(02-02-2022, 09:03 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-02-2022, 08:16 PM)Kerim Wrote: I think it is a grotesque over-reaction. Enough so that I just made my first after-hours purchase ever to increase my FB holdings considerably. Anyone who is selling because FB *only* increased EPS by 36 percent in 2021 is out of their mind. Slowing growth matters a lot with a stratospheric P/E, which this cash generating juggernaut does not suffer from.

Not making any predictions about time frame -- my holding period is generally measured in decades. (But the way things have been moving lately, it would not surprise me a bit if it was back closer to $300 by the open tomorrow, as people come to their senses. (Or maybe it will be under $200 -- who the hell knows anymore. But I'll be sleeping fine tonight.))

I think it will be awhile before it sees $300 again, but in the end it's very undervalued at $250.  It will be fine whenever tech is fine again.  What I want to know is who starts dumping shares in VERY profitable companies at 20% off, one minute after the press release?  My hunch is an institution throws up 10K shares at a ridiculously low ASK and starts the panic.  We know what they do after that.  Same thing happened to NFLX.  They aren't going broke either, but had a much higher valuation than FB.

(02-03-2022, 06:40 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I use it about 10 minutes per day. Boomer stuff like check a few interest groups, wish a few happy birthdays, sometimes check the newsfeed.  FB messenger is the easiest way to drop a non-urgent message to about a dozen people in my life.  I only know a few dozen people that are addicted to FB and post many times a day.  Used to be more.  My kid uses Instagram.  

My question back to you is where do the growing billions of free cashflow come from?  Why would advertisers pay so much to advertise on unused sites?

(02-03-2022, 08:13 AM)cemanuel Wrote: Thoughts re FB since it's a hot topic. These are macro - nothing to do with earnings, cash flows, much of anything.

When I switched over to DGI I kept two growth stocks, FB and GOOGL. My thoughts were similar for each - big cap gains hit if I sold AND I thought there was a good chance they'd start paying a dividend at some point. In spring, 2019 I went ahead and sold FB (and my $180 looks a lot better now than 24 hours ago!).

I sold it for two reasons, somewhat related. I came to believe that FB was not likely to start paying a dividend at any point in the foreseeable future. I believed - and still believe - that it's the mega-tech company most at regulatory risk. Is it a monopoly? Sure - but so are GOOGL and AMZN. But FB is everyone's favorite whipping boy. Both political parties can find reasons to hate it. Now maybe I'm wrong on this and I'm certainly not saying it WILL happen - just that if it does, FB will likely be the first company to get hit with it, whatever "it" may be.

I do have it on my watchlist for my IRA and could buy but I'm still adding symbols and right now have 180 stocks to get down to 20-30 so that's very far from certain.

Final thought - PYPL is the kind of stock where I saw a 20% drop and shrugged my shoulders. I thought FB was past that - would have figured on 6-8% down for a rough reporting quarter. Of course it's AH but still didn't see it for a mega-cap company though I have not yet read through the ER.

(02-03-2022, 08:13 AM)cemanuel Wrote: Thoughts re FB since it's a hot topic. These are macro - nothing to do with earnings, cash flows, much of anything.

When I switched over to DGI I kept two growth stocks, FB and GOOGL. My thoughts were similar for each - big cap gains hit if I sold AND I thought there was a good chance they'd start paying a dividend at some point. In spring, 2019 I went ahead and sold FB (and my $180 looks a lot better now than 24 hours ago!).

I sold it for two reasons, somewhat related. I came to believe that FB was not likely to start paying a dividend at any point in the foreseeable future. I believed - and still believe - that it's the mega-tech company most at regulatory risk. Is it a monopoly? Sure - but so are GOOGL and AMZN. But FB is everyone's favorite whipping boy. Both political parties can find reasons to hate it. Now maybe I'm wrong on this and I'm certainly not saying it WILL happen - just that if it does, FB will likely be the first company to get hit with it, whatever "it" may be.

I do have it on my watchlist for my IRA and could buy but I'm still adding symbols and right now have 180 stocks to get down to 20-30 so that's very far from certain.

Final thought - PYPL is the kind of stock where I saw a 20% drop and shrugged my shoulders. I thought FB was past that - would have figured on 6-8% down for a rough reporting quarter. Of course it's AH but still didn't see it for a mega-cap company though I have not yet read through the ER.

(02-03-2022, 08:03 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:

(02-03-2022, 06:40 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I use it about 10 minutes per day. Boomer stuff like check a few interest groups, wish a few happy birthdays, sometimes check the newsfeed.  FB messenger is the easiest way to drop a non-urgent message to about a dozen people in my life.  I only know a few dozen people that are addicted to FB and post many times a day.  Used to be more.  My kid uses Instagram.  

My question back to you is where do the growing billions of free cashflow come from?  Why would advertisers pay so much to advertise on unused sites?

Instagram is certainly a success story. No doubt about it. Most of the youth these days seems to be using it on a daily basis. Whatsapp has been a success too, and I am also sure they are dying to figure out a way to push ads into whatsapp without everyone switching over to an alternative platform. But the issue remains, they have not been able to develop a single popular app, platform, or anything since.. well since they started Facebook. All the good stuff has been MA, and that road is dead.

I have to say that I am as puzzled as you are about the increase in ad revenue.
From their report: 
"For the full year 2021, ad impressions increased by 10% year-over-year and the average price per ad increased by 24% year-over-year."

Now 10% more ads I understand. But 24% increase in price per ad? I truly don't know. Maybe companies just have way too much money to spend on advertising.

(02-03-2022, 06:40 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I use it about 10 minutes per day. Boomer stuff like check a few interest groups, wish a few happy birthdays, sometimes check the newsfeed.  FB messenger is the easiest way to drop a non-urgent message to about a dozen people in my life.  I only know a few dozen people that are addicted to FB and post many times a day.  Used to be more.  My kid uses Instagram.  

My question back to you is where do the growing billions of free cashflow come from?  Why would advertisers pay so much to advertise on unused sites?