(04-08-2020, 09:26 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-08-2020, 08:58 AM)divmenow Wrote: So AAPL, DRI and TWTR all upgraded to buy this morning. Very interesting. I can’t remember the last time I saw an upgrade lol. Maybe we have bottomed. Hmmm

There were a few upgrades about the time we bottomed  the SPY and some companies were getting way out of hand on the downside.  Most of the analysts seem to have froze due to lack of updated data.  Some companies will be in their pre-earning report lock up periods soon, if they aren't already.  We really do need earning #s soon, for better or worse.

(04-08-2020, 09:59 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-08-2020, 09:26 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-08-2020, 08:58 AM)divmenow Wrote: So AAPL, DRI and TWTR all upgraded to buy this morning. Very interesting. I can’t remember the last time I saw an upgrade lol. Maybe we have bottomed. Hmmm

There were a few upgrades about the time we bottomed  the SPY and some companies were getting way out of hand on the downside.  Most of the analysts seem to have froze due to lack of updated data.  Some companies will be in their pre-earning report lock up periods soon, if they aren't already.  We really do need earning #s soon, for better or worse.

The earrings are going to suck.. Just looks at all these companies announcing Withdrawing 2020 Outlook and Long-Term Outlook. MCD was the latest today. Pretty grim if you asked me. But don't worry these stocks will all trade higher again based on no earnings or fundematials . 


The Fed keeps buying up stocks to stay afloat. But that can only last for so long. At some point this will end. Pretty scary if you ask me going forward.

(04-08-2020, 09:59 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-08-2020, 09:26 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-08-2020, 08:58 AM)divmenow Wrote: So AAPL, DRI and TWTR all upgraded to buy this morning. Very interesting. I can’t remember the last time I saw an upgrade lol. Maybe we have bottomed. Hmmm

There were a few upgrades about the time we bottomed  the SPY and some companies were getting way out of hand on the downside.  Most of the analysts seem to have froze due to lack of updated data.  Some companies will be in their pre-earning report lock up periods soon, if they aren't already.  We really do need earning #s soon, for better or worse.

The earrings are going to suck.. Just looks at all these companies announcing Withdrawing 2020 Outlook and Long-Term Outlook. MCD was the latest today. Pretty grim if you asked me. But don't worry these stocks will all trade higher again based on no earnings or fundematials . 


The Fed keeps buying up stocks to stay afloat. But that can only last for so long. At some point this will end. Pretty scary if you ask me going forward.

(04-08-2020, 10:12 AM)NilesMike Wrote: MCD has traditionally had 70% of its sales from the drive through, they were well positioned for the crisis.

(04-08-2020, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-08-2020, 10:12 AM)NilesMike Wrote: MCD has traditionally had 70% of its sales from the drive through, they were well positioned for the crisis.

IMO they are about fully valued for all their sales today.  But they are MCD so the stock will be fine.  Their balance sheet isn't what it once was.  They are also a real estate company now with few company owned stores so they can't be valued quite the same vs historical.  I bought sub $130 shares so not being greedy.

(04-08-2020, 10:57 AM)fenders53 Wrote: We are going to struggle with recent low price bias.  I don't know about anybody else, but I didn't start a DGI port from scratch last month and buy all my positions at five year low prices.  This is why we need some earning guidance.  I was good with blindly buying quality brands that were suddenly 50% off.  Now I look at a stock only 15% off it's ATH and think hmmmmm, I wonder if they will struggle for five quarters with much higher debt?   That's not priced in anymore.  That greatly affects how much I am going to pay.  There will be more deals soon.

(04-08-2020, 10:59 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-08-2020, 10:57 AM)fenders53 Wrote: We are going to struggle with recent low price bias.  I don't know about anybody else, but I didn't start a DGI port from scratch last month and buy all my positions at five year low prices.  This is why we need some earning guidance.  I was good with blindly buying quality brands that were suddenly 50% off.  Now I look at a stock only 15% off it's ATH and think hmmmmm, I wonder if they will struggle for five quarters with much higher debt?   That's not priced in anymore.  That greatly affects how much I am going to pay.  There will be more deals soon.

Yes. I have been waiting for more clarity on the "E" side of the P/E equation. That clarity will also end up moving the P.

Edited to add - The "E" information also plays in to most of my other metrics for determining DGI value, like payout ratio, and how realistic Chowder Numbers based on past 5yrs results are likely to be.

(04-08-2020, 10:59 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-08-2020, 10:57 AM)fenders53 Wrote: We are going to struggle with recent low price bias.  I don't know about anybody else, but I didn't start a DGI port from scratch last month and buy all my positions at five year low prices.  This is why we need some earning guidance.  I was good with blindly buying quality brands that were suddenly 50% off.  Now I look at a stock only 15% off it's ATH and think hmmmmm, I wonder if they will struggle for five quarters with much higher debt?   That's not priced in anymore.  That greatly affects how much I am going to pay.  There will be more deals soon.

Yes. I have been waiting for more clarity on the "E" side of the P/E equation. That clarity will also end up moving the P.

Edited to add - The "E" information also plays in to most of my other metrics for determining DGI value, like payout ratio, and how realistic Chowder Numbers based on past 5yrs results are likely to be.