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+--- Thread: The Speculative Stocks.... (/showthread.php?tid=1897)
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 02-29-2020
(02-29-2020, 09:51 PM)vbin Wrote: Has anyone looked into WES and BKR? Both looks attractive. Wes is low becouse OXY is forced into selling assets and WES is one it might sell and BKR due to GE. 2-3 years from now there is a good chance they might be trading at double prices from here. Buffet has a good position he initiated in OXY with Charlie's approval.
I am thinking to initiate a full position in all 3.
Buffet loan sharked OXY IMO. Good companies shouldn't be paying 8% interest. That is going to choke them. If OXY ever runs he can exercise warrants and sell into the rally. He got a good deal on KHC as well, but that one blew up on him so far. I don't chase his stocks when he got in at 50% off. He always gets a great deal, and I am starting to see it is often at the common stock holders expense. I love Uncle Warren, but when he enters a stock, I like to know the details.
I'll go check those other tickers you mentioned. I got my position in FCX. I'll keep it small, and it is nothing but a trade. It comes with a dividend but it is subject to be turned off when copper crashes. They do mine a little gold and some other metals. I will probably add a little FUN if they dip again. The flu will cause that for sure if the US gets scared.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - vbin - 03-01-2020
(02-29-2020, 10:21 PM)fenders53 Wrote:Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Here is what I think: the current div yield on oxy is 10%. More than what buffet is getting. The stoke is down more than 20% since he got the deal. Like you said he can exercise his warrents if the stock flies so it's in his interest that's stock does well. He will be watching. Oxy has some great assets. CEO clarified div isn't in danger for next 1 to 1.5 years and hopefully by then we will be able.to come down off this downward oil spiral. It isn't sustainable. Banks are already tightening the money on shale. If this continues, shale companies will go through real stress test, how many will survive? It's a cash crunch scenerio, unlike KHC. Oxy have been cutting debt aggressively. If i am not wrong they cut 35% already.(02-29-2020, 09:51 PM)vbin Wrote: Has anyone looked into WES and BKR? Both looks attractive. Wes is low becouse OXY is forced into selling assets and WES is one it might sell and BKR due to GE. 2-3 years from now there is a good chance they might be trading at double prices from here. Buffet has a good position he initiated in OXY with Charlie's approval.
I am thinking to initiate a full position in all 3.
Buffet loan sharked OXY IMO. Good companies shouldn't be paying 8% interest. That is going to choke them. If OXY ever runs he can exercise warrants and sell into the rally. He got a good deal on KHC as well, but that one blew up on him so far. I don't chase his stocks when he got in at 50% off. He always gets a great deal, and I am starting to see it is often at the common stock holders expense. I love Uncle Warren, but when he enters a stock, I like to know the details.
I'll go check those other tickers you mentioned. I got my position in FCX. I'll keep it small, and it is nothing but a trade. It comes with a dividend but it is subject to be turned off when copper crashes. They do mine a little gold and some other metals. I will probably add a little FUN if they dip again. The flu will cause that for sure if the US gets scared.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 03-01-2020
(03-01-2020, 12:49 AM)vbin Wrote:In the total picture of Buffet's investment, I don't think he is getting half the yield of common stock holders. That's not how he rolls usually. Definitely research that, and their current debt, cash flow etc. Same with any oil stock investment.(02-29-2020, 10:21 PM)fenders53 Wrote:Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Here is what I think: the current div yield on oxy is 10%. More than what buffet is getting. The stoke is down more than 20% since he got the deal. Like you said he can exercise his warrents if the stock flies so it's in his interest that's stock does well. He will be watching. Oxy has some great assets. CEO clarified div isn't in danger for next 1 to 1.5 years and hopefully by then we will be able.to come down off this downward oil spiral. It isn't sustainable. Banks are already tightening the money on shale. If this continues, shale companies will go through real stress test, how many will survive? It's a cash crunch scenerio, unlike KHC. Oxy have been cutting debt aggressively. If i am not wrong they cut 35% already.(02-29-2020, 09:51 PM)vbin Wrote: Has anyone looked into WES and BKR? Both looks attractive. Wes is low becouse OXY is forced into selling assets and WES is one it might sell and BKR due to GE. 2-3 years from now there is a good chance they might be trading at double prices from here. Buffet has a good position he initiated in OXY with Charlie's approval.
I am thinking to initiate a full position in all 3.
Buffet loan sharked OXY IMO. Good companies shouldn't be paying 8% interest. That is going to choke them. If OXY ever runs he can exercise warrants and sell into the rally. He got a good deal on KHC as well, but that one blew up on him so far. I don't chase his stocks when he got in at 50% off. He always gets a great deal, and I am starting to see it is often at the common stock holders expense. I love Uncle Warren, but when he enters a stock, I like to know the details.
I'll go check those other tickers you mentioned. I got my position in FCX. I'll keep it small, and it is nothing but a trade. It comes with a dividend but it is subject to be turned off when copper crashes. They do mine a little gold and some other metals. I will probably add a little FUN if they dip again. The flu will cause that for sure if the US gets scared.
