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+--- Thread: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread (/showthread.php?tid=2136)
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - cemanuel - 03-10-2022
And something growthier did drop to my price. Made the LMT sale, saw how the market was moving and set a LBO on MU at $75 which hit. I imagine by 4 I'll wonder why I didn't set it for $73 but $75 is my target price. That's how I roll.
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - fenders53 - 03-10-2022
(03-09-2022, 10:55 AM)cemanuel Wrote:You know how it goes. Somebody can show up at the perfect time and think the stock that was been tormenting you for 10 yrs is wonderful because they happen to be up 20% off a low in three months months.(03-09-2022, 10:36 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(03-09-2022, 10:26 AM)cemanuel Wrote: Dividend means little when that is about all you are getting in a long bull run.It's OK we disagree. I've just never been pleased with zero cap gain for decades. Zero is a really small number. I want a little something for my risk of holding an equity.
I disagree. When the goal of an account is to generate dividends, dividends mean everything. Nice to get some cap gains - and they usually come - but that's not really the point.
No problem. This nice thing is that with the right company cap gains usually come. But I don't mind having some where it doesn't - VZ for example. I've only owned PFE since 2018 so I haven't been displeased though if I were starting out without having to worry about taxes I wouldn't be buying it now.
I suspect in the not too distant future I may balance sales of it with T sales to cover cap gains. Though I'll have do some math. Selling spinco as if it were a special dividend counts for something too. But after the last few weeks I'm about math'd out for a bit.
Debated doing some IRA stuff yesterday with the big drop, decided one day after I finished buying for it was a bit quick but there was some stuff cheap. It was very tempting to go overweight some shares and sell once they take back 20-30%. I'm not sure big drops are finished with what's going on - February CPI is tomorrow plus geopolitical - so I may organize myself for the next one.
Timing does matter and we can't get them all right.
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - cemanuel - 04-02-2022
Here are my numbers for March. Keep in mind the dividend numbers for the IRAs and overall are meaningless - with the T-IRA in place everything's skewed. But I'm plugging them in to keep track and a year from now they'll start to mean something again.
Metric IRAs Taxable Overall
Buys 38 2 40
Sells 7 1 8
Dividend Increase
over March, 2021 200.20% 5.52% 40.75%
Dividend Increase
over December, 2021 533.10% 1.55% 47.96%
Change in value
over 2/28/22 2.07% 3.05% 2.53%
Current Dividend Yield 1.15% 2.56% 1.81%
Change in 12-mo
projected Dividend
Income fr 2/28/22 -4.25% .85% -.93%
Organic/Internal
annual DGR 14.57% 9.44% N/A
Most transactions were from finishing filling my IRA. In my Roth I swapped out WHR for KLAC. In my taxable account I sold PFE and replaced it with WHR and BBY.
I received dividend increases from ADM, NEE, PFE and WHR.
Easily a record high dividend month for me but that doesn't mean much as it was from the IRA boost. A solid - not great - month in my Taxable Account. April looks like it will be excellent though. The BBY dividend increase and my owning more of it will make a big difference.
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - cemanuel - 04-05-2022
I stress quarter comparisons quite a bit as I am looking to manage cash in retirement that way. With the IRA in play dividends don't compare however I did take a look at balances for my Roth and Taxable Account - I did not for my IRA vs my 403b as I had that fortunate happening where I took things to cash about 10 days before I started making stock buys. I guess I should take some credit as I sold my MFs after seeing the January CPI report in February and thinking about the likely near-term market direction but the timing of the rollover was happenstance. Still, it saved me about 5% in that account and the market dropping right when I was buying also was lucky - for my investments anyway. Terrible in about every other way. I'm leaving the math alone there, it's not repeatable and has no future investment implications for me.
But in looking at my Roth and Taxable Account I can say nothing happened during Q1. My balance at the close of trading on 3/31/22 was $37.34 less than it was on December 31, 2021 for a 7-figure account. The epitome of, "nothing to see here, please move along."
I did reach an ATH the previous Tuesday but it had pulled back by the end of the month - after yesterday it was back above where it had been earlier but not to the level of the 29th.
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - cemanuel - 04-18-2022
I'm a pretty infrequent trader in my taxable account. If nothing else, having to pay taxes on gains is an inhibitor. But I make occasional moves, including last week. I thought I'd go through these and their impact on my dividend income.
- 4/11/22 - Sold WBD at $25.25. As the taxable account's main purpose is to provide me with income it had no place there. If I owned it in one of my TR accounts I more than likely would have held.
- 4/13/22 - Sold ADM at $96.00. I have certain dividend income guidelines for this account. I own some very low yielders such as MSFT and UNH. My guideline is that if a company yields under 2% it should be annually increasing its dividend by 10% or more.* When ADM went over $80 it no longer met the 2% threshold and it's usually raised its dividend by 5% or so annually. Also, while I think it will continue heading up I don't see this being at the pace of the past couple of months. I did contemplate waiting for $100 but this could be a while. Or today.
