(05-05-2021, 01:44 PM)EricL Wrote:

(05-05-2021, 01:39 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Thanks for the tips

I will be watching CVS for a dip.  I do shop there practically every day.  But if it does dip, I'll have to liquidate something else to acquire it.

CVS is trading at a 10.9 PE.

How cheap are you hoping to get it?

(05-05-2021, 03:10 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I realize my company's peers NOW and CRM are also down (though at a lower percentage), and the market hates the nasdaq right now, but it is a very helpless feeling watching my company stock just continue down.

(05-05-2021, 03:45 PM)stockguru Wrote:

(05-05-2021, 03:10 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I realize my company's peers NOW and CRM are also down (though at a lower percentage), and the market hates the nasdaq right now, but it is a very helpless feeling watching my company stock just continue down.

Just a rotation. Happens all the time. Those companies are great buys now. Add more 

(05-05-2021, 05:39 PM)Otter Wrote: DASH is trash. AAPL, ADP, AMZN, BABA, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, ORCL, PLTR, PYPL, SQ, and dozens of other tech companies are not. This isn't the late 90s where almost everything listed on the NASDAQ was a purely speculative play with no profits anywhere to be seen. It's just standard sector rotation.

Tech should continue to be where the growth is for quite a while. It has been one of the brightest spots in the economy for the past 20 years, and should continue to outperform for decades to come.

Railroads remained a pretty lucrative investment and high-growth industry for roughly a century. Hard to imagine now with industrials being so cyclical, and just following the rest of economic activity around, but industrials were the IT of their day once the U.S. began industrializing in earnest after the Civil War. The industrials boom didn't start to taper off domestically until the 1960s. It succeeded in taking us from a majority rural and agrarian population to a majority urban population with necessary supporting industrial output to sustain that. Took a very long time to build out the infrastructure, and was extremely profitable.

From a long-term perspective, we are still in the first innings of tech being the primary growth engine of our economy. Lots of wealth creation still to go.

(05-05-2021, 05:52 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-05-2021, 05:39 PM)Otter Wrote: DASH is trash. AAPL, ADP, AMZN, BABA, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, ORCL, PLTR, PYPL, SQ, and dozens of other tech companies are not. This isn't the late 90s where almost everything listed on the NASDAQ was a purely speculative play with no profits anywhere to be seen. It's just standard sector rotation.

Tech should continue to be where the growth is for quite a while. It has been one of the brightest spots in the economy for the past 20 years, and should continue to outperform for decades to come.

Railroads remained a pretty lucrative investment and high-growth industry for roughly a century. Hard to imagine now with industrials being so cyclical, and just following the rest of economic activity around, but industrials were the IT of their day once the U.S. began industrializing in earnest after the Civil War. The industrials boom didn't start to taper off domestically until the 1960s. It succeeded in taking us from a majority rural and agrarian population to a majority urban population with necessary supporting industrial output to sustain that. Took a very long time to build out the infrastructure, and was extremely profitable.

From a long-term perspective, we are still in the first innings of tech being the primary growth engine of our economy. Lots of wealth creation still to go.

For the rest of our lives, and the market will over-react in both directions along the way like it always has. 

This is why I was concerned with Ken's port when he first got here.  A port that was 75% tech and mostly triple leveraged.  Not many could withstand an actual drawdown without being shaken out, or at least worrying about it all the time.  He's clearly a nice guy and I didn't want to "witness" that.  It's actually none of my business but glad he added some diversification.  Unleveraged chip stocks could pull back another 15%.  I don't expect that but they aren't dirt cheap after this pullback.

(05-05-2021, 05:19 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Have to add that humans are emotional and herding creatures.  Fear and Greed, Risk on-Risk Off.  Follow the money from one sector to another. The market is our collective scoreboard.  If we were risk off the wide market indexes will dip.  People want cash and JNJ isn't even quite safe enough.  Total risk-on mode and a company doesn't even need revenue, let alone profits. The gamblers will herd like sheep into whatever is the flavor of the week.  That happened for at least six months.  Stocks that are likely worth about zero doubled or more.  The pendulum swung the other way and to some degree you have a flight to quality.  Every stock that flew high and pulled back 65% will not necessarily recover, but a lot of them will at least bounce.  The market is likely to be a little discerning for awhile, or maybe for a long time.  

