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+--- Thread: TUP (/showthread.php?tid=676)
TUP - Concasto - 09-30-2014
What are the board's thoughts on TUP? I just recently made a purchase in the $70 range and would love to buy more if is keeps making new lows.
Here are some stats:
P/E - 15
Div Yield - 3.7%
Payout ratio - 56%
5yr DGR - 23%
P/FCF (FY 2013) - 14.61
Current Ratio - 1.05
Enterprise Value/EBITDA - 9.43
The company is expecting double digit EPS growth rate as part of their "longer term outlook" as they have plenty of room to grow in the emerging markets, where they very active.
They had paid an $.88 dividend for a long time, but since 2008, they have been increasing it steadily and in 2013 they announced a 50% payout target on trailing EPS ex. items.
This seems like a solid growing company in a safe consumer stables sector and being a puny $3.5 billion dollar company, I could easily see this get scooped up someone foreign(since a large share of their business is overseas) or domestically, in order to capture their growth and large consumer base.
See their latest presentation below.
Sept Corporate Presentation
Please let me know your thoughts.
RE: TUP - Dividend Watcher - 09-30-2014
I've been looking into them now and again for the last few months, Eric mentioned over in the portfolio section that he recently put it in his portfolio and now you. I like the numbers for the most part and the yield sure looks yummy.
One that concerns me is the debt/equity over 300%. CLX and KMB both have operated for a long time with high debt/equity but they're also much larger corporations with products people use frequently and have to buy repeatedly. I'm still using Tupperware my mother bought over 40 years ago. I have to admit, they have a pricy product but the quality is great. Of course, they also have their other brands, the only one which I'm familiar with is BeautiControl. Don't know about repeated purchases in these other brands.
The 50% payout ratio target seems to be already met according to Finviz (53%). Yahoo has a 56% payout ratio. So what does this augur for the dividend growth rate? Both estimate a 12% EPS growth rate going forward. S&P is estimating a high single digit EPS growth for the next couple years.
Just thinking out loud here but I'm wondering if we're missing anything material.
RE: TUP - rapidacid - 09-30-2014
I like TUP quite a bit. Out of my portfolio of 66 equities my screening quant ranks it #13.
I like the 20% ROIC, 3.9% dividend, 26.8% 5 year chowder, and a current P/E of 15.0 vs 11.6 for forward P/E.
However they have a ton of dept ( 3.2 debt / equity ) and an interest coverage of only 8.2. Rising rates could hurt, tho I don't have a snapshot of their long term debt structure in front of me.
It occupies a full position in my portfolio.
RE: TUP - Concasto - 09-30-2014
Valid points above.
I am not a huge fan of debt to equity. To me, its all about cash flow and with the free cash flow TUP is currently generating, paying off debt should not be a problem. FY 2013 had FCF of $255 million and net debt of about $800 million.
RE: TUP - ChadR - 09-30-2014
TUP has been high on my watch list the past few months, but has never made the buy list. Like the others have stated, the only thing that bothers me about the company is their amount of debt. I believe that TUP will eventually become a purchase for me. Not sure it will be this month as I do have a couple that I like a little better than it.
RE: TUP - rapidacid - 04-23-2015
Reading through the ECT I'm not sure what to make of the future of TUP's dividend ... they've paid $0.68 / share for 5 quarters in a row and it's just about declaration time again
Their CFO states they target for 50% TTM payout ratio and I've got them at 63.5% now ... they repeatedly say they don't want to reduce the dividend, but it sure doesn't look like they're going to increase it any time soon ... luckily their EPS EST for next year is about 24% higher than TTM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3092146-tupperware-brands-tup-ceo-rick-goings-on-q1-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=8&p=qanda&l=last
RE: TUP - EricL - 04-23-2015
(04-23-2015, 11:16 AM)rapidacid Wrote: Reading through the ECT I'm not sure what to make of the future of TUP's dividend ... they've paid $0.68 / share for 5 quarters in a row and it's just about declaration time again
Their CFO states they target for 50% TTM payout ratio and I've got them at 63.5% now ... they repeatedly say they don't want to reduce the dividend, but it sure doesn't look like they're going to increase it any time soon ... luckily their EPS EST for next year is about 24% higher than TTM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3092146-tupperware-brands-tup-ceo-rick-goings-on-q1-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=8&p=qanda&l=last
I own TUP and agree with your thoughts. I don't think the dividend is in danger of being cut, but expect it to be frozen until the payout ratio gets back down to desired levels. If currency headwinds shift, things could improve rather quickly. If not, we may see $0.68 for several more quarters.