- 4/13/22 - Bought T at $19.20. I wouldn't be able to bring a strong argument to someone questioning this move however it was yielding 5.8% and I am living off dividends from this account today. Hopefully they'll resume dividend growth in a couple of years.
- 4/14/22 - Bought WHR at $175.00. It's yielding 4% at this level and has a double-digit 5-yr DGR including monster recent hikes. Not a big growth or cap gains company IMO.
- 4/14/22 - Bought BBY at $95.00. This one's yielding 3.7% at this level and also has a double digit 5-yr DGR. Better growth/cap gains prospects than WHR IMO.
My WHR and BBY buys were roughly twice the size of the T purchase. In essence - not exact - I used WBD to buy back the parent company and used ADM to buy BBY and WHR.
Here are the net impacts of all this on my dividend income.
- T dropping its dividend from $2.08 to $1.11 reduced my taxable account dividends by 2.71%
- The combination of selling a company yielding 1.67% and exchanging it for higher yielders increased my dividend income by 1.92% - and this is above the level it was at before T cut the dividend. I also increased my taxable account's 5-yr DGR from 9.44% to 9.97%.
Of course I'll need to pay taxes on this. This will result in less hurt this year than it would in the future. As I went into retirement with a large cash pool I shouldn't need to sell any stocks just for living expenses and I plugged my full budgeted retirement expenses in as my expected 2022 income level for quarterly payment purposes. But they still matter, particularly later in the year when I think about Roth Conversions and what Taxable Income level I want to use for them.
Still, while taxes are a factor, I'm trying not to let them keep me from making what I think are necessary moves.
Other companies I considered buying were FAF and HD. But I don't consider FAF to be quite the DGR quality of the two I picked up and while HD is trading at a discount to recent valuations, its yield is much lower and the company is projecting slow growth in 2022.
And thank you ADM. All my buys were in early 2019 in the $42 range. This was not a company I ever expected much from in cap gains and considering dividends (and not considering taxes) it returned 152.90%. Very much a windfall.
*I'm sure I own some paying more like 8-9%. And AAPL is my number 1 position by size but it's a "pseudo-cash" position which I'll periodically trim to make up for my dividend income "gap." I also own GOOGL, same purpose.
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - fenders53 - 04-18-2022
Look like reasonable moves to me. And yes that ADM was really something. I sold too soon. It's been looking expensive for awhile now. It's hard to imagine it has room to run after grain and food prices peak. (I'd like that is this year)
I intend to join you in WHR when it shows signs of a bottom. The yield is just fine now. The COVID bump was amazing.
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - cemanuel - 04-18-2022
(04-18-2022, 07:19 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Look like reasonable moves to me. And yes that ADM was really something. I sold too soon. It's been looking expensive for awhile now. It's hard to imagine it has room to run after grain and food prices peak. (I'd like that is this year)
I intend to join you in WHR when it shows signs of a bottom. The yield is just fine now. The COVID bump was amazing.
I don't think it will run. I do think that if sector rotation continues it could walk, baby steps. It's not just grain. They have a large biofuels presence. But IMO the big gains are in.
But I could be wrong. If you'd asked me about its potential for cap gains when I bought it 3 years back I'd have been dead wrong then.
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - fenders53 - 04-18-2022
(04-18-2022, 08:28 AM)cemanuel Wrote:I am surrounded by ADM plants. The stock usually just chugs along and causes no worries. Used to pay a nice yield but that is over for awhile. Maybe a long while.(04-18-2022, 07:19 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Look like reasonable moves to me. And yes that ADM was really something. I sold too soon. It's been looking expensive for awhile now. It's hard to imagine it has room to run after grain and food prices peak. (I'd like that is this year)
I intend to join you in WHR when it shows signs of a bottom. The yield is just fine now. The COVID bump was amazing.
I don't think it will run. I do think that if sector rotation continues it could walk, baby steps. It's not just grain. They have a large biofuels presence. But IMO the big gains are in.
But I could be wrong. If you'd asked me about its potential for cap gains when I bought it 3 years back I'd have been dead wrong then.
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - cemanuel - 04-30-2022
April Portfolio Update. Keep in mind that dividend comparisons other than for my Taxable Account are worthless due to the IRA. They'll start to matter again soon.
The biggest portfolio news is that I was able to make some moves following the T dividend cut to actually increase my projected 12-month dividend income by nearly 2%. I will owe some cap gains on that but as I had a large cash pool going into retirement this will be easier for me to manage than in subsequent years. The likely impact is reducing the Roth Conversion amount I take from my IRA in December.
