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+--- Thread: Super Bowl Halo Effect - A Statistical Oddity. (/showthread.php?tid=2137)
Super Bowl Halo Effect - A Statistical Oddity. - Scooterd - 01-02-2022
Many investors believe the outcome of the Super Bowl, the final game of the U.S. NFL football season, and how stock prices behave for the rest of the year are connected. Interestingly, this relationship does hold up under statistical scrutiny.
The so-called "Super Bowl Halo Effect" is a statistical oddity. There is no logical reason for any sort of relationship between the Super Bowl's outcome and stock prices.
The relationship is what statisticians refer to as a "false positive," or the appearance of a relationship between two variables purely as a result of chance.
Historically, the Dow Jones industrial average is more likely to decline over the course of the full year after which the AFC team wins the championship.
When the NFC team is crowned, the Dow is more likely to finish the year higher. This basic rule has held up 80 percent of the time thus far.
All the more reason to be a Packers Fan headin towards playoffs
- Scoot
RE: Super Bowl Halo Effect - A Statistical Oddity. - ken-do-nim - 01-03-2022
Weird.
I'm mostly a baseball fan, so I sometimes look forward to the Super Bowl because it means baseball is that much closer to taking central stage...
RE: Super Bowl Halo Effect - A Statistical Oddity. - Dario33 - 01-04-2022
As DGI investors looking for sales and dips, I'll be rooting for the Pats.
RE: Super Bowl Halo Effect - A Statistical Oddity. - fenders53 - 01-04-2022
(01-04-2022, 06:35 PM)Dario33 Wrote: As DGI investors looking for sales and dips, I'll be rooting for the Pats.LOL
There was a long run where the SB was pretty accurate at picking presidential election party wins too. I think that might have ended.