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+--- Thread: Letting the dust settle... (/showthread.php?tid=180)
Letting the dust settle... - Ok Red - 08-29-2013
... and here is what I ended up with. 15 stocks. It's about 10% of my portfolio. I'll average in over time.
Ticker-yld-1yr DG-3yr DG-5yr DG
afl - 2.34 - 8.9 - 6.2 - 10.9
aapl - 2.43 - ??? - ??? - ???
arg - 1.90 - 28 - 28.2 - 32.6
cmi - 1.98 - 35.8 - 37.0 - 33.2
chd - 1.87 - 41.2 - 61.0 - 45
coh - 2.56 - 27.2 - 49.0 - ???
gww - 1.49 - 21.4 - 19.8 - 18
intc - 4.04 - 11.2 - 15.8 - 14.1
sjm - 2.16 - 8.3 - 12.8 - 11.3
mcd - 3.23 - 13.4 - 11.9 - 13.9
pm - 4.04 - 14.9 - 13.1 - 28.2
ste - 2.02 - 12.5 - 20.6 - 26.8
tgt - 2.68 - 20.0 - 27.2 - 20.6
unp - 1.99 - 29.0 - 32.1 - 27.3
wag - 2.59 - 26.7 - 26.0 - 23.7
Totals - 2.488 - 21 - 26 - 24
A few notes:
Some basic rules for screening: They all came from the Dividend CCC list. One stock per industry. No ADRs. No Reits. 5 year DGR > 10%. Good fundamentals (but don't have to be perfect). EPS, sales and Cash flow growth sufficient to fund the dividend. No financials (that industry is SO not fixed yet).
Yup, I paid a premium for high dividend growth rates in terms of current yield. I'm totally ok with that, since I don't need the yield right now. The key is to have the higher yield in 10 years (or so).
I took a couple of 'educated' flyers on stocks that I think will have probably solid 5 year DGRs - Apple and Coach. We shall see
.Do I have termination criteria yet? Nope. My initial entry criteria was > 10% 5 year DGR (and solid fundamentals), so I'm thinking 5 year DGR < 10%, but I'm open to suggestions. AFLAC is already on the 'watch list'.
There are a few glaring holes in the port. First, no utilities. I work in the utility industry. Trust me, there is a reason for their absence. Second, no oil stock. That's because I couldn't figure a couple of them out, and the rest didn't have high enough 5 year DGRs. And, as stated above, no financials.
There ya go. Feedback is a gift
RE: Letting the dust settle... - EricL - 08-29-2013
I like the list, I think you did well.
I am long AFL, AAPL, CHD, CMI, COH, MCD, PM, TGT, UNP and WAG so I have 10 of your 15.
I used to own INTC but sold it recently and replaced it with IBM.
I own EOG, CVX, OXY, BP, COP and PSX for oil and gas plays and MDU for hybrid utility/oil play. MDU has had slow dividend growth in recent years but seems to be clicking on all cylinders now with growing oil production, refining and midstream projects so I am hoping the dividing raises are a little higher in the next couple years.
Some other high dividend growth stocks that I own are PII, THO, RGR, ROST, ABC and QCOM.
RE: Letting the dust settle... - Kerim - 09-01-2013
Nice work, Ok Red! There a a number of stocks on that list that I am unfamiliar with -- I'm looking forward to exploring them.
RE: Letting the dust settle... - Ok Red - 09-02-2013
Thanks, Kerim and EricL.
I'm looking forward to seeing the correlations between past dividend data and future dividend performance. That, of course, is where the rubber meets the road, but it will take a while. Kind of a slow process after the initial purchases are made!
EricL, I'm looking for about 5 more stocks to get a bit more diversification and I will check out the oil plays and the other dividend growers on your list. I've got a couple more that are on my watchlist - LMT, MSFT, SU, COP
Kerim, if you find any holes please share that info! I do not claim to be any kind of super investor and anticipate that I will make some adjustments as time passes and I watch the results unfold. You'll find that some are smaller companies and so not well known.
RE: Letting the dust settle... - Ok Red - 09-02-2013
Oh, and I added ACN to the list late on Friday. Current yield 2.24%, 1 Yr 50%, 3 Yr 39.2, 5 yr 31%.
RE: Letting the dust settle... - Ok Red - 10-01-2013
And a month later I have ditched AAPL and INTC. I'm looking for stocks to hold for the long term and tech stocks in general don't fit that profile. The tech landscape is littered with wreckage... Blackberry, Palm, etc. I'm just not willing to spend that much life energy trying to figure out if they will be able to increase growth (and therefore dividends) and so off they go. I did manage to make a couple hundred bucks and so it's all good
RE: Letting the dust settle... - TomK - 10-03-2013
I agree with those trades. AAPL and INTC are fine companies, but as I've said before, tech just doesn't allow me to comfortably plan to hold for decades.