(03-18-2020, 11:50 AM)Otter Wrote: I am actually encouraged that we do not appear to be making the same mistakes of 1929. Flooding the private sector with "helicopter money" is a good play when the major risk is 20% unemployment (Mnuchin's comments to Republican Senators yesterday), demand shocks, and a deflationary spiral.

Steer the car away from the cliff with no guardrail, and get back to worrying about inflation later once it is even a plausible risk. The liquidity balance can always be shifted through tax policy and bond issuance in the future.

(03-18-2020, 11:50 AM)Otter Wrote: I am actually encouraged that we do not appear to be making the same mistakes of 1929. Flooding the private sector with "helicopter money" is a good play when the major risk is 20% unemployment (Mnuchin's comments to Republican Senators yesterday), demand shocks, and a deflationary spiral.

Steer the car away from the cliff with no guardrail, and get back to worrying about inflation later once it is even a plausible risk. The liquidity balance can always be shifted through tax policy and bond issuance in the future.

(03-18-2020, 11:38 AM)vbin Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 11:34 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 11:13 AM)saimash Wrote: Dont know if this has already been discussed here, but any idea why UTX is getting hamered... I'm thinking of putting a limit order around $65.1
Also thinking of putting a limit order on JETS @ 10.1 and hoping it would bite (although ive taken a beating in Boeing :-( )

My limit orders 100 shares of DIS @ 651. and 100 shares of AXP @ 75.1 just executed this morning.

Your thoughts ???

Threat of a recession, and they sell jet parts come to mind.  Not good for UTX.  They are about to merge with RTN and pick up significant defense contract exposure.

What are your thoughts and other folks on spending cuts on defence? I am eyeing GD, RTN, NOC, LMT but thinking that defense spending will be cut. We are coming out of Afghanistan and if Biden or Berny comes they will cut def spend. Healthcare will get a boost but don't see anything which has taken major beating in healthcare.

(03-18-2020, 11:53 AM)vbin Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 11:50 AM)Otter Wrote: I am actually encouraged that we do not appear to be making the same mistakes of 1929. Flooding the private sector with "helicopter money" is a good play when the major risk is 20% unemployment (Mnuchin's comments to Republican Senators yesterday), demand shocks, and a deflationary spiral.

Steer the car away from the cliff with no guardrail, and get back to worrying about inflation later once it is even a plausible risk. The liquidity balance can always be shifted through tax policy and bond issuance in the future.

Did not get what exactly you were trying to say here. Lol. Sorry.

(03-18-2020, 12:06 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I hope Powell has the guts to ease the rates backup when appropriate.  Hard to do your job when your boss is threatening to fire you publically.  The relationship is very distorted from how it's supposed to work.

(03-18-2020, 12:00 PM)Otter Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 11:53 AM)vbin Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 11:50 AM)Otter Wrote: I am actually encouraged that we do not appear to be making the same mistakes of 1929. Flooding the private sector with "helicopter money" is a good play when the major risk is 20% unemployment (Mnuchin's comments to Republican Senators yesterday), demand shocks, and a deflationary spiral.

Steer the car away from the cliff with no guardrail, and get back to worrying about inflation later once it is even a plausible risk. The liquidity balance can always be shifted through tax policy and bond issuance in the future.

Did not get what exactly you were trying to say here. Lol. Sorry.

When there is a serious risk of economic depression (unemployment over 15%), the key is to ensure that the private sector is as well-capitalized as possible to weather the storm. The government creates the money supply, and can expand it to prevent or mitigate the effects of deflation and to promote employment. Later, when the risk of deflation has abated, the government can suck excess liquidity back out of the system by raising taxes or issuing bonds, to avoid excessive inflation.