(03-23-2021, 08:51 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I was about half done building a TSM position.  AMD doesn't fab chips.  That takes big capital they don't have.  The world needs more capacity.  Coming out of a recession and scores of companies can't  get chips.  Auto companies with lines shut down etc.  Seems crazy that could happen.  5G will make the shortages worse as more devices are in use.  If semi stocks aren't a decent investment  now we should just give up lol.

EDIT- if I am wrong about AMD please correct me.  I was under the impression they spent 25 years trying to dethrone INTC because they had trouble competing with their ability to fab in mass qty before they forgot how to execute on the cutting edge tech.

(03-23-2021, 09:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote: On another subject I tried to do some DD on EV battery trends and associated raw materials.  Sounds like there will be a rush to mine everything as new battery types evolve in a hurry.  Maybe CAT is going to $500 after all.  

(03-23-2021, 09:51 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I traded it several times last year and of course a hold would have been better.  Great company but it is as cyclical as it gets and the PE is really getting out of range before they even peak earnings.  No idea how high it goes if infrastructure bills come to fruition.  I know I wouldn't buy and hold a lot of $250+ shares.  You will be sad in a couple years.  Same with Deere.  That's the downside to being awarded a tech stock PE.

My crystal ball says your price target has decent risk reward because I know you are smart enough to bail if the investment thesis starts looking shaky.  We have no clue what bill passes.  They might build bridges, windmills, inner city housing, or next to nothing.

(03-23-2021, 10:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Just saw the AMD link.  I know they are doing well.  I was commenting on the new chip fab plants.  It matters to TSM and INTC.  AMD not so much if they remain high end chip designers.  I wasn't bashing them at all.  They have come a long way.

I actually owned AMD 20+ yrs ago.  INTC smashed competitors like a bug before FTC put a leash on them finally.  INTC and MSFT were brutal and got by with it for a long time.

(03-23-2021, 10:13 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(03-23-2021, 10:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Just saw the AMD link.  I know they are doing well.  I was commenting on the new chip fab plants.  It matters to TSM and INTC.  AMD not so much if they remain high end chip designers.  I wasn't bashing them at all.  They have come a long way.

I actually owned AMD 20+ yrs ago.  INTC smashed competitors like a bug before FTC put a leash on them finally.  INTC and MSFT were brutal and got by with it for a long time.

Well Intel is close to 10 years behind TSM technology wise, building 2 more plants with 10nm-14nm is useless while TSM can already mass produce 5nm today with a breeze.

So I don’t trust that Intel is going to building 2 plants in AZ and start to make 7nm in 2024? TSM is already scheduled to make 3nm in 2024.

So INTC us light years away from making any dent lol. Which is why this is such an over reaction.

(03-23-2021, 10:14 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I think it's a certainty CAT is going to sell mining equipment and that staff is priced like aircraft.  There is a shortage of many things that have to be mined soon.