Buying when there is blood in the streets

[hendi_alex]

IMO timing is so very important and it is bull crap that experts says it is impossible to market time. An investor must advantage of opportunities when they arise. That is why keeping an allocation of opportunity cash is so important. Obviously this oil sell off is mostly a short term phenomenon with prices way over sold given market fundamentals. Everyone knows how fickle the market can be, and we could be looking at lower lows in the sector in coming months. But for today, wow things look so good for my 20% overweight in energy that was taken in the past week or two.

BTE +30%
COP +8%
ESV +8%
MRO +3%
OKE +5%
PSCE +11%
SDRL +15%

All for 1-2 week exposure so far. While the prices could move back to near lows, I'll be holding these until prices recoup to near 80% of previous highs and then I'll trim sector weighting back down to nearer 10%. COP is a covered call play which will likely get called at $67.50 to cap my gain at 8% plus any dividends. I bought quite a few other shares but as additions to existing holdings, so don't really know what the gains are on the incremental purchases, other than that they are substantial.

[EricL]

Well done Alex!

Time will tell if the bottom was truly in or if this is simply a bounce, but so far things are surely looking up.

Waiting funds to hit my account for one more purchase before the end of the year. Was hoping to add more to KMI or CVX, hopefully they don't run away from me before I get the chance.

[hendi_alex]

If new lows arise, from an indiscriminate general sell off, I'll move back into the accumulation phase, buying at -5% to -10% intervals on the way down. Probably won't buy many shares at the exact bottom, but will have a very nice cost averaged entry price for each holding. Some positions might not even make it, if crude stays under $60 for a string of many quarters, but the survivors will eventually make up for any failures. This is looking like a traditional Christmas rally, so am looking for buying to continue at least into the first of the year. I wouldn't be surprised to see renewed weakness in the energy patch as we move toward April/May however.