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+--- Thread: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. (/showthread.php?tid=2138)
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - fenders53 - 01-10-2022
(01-09-2022, 09:01 PM)Scooterd Wrote: Great weekend for football,I pretty much only work weekends lately so I had to request the day off for Super Bowl. Buddy in the department next t me is a huge Packer fan so he'll sneak his phone with all his deluxe NFL streaming packages over and visit me every ten minutes if I miss any playoff games. I have this all planned out lol.
Was a bit miffed Aaron took a chance on getting injured to start in an inconsequential game against Det.
(What was GB even thinking)
As I'm Typing LV/LA going at it. Raiders off to a good start.
Steelers - Gotta hand it to Big Ben, as long as this game doesn't tie, Steelers are in.
They kept their playoff hopes alive by converting on a 4th and 9. !!! - Terrible towels gotta be celebrating in Steel Town tonight.
Not bad for an old man!!! Way to go Big Ben. Looks quite possible you'll have to postpone that retirement just a little bit longer.
NFC Playoffs all locked up
Eagles will face Tampa Bay
With 49ers win over Rams (Hell of a game) they will face the Cowboys
Cardinals will face the Rams.
- Scoot
I remember young Big Ben when I was deployed to the Middle East. We had some good sports TV in our mess hall and "Morale' tent. If I remember correctly he had some crazy good stats like 16-2 as a young starter? That number is pretty close anyway. In any event he was perfect for Coach Cower's smash mouth style of football. Like em or not the Steelers have been in the mix most all of my football watching life.
I guess this is our NFL thread and it seems appropriate. If you don't mind Scoot, throw up all the matchups in one post and a couple of us will probably throw our guesses each week just for fun.
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - fenders53 - 01-10-2022
Here s a more on topic prediction that isn't much of a prediction. The analysts and brokerage house are now scared. After years of just raising price targets, just to save face they are going to downgrade stocks everyday with conservative outlooks. That might have been a little more useful months ago as nothing has really changed what wasn't predicted six months ago. I can't even count how many of my holding had/have price targets 30% higher than today, and many of them still do but the adjustment is surely coming.
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - Scooterd - 01-10-2022
(01-10-2022, 08:33 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Here s a more on topic prediction that isn't much of a prediction. The analysts and brokerage house are now scared. After years of just raising price targets, just to save face they are going to downgrade stocks everyday with conservative outlooks. That might have been a little more useful months ago as nothing has really changed what wasn't predicted six months ago. I can't even count how many of my holding had/have price targets 30% higher than today, and many of them still do but the adjustment is surely coming.
IMHO for the most part - What others have said about forecasters and forecasting , Is the same I hold about market analysts. No one knows the future - No one.
“The foresight of financial experts was, as so often, a poor guide to the future.”John Kenneth Galbraith
Those who have knowledge don’t predict; those who predict don’t have knowledge - Lao Tzu
Forecasts create the mirage that the future is knowable- Peter Bernstein
I never think of the future – it comes soon enough -Albert Einstein
The future you shall know when it has come; before then forget it - Aeschylus
Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future - Warren Buffett.
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - Scooterd - 01-10-2022
Wow last game of the season was crazy - ended up going into Overtime and almost a tie. (which would have eliminated the Steelers and advanced both the chargers and the raiders into the last remaining play-offs spots. But an ill-timed decision by Chargers to call a time out allowed Raiders to rethink their strategy of possibility just taking a knee to end it. With 2 ticks left on the clock they went for it. Field goal Good, Raiders in, Steelers in, Chargers went home. Final score 35 / 33 (Terrible Towels must have been celebrating the no tie in Steel Town last night).
Bring on the playoffs - Here are the match-ups
AFC
Titans Get the bye in first week
7 seed Steelers @ 2 seed Kansas City
6 seed Pats @ 3 seed Buffalo
5 seed Raiders @ 4 seed Bengals
NFC
Green Bay gets the bye in first week
7 seed Eagles @ 2 seed Tampa Bay
6 seed San Fran @ 3 seed Cowboys
5 seed Cards @ 4 seed Rams
My first week picks (subject to change pre-game time if Covid updates comes into play)
AFC - KC eliminates Big Ben and the Steelers, Buffalo over the Pats, and Bengals beat the Raiders.
NFC - Tampa over Eagles, San Fran over Cowboys (wife nowhere around so I feel safe typing this
) Rams beat the Cards (Toss up).
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - fenders53 - 01-10-2022
(01-10-2022, 09:45 AM)Scooterd Wrote:There are a few times a year when I feel like I understand where sentiment will be in a month. Seems like I am right about 65% of the time if I am selective enough. That is actually good enough to trade for a few bucks and win more than I lose. Problem is I get bored and will push my luck and make a few bets when I am only about confident enough for a 45-55% win rate. And that is why my speculative bets are almost always very small, because it's just for fun and I might have to ride it out a long time to be back to even.(01-10-2022, 08:33 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Here s a more on topic prediction that isn't much of a prediction. The analysts and brokerage house are now scared. After years of just raising price targets, just to save face they are going to downgrade stocks everyday with conservative outlooks. That might have been a little more useful months ago as nothing has really changed what wasn't predicted six months ago. I can't even count how many of my holding had/have price targets 30% higher than today, and many of them still do but the adjustment is surely coming.
