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+--- Thread: If I am wrong tell me.. (/showthread.php?tid=2124)
If I am wrong tell me.. - Scooterd - 12-28-2021
Got into a discussion with a member on another board. The individual seemed to be disparaging another investor(s) on that board and ended his comment with -
"they seem to be happy not making any money with stocks like T as long as they get a dividend"
To which I responded -
I think it depends on where you are in your investment "career".I have a family member who worked tel-co field for years is and is now 79.. She worked for Southwestern Bell Corp which became SBC communications which swallowed up Southern NE Telephone and eventually acquired AT&T. Obviously she is no longer in any accumulation Phase, and Mostly out of the market now. She transitioned to an annuity a number of years ago, However during her working career she accumulated over 12,000 ++ shares of AT&T. I asked her if she was going to sell her shares, and she said why? For her- in her later years; she has been perfectly content just leaving the shares alone, drawing her company pension, SS, and AT&T divi's. Not everything is Black and white. - Scoot
To which I received the following retort -
What worked in yester year may not work in the future. Actually will most likely not work as well.Hey I knew a guy who back in 1972 who ..... and ....Yet another guy in 2002 who ...And the that other dude in 2012 who ....If you think T is the answer load up. And I sincerely wish anyone the best if that is their decision. My Dad is 91. His portfolio is not set up for someone in their 90's. It is set up for appreciation and step up of the cost basis upon his passing.
So I'm Thinking to myself, While true no one knows the future - Why would someone who is 91 still be investing in Growth Stocks?
If a recession happens at 91 years of age, the individual investor would not have time (Literally) to possibly recover their losses.
Which brings me to the bigger question??.
At what point should an individual investor think about exiting the market? and if not entirely exiting , should age not be an important determinate factor as to when an investor should begin to move into more capital preservation lower risk type securities not only for themselves but for their potential heirs?.
I myself have my exit plan already determined for a certain point in the future.
- Scoot
RE: If I am wrong tell me.. - ken-do-nim - 12-28-2021
I do believe everyone's situation is different. Retiring on AT&T dividends probably looked great a while back; now that their raises have been 1 cent for a while and the company is splitting into two and reducing the dividend - not so much.
If I have 3 million when I retire and plan to live 100% off the dividends, then there probably isn't room for growth stocks, except maybe a few 3% payers. If I have 6 million, then I can afford some growth in there. Someone with 20 million can keep non-div payers around because it may not affect their lifestyle.
The only thing I know for sure is that when I get close to retirement, I won't be in triple-leveraged funds anymore
Chances are, BroadCom is with me for the long haul. Apple & Microsoft are the big question marks.
RE: If I am wrong tell me.. - cemanuel - 12-28-2021
(12-28-2021, 09:25 AM)Scooterd Wrote: Got into a discussion with a member on another board. The individual seemed to be disparaging another investor(s) on that board and ended his comment with -
"they seem to be happy not making any money with stocks like T as long as they get a dividend"
To which I responded -
I think it depends on where you are in your investment "career".I have a family member who worked tel-co field for years is and is now 79.. She worked for Southwestern Bell Corp which became SBC communications which swallowed up Southern NE Telephone and eventually acquired AT&T. Obviously she is no longer in any accumulation Phase, and Mostly out of the market now. She transitioned to an annuity a number of years ago, However during her working career she accumulated over 12,000 ++ shares of AT&T. I asked her if she was going to sell her shares, and she said why? For her- in her later years; she has been perfectly content just leaving the shares alone, drawing her company pension, SS, and AT&T divi's. Not everything is Black and white. - Scoot
To which I received the following retort -
What worked in yester year may not work in the future. Actually will most likely not work as well.Hey I knew a guy who back in 1972 who ..... and ....Yet another guy in 2002 who ...And the that other dude in 2012 who ....If you think T is the answer load up. And I sincerely wish anyone the best if that is their decision. My Dad is 91. His portfolio is not set up for someone in their 90's. It is set up for appreciation and step up of the cost basis upon his passing.
So I'm Thinking to myself, While true no one knows the future - Why would someone who is 91 still be investing in Growth Stocks?
If a recession happens at 91 years of age, the individual investor would not have time (Literally) to possibly recover their losses.
Which brings me to the bigger question??.
At what point should an individual investor think about exiting the market? and if not entirely exiting , should age not be an important determinate factor as to when an investor should begin to move into more capital preservation lower risk type securities not only for themselves but for their potential heirs?.
I myself have my exit plan already determined for a certain point in the future.
