(04-29-2020, 10:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: DAL up 20% this week.  Dividend gone for years and I'm seriously not sure they have the FCF next quarter to buy employees coffee and toilet paper.  I guess they can finance it.

F just announced they will lose the GNP of a small country the next few quarters.  Div cut for years and stock is only up a little today.  At least 20% up off it's low.

My purchases will be few and far between.  There will be true bargains eventually.  I'm starting to get bitter about this insanity.  I'm plenty long equities but I sure don't know how I justify it at this point.

(04-29-2020, 11:09 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 10:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: DAL up 20% this week.  Dividend gone for years and I'm seriously not sure they have the FCF next quarter to buy employees coffee and toilet paper.  I guess they can finance it.

F just announced they will lose the GNP of a small country the next few quarters.  Div cut for years and stock is only up a little today.  At least 20% up off it's low.

My purchases will be few and far between.  There will be true bargains eventually.  I'm starting to get bitter about this insanity.  I'm plenty long equities but I sure don't know how I justify it at this point.

I'm out of the market. Selling all the stuff I bought in recent months. Some are up 30% from where I got it lol. I'm going 80% cash and will put under my mattress until the market corrects at least 20% lol. No earnings going forward and heavy debt. All these companies are pulling guidance for a reason. We will be going into a recession. It's coming and also we have the presidential election coming up. Everything is based on the corona right now and that's a dangerous game. I don't care if this market goes up another 10% I'm not falling for it. I'm up 28.7% this year now with all the trading in and out and what not. Nothing wrong with that. I will live to fight another day! 

On the new stuff i bough recently I will just hold UPS, C and FRT and keep adding on dips. UPS will be one company I wll bank on of gaining 25% or more when it hits $115-$120 again. And of course I will hold onto my core holdings which will always be up unless the DOW hits 10,000 lol

(04-29-2020, 11:38 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 11:09 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 10:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: DAL up 20% this week.  Dividend gone for years and I'm seriously not sure they have the FCF next quarter to buy employees coffee and toilet paper.  I guess they can finance it.

F just announced they will lose the GNP of a small country the next few quarters.  Div cut for years and stock is only up a little today.  At least 20% up off it's low.

My purchases will be few and far between.  There will be true bargains eventually.  I'm starting to get bitter about this insanity.  I'm plenty long equities but I sure don't know how I justify it at this point.

I'm out of the market. Selling all the stuff I bought in recent months. Some are up 30% from where I got it lol. I'm going 80% cash and will put under my mattress until the market corrects at least 20% lol. No earnings going forward and heavy debt. All these companies are pulling guidance for a reason. We will be going into a recession. It's coming and also we have the presidential election coming up. Everything is based on the corona right now and that's a dangerous game. I don't care if this market goes up another 10% I'm not falling for it. I'm up 28.7% this year now with all the trading in and out and what not. Nothing wrong with that. I will live to fight another day! 

On the new stuff i bough recently I will just hold UPS, C and FRT and keep adding on dips. UPS will be one company I wll bank on of gaining 25% or more when it hits $115-$120 again. And of course I will hold onto my core holdings which will always be up unless the DOW hits 10,000 lol

What are all of your "core holdings" if you don't mind me asking?  Is it UPS, C and FRT or do you have other core holdings?  You trade a lot, which is completely fine of course, but I suspect some people think you are actually investing when you post 20 buys here some weeks.  We usually don't hear about any sells so it comes off like you must own 200 stocks.   Just asking because we converse daily.  (which I enjoy) 

I know I am the Super Bear here often, but I do keep most of my port invested while flipping a little in and out on the 10% runs in individual stocks.  For better or worse I also hedge a little to keep my port beta down some through an obvious recession coming.  I know I can't time the market consistently.  A 90 day win streak will mean absolutely nothing long-term so I don't even try.  I always have cash if the big one comes.

(04-29-2020, 01:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I hope this doesn't come across too harsh.  Thanks for posting all that, I just asked for context because we all read your posts.  If our buys matter then so do our sells.  I don't really care what you are buying on Tuesday if you are selling it on Thursday for a 3% gain and not telling us you're out. This is a DGI forum so whether you are day trading or investing is of some significance.  

As far as 1-2 share trades not mattering, please allow me to very strongly disagree.  I know with certainty a lot of the membership is doing exactly that because I chat with them offline.  That's exactly how I started 30 years ago and it damn sure did matter when I partially retired 10 years earlier than most ever dream of.  Rethink that thought because it comes off a little arrogant.