IMHO for the most part - What others have said about forecasters and forecasting , Is the same I hold about market analysts. No one knows the future - No one.
“The foresight of financial experts was, as so often, a poor guide to the future.”John Kenneth Galbraith
Those who have knowledge don’t predict; those who predict don’t have knowledge - Lao Tzu
Forecasts create the mirage that the future is knowable- Peter Bernstein
I never think of the future – it comes soon enough -Albert Einstein
The future you shall know when it has come; before then forget it - Aeschylus
Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future - Warren Buffett.
I'll catch myself up on injuries and consult my magic eight ball for football guesses very soon. We got you down for the Packers win it all lol.
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - Scooterd - 01-10-2022
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(01-10-2022, 10:05 AM)fenders53 Wrote: ........ We got you down for the Packers win it all lol.
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - fenders53 - 01-11-2022
Some pretty good games in round one. I won't be picking many upsets in round one. Seems like hometeams and division winners usually advance. Not always of course. It should be illegal to play outdoors in GB in January.
As far as stock analysts go I like to read the narratives as it can be helpful knowing risks. The price target game is ridiculous, but upgrades and downgrades can really move stocks sometimes. When a downgrade happens the villagers assemble with pitchforks and head for their forum echo chamber lol. Personally I find dissenting opinions useful. I don't mind being told I am missing some current data.
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - Scooterd - 01-14-2022
(01-11-2022, 02:05 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Personally I find dissenting opinions useful. I don't mind being told I am missing some current data.
Absolutely agree!!!
Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” — John Kenneth Galbraith
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - fenders53 - 01-14-2022
(01-14-2022, 12:23 PM)Scooterd Wrote:(01-11-2022, 02:05 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Personally I find dissenting opinions useful. I don't mind being told I am missing some current data.
Absolutely agree!!!
Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” — John Kenneth Galbraith
My first round predictions are coming in a few minutes. This is just for fun so how about these rules just to keep it interesting. 1 point for each pick in the wildcard round. 1 1/4 for divisional round, 1 1/2 for conference championships. 2 pts for SB. Here's the twist. You have to pick an one underdog the first two rounds. I got the round scenario right? If not tweak the rules and I am good with it.
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - fenders53 - 01-14-2022
Here are my picks. Bengals-Bills-Bucs-Cowboys-Chiefs-Cards.
I guess my upset pick is the Cards and that isn't too bold IMO, but I am in it to win it lol. It gets tougher next round when the wannabees are eliminated.
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - Scooterd - 01-15-2022
(01-14-2022, 01:21 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Here are my picks. Bengals-Bills-Bucs-Cowboys-Chiefs-Cards.
I guess my upset pick is the Cards and that isn't too bold IMO, but I am in it to win it lol. It gets tougher next round when the wannabees are eliminated.
so how about these rules.....I guess my upset pick is the Cards - fenders53 (Rams favored by 5)
>
Here are my 1st round picks. Bengals, Bills, Bucs, 49er's, Chiefs, Rams.
49er's are my upset (Dallas favored by 3)
My terms - You have to keep up with the point score values for us
There is usually an upset - please don't let it be Pat's over Bills !! Would really like to see Josh get his due, the team has worked so hard.
Let's play some football !!!
- Scoot.
RE: Top Ten 2022 Predictions. - fenders53 - 01-15-2022
(01-15-2022, 11:17 AM)Scooterd Wrote:Yeah I can track the points. We were desperate for entertainment when I was last deployed with the military and made some sports fun to pass the months. Making each round count a little more made it better. You'll probably agree the subsequent rounds are harder to pick and you don't eliminate yourself if the first round went bad. Otherwise somebody has a bad first round and hopelessly out of the hunt. That's no fun. Thanks for playing.(01-14-2022, 01:21 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Here are my picks. Bengals-Bills-Bucs-Cowboys-Chiefs-Cards.
I guess my upset pick is the Cards and that isn't too bold IMO, but I am in it to win it lol. It gets tougher next round when the wannabees are eliminated.
so how about these rules.....I guess my upset pick is the Cards - fenders53 (Rams favored by 5)
>
Here are my 1st round picks. Bengals, Bills, Bucs, 49er's, Chiefs, Rams.
49er's are my upset (Dallas favored by 3)
My terms - You have to keep up with the point score values for us
There is usually an upset - please don't let it be Pat's over Bills !!
Let's play some football !!!
- Scoot.
So you have to pick at least one underdog again next week, then that rule ends.
We have to get you a little bit interested in MLB. We chat about that quite a lot in a few months.