- Scoot
To me the final question really comes down to Estate Planning. Most of what I do won't be about capital preservation but about making it simple for whoever outlives me. For example, property is a pain to deal with. Now I have a realtor picked out to use who I know and trust in case I get hit by a truck but I intend to set it up so the properties are a piece of the planned giving of the estate. I haven't decided if personal property should go as part of the estate or not - leaning against it in case there's something someone wants but another thing we'll talk over.
I should never need to touch the *IRA or Roth. But those are easily transferred so other than naming beneficiaries (done but may change things this summer) I won't need to mess with them much. I will be using the taxable account but it should be sustainable - heck, most years the balance should still grow. I will be talking to tax/estate planning folks about which is the best account to pay estate expenses out of. Or it may be that the EF will cover it.
As for what someone should invest in at what age, I don't have a "should" on that. Same for growth vs something else. It's his or her money. If a person has all their faculties and wants to remain an active investor, well, if the body gets to where they can't get around like they used to, it may be a good way to keep their mind active.
*Except for when the government makes me.
RE: If I am wrong tell me.. - fenders53 - 12-28-2021
Well a couple thoughts come to mind.......
Investing allocation is a very personalized thing. Our ages of course and how much do we need in nearly guaranteed monthly income. our risk tolerance as well. What is our end of life goal? i.e. does it matter if we spend all of our wealth.
I want to live comfortably in retirement, but it's a high priority that I leave some assets to my daughter. She is just not likely to be as successful as I am at this wealth accumulation game, but she is working hard and trying to improve her finances. She is a good daughter.
I will keep a few growth stocks n my port until the end, but the reality is just holding so index ETFs get me there.
Try not to get your feelings hurt on discussion about stocks like T. A lot of us here think it's a yield trap and we like honest exchange of opinions here. If it turns out we are wrong, that is fine. I know I want everyone here to be successful, no matter what strategies they use.
RE: If I am wrong tell me.. - Scooterd - 12-28-2021
(12-28-2021, 10:56 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Try not to get your feelings hurt on discussion about stocks like T. A lot of us here think it's a yield trap and we like honest exchange of opinions here. If it turns out we are wrong, that is fine. I know I want everyone here to be successful, no matter what strategies they use.
>
Have no feelings hurt, I have Zero skin in the game as they are not my 12000 shares. Additionally after so many years of her investing and reinvesting divis one could logically assume her cost basis is zero or close to it. I merely shared a story in rebuttable for his abrasiveness of another.
I was more shocked how abrasive this as10xx individual was to disparage another investor(s) on that board regarding their strategy, while touting their own for appreciation strategy "as the one and only" not understanding neither strategy protects from an unknown and no one can predict the future and everything is situational.
And then once you move beyond the comment , The interaction raised interesting questions (for me) regarding preservation, Risk, and age
RE: If I am wrong tell me.. - fenders53 - 12-28-2021
(12-28-2021, 11:04 AM)Scooterd Wrote:I'm sure you've been on forums and watched people type volumes because somebody insulted their favorite stock. BABA threads on S.A. are painful. We've had a few discussions here about T and MO that got a little spirited.(12-28-2021, 10:56 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Try not to get your feelings hurt on discussion about stocks like T. A lot of us here think it's a yield trap and we like honest exchange of opinions here. If it turns out we are wrong, that is fine. I know I want everyone here to be successful, no matter what strategies they use.
I have no feeling involved. They are not my 12,000 + shares.
I was more angry an individual would disparage another individual regarding their strategy, while touting their own.
And then once you move beyond that , it raises interesting questions regarding preservation
RE: If I am wrong tell me.. - Forticus - 12-29-2021
(12-28-2021, 09:25 AM)Scooterd Wrote: ... My Dad is 91. His portfolio is not set up for someone in their 90's. It is set up for appreciation and step up of the cost basis upon his passing.
Not sure if I translate and interprete this correctly. Your dad's income is covered by the dividends _plus(?) _ he/you follow a generation overarching investment plan, instead of a pension plan, that eats away his ginger bread house towards the time of his passing?
If not so, your line at least sparked/backed a smoldering idea for our "family office". Thanks.
RE: If I am wrong tell me.. - Scooterd - 12-29-2021
(12-28-2021, 10:26 AM)cemanuel Wrote: I should never need to touch the *IRA or Roth. But those are easily transferred so other than naming beneficiaries (done but may change things this summer)
If one inherits an IRA, there are considerations for the recipient(s), including spend-down, Taxes, etc -
It's important to have those discussions with each beneficiary.
1. Recipient Rolls over assets into an IRA in their name
2. Recipient Rolls over the assets into an Inherited IRA account
3. Take the assets out for spending
4. Convert the assets to a Roth IRA
The beneficiary's age upon receipt of those assets also plays a role.