If you are holding 67 stocks and are up 28%+ YTD total port in a market that is down, that is nothing less than amazing.  You should share your exits because you got it figured out better than most pro traders.  We do that on the option thread chats for better or worse.  It sucks to admit to a loss but we do it.  Transparency is helpful.

(04-29-2020, 09:51 AM)kblake Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:32 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:28 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:18 AM)kblake Wrote: I just bought WMT. Its a reliable stock and one that will do well in any economy. Its down $4 today on rotation but I think this is a $150 stock by years end. COST also on my buy list.

Great company, but I don't see the value there. Trading at a decadal premium P/E of over 25, which is well above its 10yr average of 17.34. A reversion to mean over the next year would drop the price to ~$89/share. Earnings growth rate of only 1.58% over the past decade doesn't seem to justify the P/E premium. It's trading like a FAANG stock without the earnings growth to back it up, and with a total enterprise value of nearly half a trillion, the law of large numbers puts a cap on growth prospects.

Like AMZN, not a company I would ever short, but can't see buying in at these valuations. 

Money will rotate out of WMT and some of the over-hyped consumer non-durables when virus hoard frenzy ends.

I disagree. WMT deserves a higher multiple. I don't care about graphs or history. You can throw that all out. Stocks go up over the long term on fundamentals. And WMT is killing it especially on line. They are the 1 company that can compete with AMZN. Forward PE is only 16 which is cheap. There sales are the best they have been over the last 5 years.

(04-29-2020, 02:24 PM)fenders53 Wrote: At the risk of sounding overly-optimist, you all know I am pessimistic lately lol.   Dr Fauci commented on the GILD drug trials.  I believe all the patients in the test were severe.  8% fatalities instead of 11%.  That's over 30% improvement. That's a lot of saves worldwide.  Those who did  recover are out of ICU 11 days vs 15 days placebo.  Doesn't sound like a miracle drug, but somebody's grandmother gets to live and maybe they base a better drug off of REM soon.  I'm not all that hopeful for a vaccine soon but a way to treat it sure sounds good to me.

(04-29-2020, 02:10 PM)Otter Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:51 AM)kblake Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:32 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:28 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:18 AM)kblake Wrote: I just bought WMT. Its a reliable stock and one that will do well in any economy. Its down $4 today on rotation but I think this is a $150 stock by years end. COST also on my buy list.

Great company, but I don't see the value there. Trading at a decadal premium P/E of over 25, which is well above its 10yr average of 17.34. A reversion to mean over the next year would drop the price to ~$89/share. Earnings growth rate of only 1.58% over the past decade doesn't seem to justify the P/E premium. It's trading like a FAANG stock without the earnings growth to back it up, and with a total enterprise value of nearly half a trillion, the law of large numbers puts a cap on growth prospects.

Like AMZN, not a company I would ever short, but can't see buying in at these valuations. 

Money will rotate out of WMT and some of the over-hyped consumer non-durables when virus hoard frenzy ends.

I disagree. WMT deserves a higher multiple. I don't care about graphs or history. You can throw that all out. Stocks go up over the long term on fundamentals. And WMT is killing it especially on line. They are the 1 company that can compete with AMZN. Forward PE is only 16 which is cheap. There sales are the best they have been over the last 5 years.

Where are you getting a forward P/E of 16? FAST Graphs uses a blended P/E that blends TTM and forecast earnings. GuruFocus shows a forward P/E of 24. Yahoo Finance has 24.75.

I agree that in the long term, stocks are driven by fundamentals, which is why I think they are overvalued on pretty much any metric. Walmart is absolutely enjoying the best sales it has had in years, along with Costco and a number of grocery stores. I think that is more a short-term effect of them continuing to operate during lockdowns and the bulk buying that was occurring in anticipation of and during lockdowns. Their pre-COVID sales numbers are likely more reflective of what the company does in a normal business environment at the top of a bull market. 

Roughly 60% of Amazon earnings come from AWS, and not from low-margin retail. WMT would have to take substantial market share from AMZN at such low margins to justify paying $25 for each $1 of earnings, for me. 

For the same relative price, you can pay $25 for a $1 of ADP earnings, which has grown earnings by about 11% annually over the past decade (10x better than WMT). They also have an AA credit rating (.17 debt/equity ratio vs. .43 for WMT), 44 years of dividend growth history (47 for WMT), a current yield about 85 basis points higher than WMT, and a Chowder Number of 16 (vs. 4 for WMT).