Dividend Growth Forum
What Did You Buy Today? - Printable Version

+- Dividend Growth Forum (http://DividendGrowthForum.com)
+-- Forum: Dividend Growth Investing (http://DividendGrowthForum.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=15)
+--- Forum: Dividend Growth Investing (http://DividendGrowthForum.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=33)
+--- Thread: What Did You Buy Today? (/showthread.php?tid=699)

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - Otter - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 02:04 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:27 PM)Otter Wrote: As I said, going with familiarity and gut feeling on this pick, and it is a small part of my overall portfolio, but I think this will join a few other MoMo stocks that went public this year.

I do like Airbnb for a quick trade, indeed I find it very likely that it will climb significantly from it's IPO price. That seems to be the norm for recent tech IPOs and the buzz around Airbnb should make it happen here too. Of course I could be completely wrong, but indeed I'm considering a quick trade.

But long-term? I just don't think Airbnb has any sort of a major moat or competitive advantage compared to other similar companies. It might be an ok company, but I'm going to quote our buddy fenders here and say "valuation does matter". Or something like that.  Big Grin

To a large extent their long-term success and development of a moat depends on the network effect. If Airbnb is the first thing the majority of people think of when selecting vacation rentals, that is a meaningful advantage unto itself. MySpace and Ask Jeeves learned that.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 02:04 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:27 PM)Otter Wrote: As I said, going with familiarity and gut feeling on this pick, and it is a small part of my overall portfolio, but I think this will join a few other MoMo stocks that went public this year.

I do like Airbnb for a quick trade, indeed I find it very likely that it will climb significantly from it's IPO price. That seems to be the norm for recent tech IPOs and the buzz around Airbnb should make it happen here too. Of course I could be completely wrong, but indeed I'm considering a quick trade.

But long-term? I just don't think Airbnb has any sort of a major moat or competitive advantage compared to other similar companies. It might be an ok company, but I'm going to quote our buddy fenders here and say "valuation does matter". Or something like that.  Big Grin
Thanks for the shout out.  Pretty sure I made up this stock valuation theory thing.  Otter is ignoring me because he is flush with DASH stock right now.  I just know he's gonna brag when it surpasses AMZN in CAP next week. Smile


What Did You Buy Today? - vbin - 12-09-2020

Airbnb is able to build a huge brand name so far. They are super customer friendly. Street like their ceo.

They are not as cheap and as authentic they were 2-3 years back and unless they figure out a way to be profitable, grow and solve this problem, they will face headwinds. Given the travel boom post covid and new gen appetite to be different and insta and pinterest world, they still have huge potential to grow.


DASH is a different story on the other hand.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 02:06 PM)Otter Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:34 PM)Otter Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:02 PM)kblake Wrote: Looks like the teach bubble is finally starting to pop lol

While all you guys were buying those high flyers like CRWD, TWLO and U

I hopped in on XON, LOW, T and those beaten down names. Its paying off at least for today lol

Added a few more BAX this morning

I am about to trim T if it keeps running.  It's been a good one this quarter.  Income and capital gain. 

I sold a put in BMY and DG.  Added a few more shares of XEL and started a position in SWKS for the growthy port.  Just one share.  Hoping tech gets hit some soon but not holding my breath.

DASH has launched.  Three hours old and over half the market CAP of MCD.  SBUX is the only other restaurant stock with a higher CAP.  Seems legit.  Smile

Not suggesting it's exactly the same market wide, but the gambling has now entered the zone of Tech bubble 2000.  People are going to get wrecked again. It's going to be just as brutal.

Absent a change in interest rates (unlikely), I don't know that this is true. Interest rates in 2000 were way higher.

As permabear Ray Dalio has pointed out, investments compete with each other for market share (bonds, equities, real estate, gold, etc.), and treasuries are presently trading around 75x earnings. Given that, a 50x P/E norm for stocks wouldn't be outside of historical ratios. You might not like it, it might not feel right, but it would fit the traditional relationship between stocks and treasuries. I'm old enough to remember when TINA was a thing, back during the post-2008 monetary expansion. The most hated bull market in history (until maybe this one). 