Very strong dividend month in my Taxable Account, even not counting the WBD spinoff as a special.
As with some other things, now that the IRA has been up for a while I've decided keeping FSMEX makes less sense than I thought. There are a couple of Med device/tech companies I'm looking at, particularly TMO. Anyway, I'm going with individual stocks.
I've made my first cash withdrawal from my Taxable Account, 2.17% of the portfolio value, for living expenses. So this will be the last month it will be any use tracking gains/losses against the market. I'll keep posting it though. I'm interested to see if, long-term, I will continue to gain value despite taking money out.
I'm not sure what to account for when it comes to the big Taxable Account YoY dividend jump. I own more BBY and it pays (a lot) more. I'm sure the others that paid all had dividend increases. But it still seems a little large - not that I'm complaining.
Here are the numbers:
Metric IRAs Taxable Total
Buys 4 3 6
Sells 2 2 4
Dividend Increase
over April, 2021 372.68% 28.51% 69.34%
Dividend Increase
over January, 2022 334.78% 8.79% 42.48%
Change in value
over 3/31/22 -11.91% -4.74% -8.17%
Current Dividend
Yield 1.51% 2.80% 2.13%
Change in 12-mo
projected Dividend
Income fr 3/31/22 16.38% 1.92% 6.79%
Organic/Internal
annual DGR 14.23% 9.97% N/A
Taxable Account Transactions:
Sales:
4/11/22 – WBD, $25.25
4/13/22 – ADM, $96.00
Buys:
4/13/22 – T, $19.20
4/14/22 – WHR, $175.00
4/14/22 – BBY, $95.00
Roth Transactions:
Sales:
4/6/22 – NEE, $86.34
Buys:
4/8/22 – LRCX, $496.00
4/20/22 – BBY, $94.84
IRA Transactions:
Sales:
4/25/22 – FSMEX, $65.07
Buys:
4/26/22 – RY, $102.34
4/26/22 – TD, $72.09
Dividend Increases Received: BBY, $.70 to $.88/share; QSR, $.53 to $.54 per share
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - fenders53 - 04-30-2022
Looks like a good month. WHR is holding up nicely so far. I have been selling covered puts on BBY in the high 80s for awhile now. The income s nice and eventually I will get in a little but lower than here. Everybody on earth has a sell on them now so most of the bad news should be in. We'll see.
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - cemanuel - 06-02-2022
Here's my May portfolio update. Net worth is no longer useful for my taxable account as I withdrew a little over 2% of the account value in accumulated dividends to live on. But I'll keep posting them.
The dividend decreases in the taxable account both over last May and February are from the T dividend cut. I did not include WBD shares received and sold as a special dividend though I used them this way. However my 12-month forward dividend projection continued to increase so all is good.
In June LYB pays a massive special dividend. I own a lot of it so it'll blow the doors off every dividend measurement I have. Temporary though, as is my ownership of most of the shares I bought on May 31. But I'll take it.
One other big change is that starting in June I expect to make Roth conversions from my IRA. I don't know everything I'll do but I do know one move:
From this point forward, rather than using IRA dividends to buy more stocks in my IRA, I'll convert them to the Roth and make buys there. I also may, whenever I decide to make a IRA trade, after selling, transfer the money and make the buy in the Roth - not 100% on that but starting to think that way.
Not 100% on where to pay the taxes from. I was going to hold back some of the IRA withdrawal to pay them but my Fidelity guy strongly urged me to make Taxable Account sales and use that. This one I need to think over. No big deal if all I convert are IRA dividends but if we start getting into big numbers I may reduce the dividend-producing capacity of the Taxable Account.
So I need to think that over.
Here are the numbers:
Metric IRAs Taxable Total
Buys 1 1 2
Sells 0 1 1
Dividend Increase
over May, 2021 333.67% -2.97% 26.17%
Dividend Increase
over February, 2022 334.78% -5.88% 21.66%
Change in value
over 4/30/22 .80% .35% .59%
Current Dividend Yield 1.53% 2.81% 2.14%
Change in 12-mo
projected Dividend
Income fr 4/30/22 1.78% .86% 1.20%
Organic/Internal
annual DGR 14.22% 9.88% N/A
Taxable Account Transactions:
Sales:
5/24/22 – WHR, $172.56
Buys:
5/31/22 – LYB, $115.88
T-IRA Transactions:
Buys:
5/18/22 – WSM, $110.00
Dividend Increases Received: AAPL, $.22 to $.23 per share; GD, $1.19 to $1.26 per share; WSM, $.71 to $.78 per share
Dividend Cuts Received: T from $2.08 to $1.11 per share
RE: Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread - rayray - 06-02-2022
i know i'll be in this boat one day and will have to transfer funs from traditional ira to roth--read a little but never delved into it
is there a maximum/limit to convert??