(10-29-2021, 01:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I just saw DFEN and DRN are both triple leveraged.  If I had short term sector rotation advice I'd leverage up too and retire 10 years ago.  

I know you won't listen but I would limit my leverage to sectors I was very knowledgeable in.  Tech for example.  You'd be less inclined to fold for no reason.  I spent 34 years working for the DOD and I have never leveraged defense.  I doubt you have any business leveraging the sector.  Real estate is bubbly now.  You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?

(10-29-2021, 01:50 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 01:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I just saw DFEN and DRN are both triple leveraged.  If I had short term sector rotation advice I'd leverage up too and retire 10 years ago.  

I know you won't listen but I would limit my leverage to sectors I was very knowledgeable in.  Tech for example.  You'd be less inclined to fold for no reason.  I spent 34 years working for the DOD and I have never leveraged defense.  I doubt you have any business leveraging the sector.  Real estate is bubbly now.  You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?

Actually my plan is to eliminate my DFEN position completely next year, once all the above-water purchases are a year old.

> You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?

Okay, maybe I don't : So you are saying if/when mortgage rates rise, the REITs will all go down in value?

(10-29-2021, 02:32 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Admittedly I do dread a -10% year.  The good news is that when looking at S&P 500 historical annual returns, I don't see too many multi-down years.  2000-2002 is really the biggie.  When a bad year hits, I hope I'm smart enough to either go to cash early, or ride it out.  There's been several times this year when people on the forum have told me leverage is foolish, but I stayed in and TECL for instance is at its all-time high now.

That said, you are right my trust factor in TECL, SOXL, TQQQ, CURE, and SPXL is much higher than the others.

I will do more research on the state of mortgage rates and reits, and maybe pull out of DRN in January if it is prudent.

(10-29-2021, 03:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 02:32 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Admittedly I do dread a -10% year.  The good news is that when looking at S&P 500 historical annual returns, I don't see too many multi-down years.  2000-2002 is really the biggie.  When a bad year hits, I hope I'm smart enough to either go to cash early, or ride it out.  There's been several times this year when people on the forum have told me leverage is foolish, but I stayed in and TECL for instance is at its all-time high now.

That said, you are right my trust factor in TECL, SOXL, TQQQ, CURE, and SPXL is much higher than the others.

I will do more research on the state of mortgage rates and reits, and maybe pull out of DRN in January if it is prudent.

You are looking through rose colored glasses, acting like the GFC was no big deal.  It was a retirement date killer even without leverage.

If I were in charge of your money I would still let you have fun lol, but this is what I would make you do.....

3X QQQ and the SOXX.  Some non leveraged of the same you could just hold if it gets crazy.  You can overweight your favorite sector without losing your mind with greed.  You don't seem to scare out of this sector.  

The rest would not be leveraged because you are flying blind leveraging biotech, real estate, commodities etc.  Those are just gambling with your knowledge base.  (or mine).  It makes absolutely no sense because you get scared and run when they dip.  I'd suggest it's because you don't understand the sector well enough to discern noise from long term real problems.  If one can be brave and scared in the same week that would be you lol.  The reality is it's easy to see your trust factor is BS.  You only "trust" things that haven't dipped for a few months.  

More attention to valuation on the individual stocks.  You are constantly selling a loser and buying FOMO.  It works until it doesn't.  You were waaay late to MRNA but I suppose it was still OK to buy a few shares.  We never know.  Then the FOMO got you and you bought more shares that may be underwater forever.  I buy anything I want, but the size is scaled to the risk.      

I expect you will run scared when a 10% down year happens and lose a lot of money flipping leverage to other leveraged securities that haven't dipped yet.  We'll just have to see how fast you can learn.  You aren't 25yrs old so it's not OK to get destroyed in a modest down market year.

(10-29-2021, 03:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 02:32 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Admittedly I do dread a -10% year.  The good news is that when looking at S&P 500 historical annual returns, I don't see too many multi-down years.  2000-2002 is really the biggie.  When a bad year hits, I hope I'm smart enough to either go to cash early, or ride it out.  There's been several times this year when people on the forum have told me leverage is foolish, but I stayed in and TECL for instance is at its all-time high now.

That said, you are right my trust factor in TECL, SOXL, TQQQ, CURE, and SPXL is much higher than the others.

I will do more research on the state of mortgage rates and reits, and maybe pull out of DRN in January if it is prudent.

You are looking through rose colored glasses, acting like the GFC was no big deal.  It was a retirement date killer even without leverage.

If I were in charge of your money I would still let you have fun lol, but this is what I would make you do.....

3X QQQ and the SOXX.  Some non leveraged of the same you could just hold if it gets crazy.  You can overweight your favorite sector without losing your mind with greed.  You don't seem to scare out of this sector.  

The rest would not be leveraged because you are flying blind leveraging biotech, real estate, commodities etc.  Those are just gambling with your knowledge base.  (or mine).  It makes absolutely no sense because you get scared and run when they dip.  I'd suggest it's because you don't understand the sector well enough to discern noise from long term real problems.  If one can be brave and scared in the same week that would be you lol.  The reality is it's easy to see your trust factor is BS.  You only "trust" things that haven't dipped for a few months.  

More attention to valuation on the individual stocks.  You are constantly selling a loser and buying FOMO.  It works until it doesn't.  You were waaay late to MRNA but I suppose it was still OK to buy a few shares.  We never know.  Then the FOMO got you and you bought more shares that may be underwater forever.  I buy anything I want, but the size is scaled to the risk.      

I expect you will run scared when a 10% down year happens and lose a lot of money flipping leverage to other leveraged securities that haven't dipped yet.  We'll just have to see how fast you can learn.  You aren't 25yrs old so it's not OK to get destroyed in a modest down market year.

(10-29-2021, 10:28 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 10:19 AM)vbin Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 09:13 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(10-29-2021, 08:53 AM)stockguru Wrote: Added SBUX

Is the PE under 50 yet?

Sbux to zero. Go to zero sbux.

Admittedly I don't like the coffee; but the chai tea lattes are nice and the food items are actually pretty good.  But zero?  Kinda harsh?

(10-29-2021, 01:28 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I just saw DFEN and DRN are both triple leveraged.  If I had short term sector rotation advice I'd leverage up too and retire 10 years ago.  

I know you won't listen but I would limit my leverage to sectors I was very knowledgeable in.  Tech for example.  You'd be less inclined to fold for no reason.  I spent 34 years working for the DOD and I have never leveraged defense.  I doubt you have any business leveraging the sector.  Real estate is bubbly now.  You want to catch the top in a 3x fund before mortgage rates rise?