(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-07-2021, 03:07 PM)stockguru Wrote:

(04-07-2021, 02:58 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Are we looking at the same RA?  It traded in the low 20s basically until it crashed and burned in March 2020, dropping to 13, and it has now climbed back up to 21.  Also they haven't cut their dividend recently.

That's my point on RA. Its back to where it was and toped out at $22 which is where it is now. The 5 year high is $22 and with these monthly dividend stocks when they run up this much they tend to correct and give you better buying opportunities.

I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

(04-08-2021, 10:19 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-07-2021, 03:07 PM)stockguru Wrote:

(04-07-2021, 02:58 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Are we looking at the same RA?  It traded in the low 20s basically until it crashed and burned in March 2020, dropping to 13, and it has now climbed back up to 21.  Also they haven't cut their dividend recently.

That's my point on RA. Its back to where it was and toped out at $22 which is where it is now. The 5 year high is $22 and with these monthly dividend stocks when they run up this much they tend to correct and give you better buying opportunities.

I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

The 10yr/1yr yield curve has been higher than it is now for most of the past decade, yet STWD is trading near ATH. You'd think 10yrs had popped to 3% yield with 1yr at 0 based on the recent price action.

(04-08-2021, 10:26 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:19 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-07-2021, 03:07 PM)stockguru Wrote:

(04-07-2021, 02:58 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Are we looking at the same RA?  It traded in the low 20s basically until it crashed and burned in March 2020, dropping to 13, and it has now climbed back up to 21.  Also they haven't cut their dividend recently.

That's my point on RA. Its back to where it was and toped out at $22 which is where it is now. The 5 year high is $22 and with these monthly dividend stocks when they run up this much they tend to correct and give you better buying opportunities.

I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

The 10yr/1yr yield curve has been higher than it is now for most of the past decade, yet STWD is trading near ATH. You'd think 10yrs had popped to 3% yield with 1yr at 0 based on the recent price action.

The level of deficit spending is going to get more insane.  We'll see if they can soft land this thing or not when the time comes.  I am not scared yet, but this will be tricky at some point.  I sold my STWD a few weeks ago. It was a good trade.  Thanks.

(04-08-2021, 10:33 AM)stockguru Wrote: Added OZK, AVGO and MO

Any thoughts on BMY and MRK ?

(04-08-2021, 10:32 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:26 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:19 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-07-2021, 03:07 PM)stockguru Wrote: That's my point on RA. Its back to where it was and toped out at $22 which is where it is now. The 5 year high is $22 and with these monthly dividend stocks when they run up this much they tend to correct and give you better buying opportunities.

I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

The 10yr/1yr yield curve has been higher than it is now for most of the past decade, yet STWD is trading near ATH. You'd think 10yrs had popped to 3% yield with 1yr at 0 based on the recent price action.

The level of deficit spending is going to get more insane.  We'll see if they can soft land this thing or not when the time comes.  I am not scared yet, but this will be tricky at some point.  I sold my STWD a few weeks ago. It was a good trade.  Thanks.

Mine got called away, and the position was way above strike when it happened. 

Fed will reinstate operation twist if the 10yrs get too high, as it risks the stability of the economy for the curve to get too steep. 

Other than near-term transitory inflation from the stimulus (which likely vanishes by the end of this year), I don't see anything in the long term economic picture that is substantially different from the decade+ bull market after 2008, where the Fed consistently had difficulty hitting its 2% annual inflation target. If the Fed announced today that it was halting its support for the bond market, everything would crash immediately in a deflationary spiral rivaling 2008.

(04-08-2021, 10:33 AM)stockguru Wrote: Added OZK, AVGO and MO

Any thoughts on BMY and MRK ?

(04-08-2021, 09:42 AM)Otter Wrote: Added to ABNB

(04-08-2021, 02:15 PM)vbin Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 09:42 AM)Otter Wrote: Added to ABNB

Don't they have 120 days lock up expiration coming up?

(04-08-2021, 01:19 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:32 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:26 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:19 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-08-2021, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I agree with you on this.  The risk reward is out of balance at the extreme ends of trading range.  It may well be over a year from now, but US finances have never been here before.  Old people hold these high yielders and they have a nervous trigger finger on the sell side at the first sign of trouble.  Something will trigger a dip.  The yields are high because their is always some financial engineering going on.  I get why people are attracted to the monthly payout but a 4% yielding blue chip with a decent chance of a 5% capital appreciation is where the bulk of my income bets will be placed.  The high yielders can pay off very nicely if you know when to trim or add shares.  I'm out for now.  The upside is just not there.

The 10yr/1yr yield curve has been higher than it is now for most of the past decade, yet STWD is trading near ATH. You'd think 10yrs had popped to 3% yield with 1yr at 0 based on the recent price action.

The level of deficit spending is going to get more insane.  We'll see if they can soft land this thing or not when the time comes.  I am not scared yet, but this will be tricky at some point.  I sold my STWD a few weeks ago. It was a good trade.  Thanks.

Mine got called away, and the position was way above strike when it happened. 

Fed will reinstate operation twist if the 10yrs get too high, as it risks the stability of the economy for the curve to get too steep. 

Other than near-term transitory inflation from the stimulus (which likely vanishes by the end of this year), I don't see anything in the long term economic picture that is substantially different from the decade+ bull market after 2008, where the Fed consistently had difficulty hitting its 2% annual inflation target. If the Fed announced today that it was halting its support for the bond market, everything would crash immediately in a deflationary spiral rivaling 2008.

Have we ever deficit spent $5T in a year?  That seems like where we are possibly headed, or something in that neighborhood.  I don't remember the US doing that before.