Tech isn't dead, but in the end trash is trash.  Valuation does matter eventually.  If the company you work for is growing revenues and hopefully earning soon,  they will find true value, and may even go parabolic again the next time the market is risk on.  FANG stocks just crushed earnings and the market yawned and other indexes hit new highs.  That's a solid sign of a rotation.  It's also a solid sign we are no longer fully risk on in equities.  It's clear some of the speculative money left for crypto, and institutions have pulled some money out of the stock market, at least for now.

Natural resources are safe for now, and have growth potential that is sometimes absent for years.  Oil was hated for a couple years and now it looks safe and at least somewhat profitable for years to come.  Chip stocks have an uncertain story even though we know the ending will be fine.  Solar was on fire and many of the companies will never be profitable.  Same with EVs.  The money just rotates and if the story is real it will return sooner rather than later.  At some point it will be more discerning and separate the strong companies in a sector from the bad.  When a sector is hot it almost doesn't even matter how efficient your business is.  Even the bad companies will participate to some degree.

That was a long way around saying be patient and don't buy junk you are afraid to hold when the sheep flock somewhere else for a while.  Every time the market gets hit hard I am staring at those three stocks in my port wondering what I was thinking when I bought them.  It's human nature.

(05-05-2021, 06:00 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-05-2021, 05:52 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-05-2021, 05:39 PM)Otter Wrote: DASH is trash. AAPL, ADP, AMZN, BABA, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, ORCL, PLTR, PYPL, SQ, and dozens of other tech companies are not. This isn't the late 90s where almost everything listed on the NASDAQ was a purely speculative play with no profits anywhere to be seen. It's just standard sector rotation.

Tech should continue to be where the growth is for quite a while. It has been one of the brightest spots in the economy for the past 20 years, and should continue to outperform for decades to come.

Railroads remained a pretty lucrative investment and high-growth industry for roughly a century. Hard to imagine now with industrials being so cyclical, and just following the rest of economic activity around, but industrials were the IT of their day once the U.S. began industrializing in earnest after the Civil War. The industrials boom didn't start to taper off domestically until the 1960s. It succeeded in taking us from a majority rural and agrarian population to a majority urban population with necessary supporting industrial output to sustain that. Took a very long time to build out the infrastructure, and was extremely profitable.

From a long-term perspective, we are still in the first innings of tech being the primary growth engine of our economy. Lots of wealth creation still to go.

For the rest of our lives, and the market will over-react in both directions along the way like it always has. 

This is why I was concerned with Ken's port when he first got here.  A port that was 75% tech and mostly triple leveraged.  Not many could withstand an actual drawdown without being shaken out, or at least worrying about it all the time.  He's clearly a nice guy and I didn't want to "witness" that.  It's actually none of my business but glad he added some diversification.  Unleveraged chip stocks could pull back another 15%.  I don't expect that but they aren't dirt cheap after this pullback.

Over any long-term view, the market is up, and by predictable percentages over decades-long time windows. The drops are brief and essentially meaningless on just about any 10+ year chart when looking at entire indexes. 

By 2030 NASDAQ is likely to be somewhere between 30,000 and 45,000

By 2040 probably in the neighborhood of 75,000-110,000

I don't use leverage. Any option I sell is a covered call or cash-secured put. Just a personal preference thing, as I don't like personal debt (and have completely opposite views on America's sovereign debt, but I can't legally print dollars in my basement and force nation states to price the basic input of almost all economic output in those dollars).

I would never fault anyone for skipping on trying to pick winners/losers in the tech space, given how quickly it changes. I would also never fault anyone for having a sizable chunk of their portfolio tied up in QQQ for a few decades. That's probably a really smart move.