Also, how much of the recent run up in stock prices is tied to fundamentals vs. erosion in the value of the dollar. Just look at the charts for UUP and UDN. The Fed printing has had a noticeable impact on the value of the dollar vs. the basket of currencies it is typically priced against. Still kicking myself for closing out my UUP Puts purchased back in the March/April timeframe.
I refuse to rationalize the flagrant gambling.  I am not talking about the entire market, but the list of new pure gambling stocks is starting to get long.  The IPOs will accelerate until the market will take no more.  Why wouldn't you right now?  They will be crushed.  No I don't know the date of this event but it will happen.  A non-profit food delivery service worth more than anything else in the entire restaurant sector minus MCD and SBUX in three hours.  Worth way more than YUM, DRI, CBRL, Chipolte. Yeah, just no.

I’m totally onboard the Dash is trash train. I don’t find it investable, nor have I been interested in many of the other IPO listings this year.

Then again, I was also bearish on TSLA for a long period. They managed to shoot the insolvency gap successfully. Good for them. Still not a buyer of TSLA, though.
Hope I don't sound upset.  I'm glad you are back and debating me.  I miss that.  DASH may not be trash.  It just happens to be 10X it's value today.  This is the stuff that ends bull markets.  Fools get burned and the new mantra is the market is too dangerous for regular people, and the attitude lasts for years.  Politicians will feed it. 

I changed sides on you this time.  I gave you hell for shorting TSLA.  Your initial thesis wasn't really wrong.  TSLA in fact makes more revenue selling shares than cars.  TSLA while dangerous to invest in to me, is a different story.  We have ten years to study.  It's clear they can build a quality EV that people will buy.  They have a MOAT of sorts.  It would take years for F, GM and TOY to put them out of business if they even could.  TSLA valuation is beyond ridiculous, but it's a bad short because it could triple again.  When can we short DASH?  Smile  Kidding on a straight short, but a put buy might be tempting if it runs a few more days lol.  There is zero chance major chains pay DASH 30% for long.  They'll make other arrangements soon, or squeeze all the delivery services when the pandemic slows.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - Otter - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 01:31 PM)vbin Wrote: Mind boggling who buys at these valuations? Look at c3.ai today. I would have closed my eyes and threw some money at $50 but it opens at $100. Absurd.

Good grief, and to think I was struggling with the decision to buy a small amount of STWD just under $17.50 a few weeks back. Did the Robinhood gang see "AI" in the name and assume it was a tech company?


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - Otter - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 02:43 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 02:06 PM)Otter Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:34 PM)Otter Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I am about to trim T if it keeps running.  It's been a good one this quarter.  Income and capital gain. 

I sold a put in BMY and DG.  Added a few more shares of XEL and started a position in SWKS for the growthy port.  Just one share.  Hoping tech gets hit some soon but not holding my breath.

DASH has launched.  Three hours old and over half the market CAP of MCD.  SBUX is the only other restaurant stock with a higher CAP.  Seems legit.  Smile

Not suggesting it's exactly the same market wide, but the gambling has now entered the zone of Tech bubble 2000.  People are going to get wrecked again. It's going to be just as brutal.

Absent a change in interest rates (unlikely), I don't know that this is true. Interest rates in 2000 were way higher.

As permabear Ray Dalio has pointed out, investments compete with each other for market share (bonds, equities, real estate, gold, etc.), and treasuries are presently trading around 75x earnings. Given that, a 50x P/E norm for stocks wouldn't be outside of historical ratios. You might not like it, it might not feel right, but it would fit the traditional relationship between stocks and treasuries. I'm old enough to remember when TINA was a thing, back during the post-2008 monetary expansion. The most hated bull market in history (until maybe this one). 

