO. Personally I can only watch 20 tickers and it's only because I enjoy this. Add some index to this and I believe it's the best I can do.

-Margin of safety has been tough to come by lately, but I try to remain invested enough. I am seemingly the forum bear because I will not buy much if any if it's overvalued IMO. Are the rules really different now? Is a 4.0 PEG now OK just because it's been working lately? The evidence says I'm wrong for now.

-I won't be writing any investing books but one of the basic rules that has served me well is this..... Never do today what you wish you had done last week, month, year etc. You have to know when to let it go. Maybe you get another chance later and if not don't obsess on a particular company you missed the chance to buy or sell.
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#3
(12-07-2021, 07:14 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I agree with all of those principles.  A few random thoughts of mine.    

-For most of my investing career I was doing a combination of index investing and DGI investing, although I didn't know the DGI strategy actually had a name.  

-When I joined this forum and others, I ran into what I considered a lot of "stock collectors".  I fell into the trap for a time.  IMO if you don't have time to properly research a stock prior to owning a substantial position, then you are asking for underperformance.  Subsequently you need to give them a review at least annually.  Patience is good but I don't believe in blind faith because a company used to be good is better than index investing.  It's inferior IMO.  Personally I can only watch 20 tickers and it's only because I enjoy this.  Add some index to this and I believe it's the best I can do.  

-Margin of safety has been tough to come by lately, but I try to  remain invested enough.  I am seemingly the forum bear because I will not buy much if any if it's overvalued IMO.  Are the rules really different now?  Is a 4.0 PEG now OK just because it's been working lately?  The evidence says I'm wrong for now.

-I won't be writing any investing books but one of the basic rules that has served me well is this.....  Never do today what you wish you had done last week, month, year etc.   You have to know when to let it go.  Maybe you get another chance later and if not don't obsess on a particular company you missed the chance to buy or sell.

My "rule" - I put this in quotes because every rule I've had has at one point in time or other turned into a guideline - was to only have enough companies where I could at least do in-depth investigation into it before buying, generally follow it on an ongoing basis, read through the quarterly ERs and call transcripts and read through the AR. With each 5 I added I asked myself if I still had time and had never said no.

The most companies I ever reached was, IIRC, 33 and I was OK going to 35. I have 30 now. I've seen people with a hundred and wondered how in the world they could track them.

One other thing I did going into retirement. I had a few stocks I called "onesies." My initial purchase of a stock is always $5k. I actually moved my retirement up a year this spring so I didn't have time to add onto some companies I initially bought in late 2020 or early this year. None of them were fantastic - to me anyway, otherwise I'd have bought more. But a couple were solid such as DUK and JNJ. They were all trading above my target price when I decided it was time to get serious about this.

So I sold them. I won't be adding money or reinvesting dividends in the taxable account so they were going to stay onesies forever. I decided the positions were small enough that once I retired I didn't want to mess with them. Just wasn't worth the time.

I believe this is the longest blog post I ever wrote on Seeking Alpha but if anyone is REALLY bored and wants to see my buying process for dividend-payers, it's here: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/48196...-companies
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