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What Did You Buy Today? - Printable Version

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What Did You Buy Today? - vbin - 03-06-2020

Had sold RTN couple days back and added back today. (Small position)

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 03-06-2020

Oxy should be the one to pickup the shale slack when the smaller get squeezed out and demand returns. What happens to our big oil share prices until then might not be pleasant for us longs. We will have to see if opec and Russia cut production of run the frackers off now. They have not been threatening that to my knowledge.

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - EricL - 03-07-2020

(03-06-2020, 08:40 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Oxy should be the one to pickup the shale slack when the smaller get squeezed out and demand returns. What happens to our big oil share prices until then might not be pleasant for us longs. We will have to see if opec and Russia cut production of run the frackers off now. They have not been threatening that to my knowledge.

I actually think OXY is in big trouble at <$40 oil. They took on tons of debt for the APC acquisition, and haven't been able to unload assets to repair the balance sheet like they'd hoped to because oil prices are so low. I haven't sold mine yet, and at this point I'll probably just hold it till the dividend is eventually cut. But if I was recommending to others in the current market, it would definitely be CVX or XOM first. EOG has a lower yield, but is also much stronger with the balance sheet.

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 03-07-2020

(03-07-2020, 09:23 AM)EricL Wrote:
(03-06-2020, 08:40 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Oxy should be the one to pickup the shale slack when the smaller get squeezed out and demand returns.  What happens to our big oil share prices until then might not be pleasant for us longs.  We will have to see if opec and Russia cut production of run the frackers off now.  They have not been threatening that to my knowledge.

I actually think OXY is in big trouble at <$40 oil. They took on tons of debt for the APC acquisition, and haven't been able to unload assets to repair the balance sheet like they'd hoped to because oil prices are so low. I haven't sold mine yet, and at this point I'll probably just hold it till the dividend is eventually cut. But if I was recommending to others in the current market, it would definitely be CVX or XOM first. EOG has a lower yield, but is also much stronger with the balance sheet.

We agree, but the forum is likely tired of "fenders the oil bear".  This will be the third time I've been crushed by oil since the mid 90s.  Each and every time, the popular forum of the day (S.A. this time) was swarming with oil bulls that just kept being wrong for years.  This is the time for very strong balance sheets.  Supply-demand is fundamentally flawed.  It's likely we may be facing a global slow down for a minimum of a few quarters.  Oil companies are hitting multi-year lows because it's actually rational.  They are completely at the mercy of OPEC+ Russia.  We'll see what they decide.  I'm not cheering for oil to get crushed.  I'll keep my BP shares.  They may be sub $20 soon but they'll survive.  I think OXY will survive too, but you won't like the share price and dividend cut if oil heads below $40 for long.  It stinks waiting years to maybe get back to even.  Every time oil shares spike, bag holders will be dumping. Only way you make money is if you get lucky enough to pick the bottom, whenever that is, then start leaving when every wildcatter on earth is borrowing money again. You'll know it's closer to the bottom when leveraged smaller oil companies start going BK. That happens every time. At some point low oil prices will help the rest of our ports, (and cheap gasoline prices). I guess that's the silver lining for many other sectors. That, and the majors will be able to pick up assets from banks and failing firms for 75% off if they actually need any.

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 03-07-2020

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3549550-saudis-launch-all-out-oil-price-war

If this is more than a one day show of force, it's exactly what I was afraid might happen. Offering oil to the US for a $7 discount. That takes us straight to the 30's. US shale will be collateral damage in a big way if it continues. Not that they have any desire to do so, but the Saudis can pump oil for not much over $10 a barrel and break even. Russia knows this well and if I had to guess, I'd bet they now have interest in a meeting with OPEC shortly.

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - EricL - 03-07-2020

Occidental, in May of 2019, bought Anadarko for $57 billion. Now Occidental is worth $25 billion.  This is one of the great wealth destruction deals of all time.

If oil drops to the $30s for any extended time, I think OXY will have to cut the dividend. CVX may end up getting APC in the end after all, and OXY along with it, for half the price they would have spent a year ago for APC alone.

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 03-07-2020

(03-07-2020, 04:37 PM)EricL Wrote: Occidental, in May of 2019, bought Anadarko for $57 billion. Now Occidental is worth $25 billion.  This is one of the great wealth destruction deals of all time.

If oil drops to the $30s for any extended time, I think OXY will have to cut the dividend. CVX may end up getting APC in the end after all, and OXY along with it, for half the price they would have spent a year ago for APC alone.
I left my CVX position when OXY topped their bid.  I was afraid they were going to up their offer.  I prefer they do their M&A at the bottom of the cycle.   The discounted asset sales are too frequent to do otherwise.  I ended up with BP, but it's hard to know which oil major is right.  The dividend payout rates are all over the place because the profits are so choppy year to year.  OXY debt may soon surpass their market Cap if it isn't there already.  The rest of the majors aren't exactly debt free.  The dividend cut rumors will be flying around soon.  It's just the oil patch and all you can really do is wait it out.  It's way too late to sell any of them.  Just have to look at them as CDs and tend to the rest of your portfolio until oil prices see their next catalyst.

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - kblake - 03-09-2020

Bought a few oil names in the pre-market. 25 shares each of RDS.A, CVX, EOG, and BP.

If they go down a lot more will be another 25 shares. OIL is dead I realize that. But I like to buy when blood is in the streets lol

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - stockguru - 03-09-2020

Bought some RDS.A, BP and AVGO

Looks like the market has been halted.

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - crimsonghost747 - 03-09-2020

Added to the following

Europe:
RDS.A
Airbus

Canada:
CM.to

USA:
LOW
BIP
LHX

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - fenders53 - 03-09-2020

My trigger finger is itchy lol. I think I will stick to what I have been doing the past few weeks. Spread it out among my highest quality favorites, and start with the ones I need to build a position in anyway. Getting warning messages from my broker my by orders exceed my available available balance. I'm sure that is not true, and my damned account page clearly states I am good to trade far more than the little trades I am attempting. Ugg, this isn't supposed to be Robinhood.

RE: What Did You Buy Today? - Otter - 03-09-2020

I think LDOS is at the top of my shopping list once we get to something that looks like a bottom.