Also, how much of the recent run up in stock prices is tied to fundamentals vs. erosion in the value of the dollar. Just look at the charts for UUP and UDN. The Fed printing has had a noticeable impact on the value of the dollar vs. the basket of currencies it is typically priced against. Still kicking myself for closing out my UUP Puts purchased back in the March/April timeframe.
I refuse to rationalize the flagrant gambling.  I am not talking about the entire market, but the list of new pure gambling stocks is starting to get long.  The IPOs will accelerate until the market will take no more.  Why wouldn't you right now?  They will be crushed.  No I don't know the date of this event but it will happen.  A non-profit food delivery service worth more than anything else in the entire restaurant sector minus MCD and SBUX in three hours.  Worth way more than YUM, DRI, CBRL, Chipolte. Yeah, just no.

I’m totally onboard the Dash is trash train. I don’t find it investable, nor have I been interested in many of the other IPO listings this year.

Then again, I was also bearish on TSLA for a long period. They managed to shoot the insolvency gap successfully. Good for them. Still not a buyer of TSLA, though.
Hope I don't sound upset.  I'm glad you are back and debating me.  I miss that.  DASH may not be trash.  It just happens to be 10X it's value today.  This is the stuff that ends bull markets.  Fools get burned and the new mantra is the market is too dangerous for regular people, and the attitude lasts for years.  Politicians will feed it. 

I changed sides on you this time.  I gave you hell for shorting TSLA.  Your initial thesis wasn't really wrong.  TSLA in fact makes more revenue selling shares than cars.  TSLA while dangerous to invest in to me, is a different story.  We have ten years to study.  It's clear they can build a quality EV that people will buy.  They have a MOAT of sorts.  It would take years for F, GM and TOY to put them out of business if they even could.  TSLA valuation is beyond ridiculous, but it's a bad short because it could triple again.  When can we short DASH?  Smile  Kidding on a straight short, but a put buy might be tempting if it runs a few more days lol.  There is zero chance major chains pay DASH 30% for long.  They'll make other arrangements soon, or squeeze all the delivery services when the pandemic slows.

I got super lucky on TSLA and cashed out my puts for a small profit thanks to the Feb/Mar market meltdown. Those puts were down 80% at one point. Never touching that stock again. 

I see zero durable advantage for DASH. There is going to be huge pent-up demand for sit-down dining after this pandemic mess is over, and that will hurt them. You are correct that their current pricing scheme is unsustainable. No moat at all. When the area I used to live in featured easy access to Uber Eats, DoorDash, Postmates, etc., I never felt any loyalty to any particular delivery app. Whichever one partnered with the restaurant I wanted, or had recently sent me a promo code, was the one I used. About as appealing to me as GRPN (which is to say, not at all).


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - Otter - 12-09-2020

Someone following this thread could really get the wrong idea about this forum. MoMo stocks are way more fun to discuss and trash talk than typical DGI stocks, because they break all the rules and do stupid, unpredictable things. Meanwhile, the majority of DGI stocks with solid balance sheets mostly plod along and grow their earnings in a predictable and calm way. Sometimes you get fortunate and find a few that are undervalued, which could mean a 20-30% pop over a year for a stellar pick, while TrashFraud.com quadruples.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 02:58 PM)Otter Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 02:43 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 02:06 PM)Otter Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(12-09-2020, 01:34 PM)Otter Wrote: Absent a change in interest rates (unlikely), I don't know that this is true. Interest rates in 2000 were way higher.

As permabear Ray Dalio has pointed out, investments compete with each other for market share (bonds, equities, real estate, gold, etc.), and treasuries are presently trading around 75x earnings. Given that, a 50x P/E norm for stocks wouldn't be outside of historical ratios. You might not like it, it might not feel right, but it would fit the traditional relationship between stocks and treasuries. I'm old enough to remember when TINA was a thing, back during the post-2008 monetary expansion. The most hated bull market in history (until maybe this one). 

