(04-15-2021, 08:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Minimum wage in any real form isn't even on the front burner at the moment.  Last I heard they are talking about staggering raises progressively for five years to $15.  AMZN, TGT ,HD , LOW plus more are already on about year four due to market pressure and blowing away profit records.  You can check the tape on the profits. It surprised me.

I think SPY is good for a few hundred more points in 2021 due to liquidity and TINA but we are overdue for some chop.  Probably by summer.  Market didn't care about over valuation 20% ago so I am not going to know when the music stops in advance.  The super specs pulled back and the market barely blinked.

(04-15-2021, 09:58 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Depends where ones holdings are now maybe?  VBIN has been at 50% most of the time for a long while.  Others are at 100% in always because they know the difference between investing and amateur market timing.  Even the Pros don't have a good timing record or more than a minority would best SPY but they don't.  Glad I wasn't out lately because my port was up hard while specs pulled back 25%.  I don't pretend to know.  I always have cash though.  We might guess right or not.  What has changed since the last time you bought stocks a week ago?
I don't like current valuations even a little.  That was true for many stocks 6 months ago.

(04-15-2021, 10:55 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

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It's getting tougher.  Being all in if your entry is recent comes with considerable risk of waiting years to get back to even.  We'll get a dip before long and see what happens.  Everyone is programmed to buy a dip. That probably works a while longer.  Earnings might make it a sector thing.

(04-16-2021, 06:42 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Is it possible the correction would take the form of a choppy market for a while, rather than a violent downswing?

(04-16-2021, 07:03 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Anyone age 45 should mostlly ignore this conversation.  Anyone riding a port with a 2X beta will get thoughts and prayers from Divmenow and I eventually.  For awhile now 2022 has been my concern.  I see no immediate end to government juice.

(04-15-2021, 11:33 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-15-2021, 10:55 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

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It's getting tougher.  Being all in if your entry is recent comes with considerable risk of waiting years to get back to even.  We'll get a dip before long and see what happens.  Everyone is programmed to buy a dip. That probably works a while longer.  Earnings might make it a sector thing.

The market is over valued by 34.8 percent right now. I have the graphs and proof just how extended these valuations really are lol.  I don’t need to sell everything and go 100% cash.  Even if we drop 20% here I’m protected and my loss would be minimal. I’m protected and rebalanced to survive a big correction. So they could go to zero and I’m fine lol. My cash is earning .70% each month and that earns me enough where I’m happy while it wait. I am all about a correction. It’s needs to bring new money in .  And they need to flush people out. It will be healthy and much needed. It’s just a matter of when. 

Some sectors are already in bear territory. The dividend stocks will be next to retreat.  Those lofty levels can’t be supported.  The S&P is now priced for 2023 and beyond.  I don’t have the why and why not answer.  I’m just going by instincts. I can remember when the pandemic hit and at the time I lightened up and went 70% cash. That turned out to be a great idea and got back in at or near the lows.  Now we’re way up and when near bankrupt companies are at all time highs. That’s scary to process lol . Just think about stocks like SIX, RRGB ect. The list is mile long. These companies are in trouble and won’t survive yet they get bid up.  Lucky those investors for now lol

That’s all for now. We will see if the Bears attack or the bull keeps charging  lol