Never mind all that for now. Oil isn't dead, but the short-term thesis is definitely broken, and the midterm may be as well. That's why about every one of these stocks is a falling knife chart pattern. I don't remember the last time they went up three days in a row. If you are buying to hold, I would go very slow if you aren't going to wait for a bottom, just in case the bottom is another 0% drop from here. If you are expecting the flu to get worse, it will hurt any prospect for world growth this year. Only a war act type interruption of oil supply could cause a V bottom.
Doesn't matter if it's oil. It's almost always a good idea to wait for some evidence any falling knife stock is at least trying to resist the free fall. Or as they say, don't fight the tape. I suppose the same could be said for the airline stocks I am buying. They are now spec stocks. I bought Delta, which is regarded as the best balance sheet in their industry. Kind of like XOM, they aren't filing BK, but competitors might. I like my entry price long-term, but it's very clear I was early. I'm am going to accept that reality. My reaction is not going to be buy more everyday and end up both overweight, and down 50%+. That's a recipe for waiting years to just get back to even. Not an acceptable strategy for me. Especially when most of the market is finally on sale. There are much more rational places to invest my money this month.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - crimsonghost747 - 03-02-2020
Well, this goes definitely in the speculative thread.
Today, for some reason way beyond comprehension, the markets in Europe opened at about +2%. I wasn't too surprised, I kinda expected it.. I just seriously don't understand WHY.
But anyway. Shorted the frenchies. Let's see how that one goes.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 03-02-2020
OK, so what does "shorting the Frenchies mean?"
The Speculative Stocks.... - vbin - 03-02-2020
What broker you guys use? I am thinking to move to chase.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - NilesMike - 03-02-2020
TD for trading
Vanguard for investing
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 03-02-2020
Sames as Mike. The industry is changing, but Vanguard always had the lowest fees on passive mutual funds like SP500 etc. I trade the account buy nothing fancy, and definitely no day trading unless you want to be put on their "watch list". TD Ameritrade is amazing for trading. Fast and their option software is famous.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - ChadR - 03-02-2020
E*Trade. Though with it being bought, I might change if they change up their format too much.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 03-02-2020
Really need to tell us why you want to switch, then we can tell you what you might gain. Now that all providers cost about the same cost, it really comes down to.
1. Your trading habits
2. Would you use free research if quality is good?
3. Proprietary free mutual funds and ETFs, access to others for free?
4. Easy access to a place to put your cash where it actually yields some competitive interest
5. System reliability when market is extreme high volume.
6. Intuitive system interface you can navigate at high speed when necessary.
7. Customer service
TD vs Vanguard,
I'd say TD wins 1-2-5-6. They are notably ahead on high speed interface. Research is very good for free. AWESOME for options. Customer service is decent. Friendly enough, I don't always feel like I am talking to a pro, but it's not like I call them a lot to judge fairly.
Vanguard wins 3-4-7. Their low cost index funds (stocks and bonds) are the industry standard, you don't have to go searching for a cash like fund to park your money. Some brokers will pay you about zero while your cash is parked if you allow it. Their stock research is VERY weak. I don't really have any issues with speed or interface, but I'm just managing a DGI and fund port in this account. Sell some covered puts that aren't very time sensitive. Limit orders execute perfectly 99% of the time. They seem to get me a better price at times. Customer service is very professional. I felt comfortable moving a large sum of money. If you have a decent sized account they move you to the head of the line when you call. They may all do that but there are different categories of customers at VG.
I've heard Schwab is very good for traders as well.
The Speculative Stocks.... - vbin - 03-02-2020
I use vanguard and robinhood mostly, I have ET from my employer but their user interface sucks.
Robinhood had an outage today and as I always suspected my decision to use them, it dint feel good to be locked down with my speculative trades on calls. They were in $500+ positive for each and I couldn't close them when I wanted. Their platform is definitely easy to use but not reliable as proved today. Will be moving away.
Looking for easy to use on mobile platform which is reliable( don't care about 0 commission that much). I am not a day trader and do play speculative trades with some funds.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 03-02-2020
(03-02-2020, 07:55 PM)vbin Wrote: I use vanguard and robinhood mostly, I have ET from my employer but their user interface sucks.
Robinhood had an outage today and as I always suspected my decision to use them, it dint feel good to be locked down with my speculative trades on calls. They were in $500+ positive for each and I couldn't close them when I wanted. Their platform is definitely easy to use but not reliable as proved today. Will be moving away.
Looking for easy to use on mobile platform which is reliable( don't care about 0 commission that much). I am not a day trader and do play speculative trades with some funds.
TD mobile seems fine. If you can use WIFI at work something like an Amazon fire is slick for a backup. They are very inexpensive and have a larger screen. I'm just using the PC format with that. I prefer it over a phone when I have a choice, but my phone is nothing special either. I hope the trades ended well enough, or are they still open? I heard the Robinhood episode was pretty much an all day event. That sucks.