Also, how much of the recent run up in stock prices is tied to fundamentals vs. erosion in the value of the dollar. Just look at the charts for UUP and UDN. The Fed printing has had a noticeable impact on the value of the dollar vs. the basket of currencies it is typically priced against. Still kicking myself for closing out my UUP Puts purchased back in the March/April timeframe.
I refuse to rationalize the flagrant gambling.  I am not talking about the entire market, but the list of new pure gambling stocks is starting to get long.  The IPOs will accelerate until the market will take no more.  Why wouldn't you right now?  They will be crushed.  No I don't know the date of this event but it will happen.  A non-profit food delivery service worth more than anything else in the entire restaurant sector minus MCD and SBUX in three hours.  Worth way more than YUM, DRI, CBRL, Chipolte. Yeah, just no.

I’m totally onboard the Dash is trash train. I don’t find it investable, nor have I been interested in many of the other IPO listings this year.

Then again, I was also bearish on TSLA for a long period. They managed to shoot the insolvency gap successfully. Good for them. Still not a buyer of TSLA, though.
Hope I don't sound upset.  I'm glad you are back and debating me.  I miss that.  DASH may not be trash.  It just happens to be 10X it's value today.  This is the stuff that ends bull markets.  Fools get burned and the new mantra is the market is too dangerous for regular people, and the attitude lasts for years.  Politicians will feed it. 

I changed sides on you this time.  I gave you hell for shorting TSLA.  Your initial thesis wasn't really wrong.  TSLA in fact makes more revenue selling shares than cars.  TSLA while dangerous to invest in to me, is a different story.  We have ten years to study.  It's clear they can build a quality EV that people will buy.  They have a MOAT of sorts.  It would take years for F, GM and TOY to put them out of business if they even could.  TSLA valuation is beyond ridiculous, but it's a bad short because it could triple again.  When can we short DASH?  Smile  Kidding on a straight short, but a put buy might be tempting if it runs a few more days lol.  There is zero chance major chains pay DASH 30% for long.  They'll make other arrangements soon, or squeeze all the delivery services when the pandemic slows.

I got super lucky on TSLA and cashed out my puts for a small profit thanks to the Feb/Mar market meltdown. Those puts were down 80% at one point. Never touching that stock again. 

I see zero durable advantage for DASH. There is going to be huge pent-up demand for sit-down dining after this pandemic mess is over, and that will hurt them. You are correct that their current pricing scheme is unsustainable. No moat at all. When the area I used to live in featured easy access to Uber Eats, DoorDash, Postmates, etc., I never felt any loyalty to any particular delivery app. Whichever one partnered with the restaurant I wanted, or had recently sent me a promo code, was the one I used. About as appealing to me as GRPN (which is to say, not at all).
I have read a few trade articles.  Restaurant owners are angry.  They are trying to pay the rent, not fire their best staff and stay somewhat solvent.  They feel like all their profit is being price gouged away.  I'm guessing they are feeling the desire to get even when the opportunity presents itself, and it will.  At some point people pay to have small orders of food delivered, or you drive your lazy self to the restaurant like you are supposed to in normal times. Only pizza is supposed to be delivered when you are too drunk to drive.  And you tip the driver wearing out his car lol.  Smile


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 12-09-2020

DOOR spiked about 5% VERY briefly early this morning. Not Door Dash, but the boring company that manufacturers Masonite Doors I sell at work. This is how you lose your money lol. Smile


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - vbin - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 05:00 PM)fenders53 Wrote: DOOR spiked about 5% VERY briefly early this morning. Not Door Dash, but the boring company that manufacturers Masonite Doors I sell at work. This is how you lose your money lol. Smile
Rotfl.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 12-10-2020

It looks like Airbnb is priced at about $47B or $68/SH. IIRC the estimated valuation was about 20B in the spring when they delayed the IPO. Good move on their part as the market is in the IPO mood now. I am going to place a limit order I doubt will be filled today. I'll be surprised if there is any chance of getting shares under $100. As Otter stated a few days ago 2022 comps are going to be wonderful lol, but they surely have a couple more bad quarters ahead. I think there may be a chance to get some shares reasonable over the winter. IMO you have to be willing to overpay for a good IPO. My limit may be lower than others though.


RE: What Did You Buy Today? - divmenow - 12-10-2020

$152 a share for ABNB. No one is going to buy it. And if you are at that price you need your head examined lol.See you at $100 in 3 weeks