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+--- Thread: The Speculative Stocks.... (/showthread.php?tid=1897)
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 02-13-2020
(02-12-2020, 09:44 PM)vbin Wrote:(02-12-2020, 05:22 PM)fenders53 Wrote:It might be better to buy a stock when it's rising rather than falling. I started buying Teva at $21 all the way upto $6 with DCA to $10 and change. I am thinking to add more.(02-12-2020, 04:00 PM)vbin Wrote: TEVA is up 9% after results today. This baby is heading to $20 by year end. If Opioid sattlement comes, it will be $30. Bought some AMRX. Same story.I put TEVA on my watch list when you suggested it, but it went the wrong way. Congrats!
OLN is doing pretty well. I expect it to continue to trade in a range for now though. I think I may add to it on the next dip, and trade some around the position.
Agreed. Chasing 52 weeks lows is usually a bad plan with speculative stocks. Chasing highs is better if you are trading.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - NilesMike - 02-20-2020
(02-08-2020, 09:53 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I can't think of a fundamental catalyst that could cause it to move up in the short-term. Probably about as safe as a short ever gets with the bad chart and financials. Let us know how you do.
Flushing sound was earnings today. Couldn't even get out at my target.
Had to take extra $5 profit-LOL
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 02-21-2020
(02-20-2020, 10:09 PM)NilesMike Wrote:(02-08-2020, 09:53 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I can't think of a fundamental catalyst that could cause it to move up in the short-term. Probably about as safe as a short ever gets with the bad chart and financials. Let us know how you do.
Flushing sound was earnings today. Couldn't even get out at my target.
Had to take extra $5 profit-LOL
Good for you Mike! That Dividend cut for SIX was brutal. It was obvious something had to give, but that was rough. That stock is going lower for now.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - NilesMike - 02-22-2020
I've been looking at some seasonality stuff this morning and this jumped off my charts.
Since 1994, MCD 4th quarter has gained 10% or more 16 times. 5 times it took until all of Q1 to hit the mark and twice it took another Quarter. Only once did it not hit-2008.
Buying an ITM call and selling one 10% higher than current stock price would have net a 20 bagger while being in the market a fraction of the time. 10% bump returns 100% +/- on the option trade.
An outright purchase of MCD in 1994 would have also resulted in similar gains but with a 69% drawdown period over 4 years time. How many still hold through that is the question.
I'm trying to do the math of compounding your wins. I.E. first year 5K gain on 2.5 risked, next year 10K on 5, next year 20K on 10, 30 on 15 risk etc. I'm getting woozy.
I'll try to find other anomalies at different calendar period when I recover-LOL
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 02-22-2020
You sound stock giddy Mike.
I'm prepping my rental property for sale this week, then I'll have more time for your crazy random stock tricks lol. While I don't consider them particularly speculative, my latest success stories straddling a long position with puts and calls (sales only) is OLN, CBRL and LEVI. I am about 10-0 lately on options expiring worthless in both directions. I need to work a little harder at getting forced into more long shares next dip. They all have nice divs and someday they'll run on me. CBRL is surprisingly volatile for what it is.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - Otter - 02-24-2020
Those speculative SPY Puts I started buying about ten days ago are looking alright.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - Kerim - 02-24-2020
Sorry late to this thread -- my speculative play lately has been nibbling on STOK. They are developing a treatment that could really change my daughter's life. As if I don't have enough skin in the game already!
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 02-24-2020
(02-24-2020, 10:58 AM)Kerim Wrote: Sorry late to this thread -- my speculative play lately has been nibbling on STOK. They are developing a treatment that could really change my daughter's life. As if I don't have enough skin in the game already!
What are they testing Kerim? And best wishes to you and your daughter.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - NilesMike - 02-25-2020
Took another buck out of SIX 31.49-30.49 this morning, a good 10 minutes of work before work. LOL
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - Kerim - 02-25-2020
(02-24-2020, 05:36 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(02-24-2020, 10:58 AM)Kerim Wrote: Sorry late to this thread -- my speculative play lately has been nibbling on STOK. They are developing a treatment that could really change my daughter's life. As if I don't have enough skin in the game already!
What are they testing Kerim? And best wishes to you and your daughter.
Thank you!
I barely understand it, but at a hugely vague and likely inaccurate level: some genetic-based diseases occur where there is one good copy of the DNA and one mutated copy. In building the body's cells, both copies are read by the RNA, and the things built from the mutated copy don't work properly. (In my daughter's case (Dravet syndrome), it is the sodium ion channels in her nerve cells, which leads to seizures and developmental delays.) STOK has developed a way to replace the mutated bit in the RNA, so that much more of the resulting structures built the right way instead of the "mutated" way. (Here's a way better explanation.) They haven't tried it in humans yet, but it worked like gangbusters in mice, apparently. Phase I human trials are this year. A different company has successfully used a very similar technique in humans for a different condition.
Even if the tech works, I have no idea if this will turn out to be a good investment (there's lots of reasons to think it might not be). But of course I'm not betting big, and I kind of like the idea of partnering up with the company that might really help my kid.
RE: The Speculative Stocks.... - fenders53 - 02-27-2020
I'm not quite in this mindset just yet, but maybe next week. PLUG is on my watch list. May enter a metal mining stock soon as anything commodity is getting crushed. Leaning towards an industrial metal. Copper while it's beat down perhaps? I'm not a gold bug as it's way too manipulated IMO. I'm already into a speculative chemical stock (OLN). I really enjoy trading it. Both long and options keeps working out. I have a limit order in on FCX.
The Speculative Stocks.... - vbin - 02-29-2020
Has anyone looked into WES and BKR? Both looks attractive. Wes is low becouse OXY is forced into selling assets and WES is one it might sell and BKR due to GE. 2-3 years from now there is a good chance they might be trading at double prices from here. Buffet has a good position he initiated in OXY with Charlie's approval.
I am thinking to initiate a full position in all 3.