(09-13-2019, 06:08 PM)stockguru Wrote: I would never buy MMM. They are no longer a growth company. And as long as tariffs are a threat, they will continue to suffer and hit new lows. I don’t need a graph to tell me that lol. Yes it’s cone off the lows but that won’t last. Just a rotation going on right now.

Thanks for the info. I will have to check them out.  

I sill say MCD hits $230 by years end.

(09-13-2019, 06:12 PM)stockguru Wrote: Here’s another example. A lot of you bought ABBV and GILD $10-15 higher then where there trading at now. I heard there so cheap? Trading at historic low PE. That didn’t work out too well lol. Just saying you never know. Sometimes it’s a crap shoot.

(09-13-2019, 06:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Agree MCD is way overvalued.  Rode it up for 40 quick points but pigs get slaughtered.  I'll wait for re-entry.  I only had to wait 15 years for a couple stocks to get me back to even.  It's going to be more like 20+ for INTC and CSCO.  Sure I sell some stocks too early, or never buy them.  I'll take that over avoiding port devastation.   It only has to happen to you once.   MMM is a good recent example of a stock that could take a decade to get back to even.  KMI is loved here.  Five years later and it is still under 50% of it's last peak, and we just had a couple decent oil price years that may or may not be ending for awhile.  Paying a huge premium for a mature company will get you burned.  It's not 1970 anymore for stocks like MCD and DIS.  You can't just pay any price.

(09-13-2019, 07:22 PM)Otter Wrote: I really like this recent article by Chuck Carnevale, explaining his philosophy on value at time of purchase. He is far more eloquent and a more effective writer when it comes to conveying these concepts than I could ever hope to be:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4290081-time-market-value-investing-market-timing

Short-term fluctuations in price don’t really concern me on a long-term time horizon. I will never buy any stock at the absolute bottom. That’s market timing. I can’t do that. All I can do is decide if value is fair or better at the time of purchase.

A stock that is 30% above its long-term average P/E, with a current price 7% higher than where it should be with a historically average P/E in more than two years carries too high of a value risk for how I analyze purchases. When that stock is forecast to grow earnings by only single-digit percentages over the next two years, that coupled with the current low yield indicates to me that the income stream I will be purchasing is not the best use of capital I can make. If MCD had a current yield like T, or was forecasting 25% annualized growth, my opinion would certainly change.

(09-13-2019, 07:50 PM)stockguru Wrote:

(09-13-2019, 07:22 PM)Otter Wrote: I really like this recent article by Chuck Carnevale, explaining his philosophy on value at time of purchase. He is far more eloquent and a more effective writer when it comes to conveying these concepts than I could ever hope to be:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4290081-time-market-value-investing-market-timing

Short-term fluctuations in price don’t really concern me on a long-term time horizon. I will never buy any stock at the absolute bottom. That’s market timing. I can’t do that. All I can do is decide if value is fair or better at the time of purchase.

A stock that is 30% above its long-term average P/E, with a current price 7% higher than where it should be with a historically average P/E in more than two years carries too high of a value risk for how I analyze purchases. When that stock is forecast to grow earnings by only single-digit percentages over the next two years, that coupled with the current low yield indicates to me that the income stream I will be purchasing is not the best use of capital I can make. If MCD had a current yield like T, or was forecasting 25% annualized growth, my opinion would certainly change.

T and MCD don’t belong in the same sentence. How dare you lol. T has way too much debt and is at the sane price it was 5 years ago. It has 6% yield for a reason. Everyone has there own opinion. It’s what  makes a market. For every seller there’s a buyer. MCD has had a lot of funds buy in recently even above $220. So while some say it’s over valued, others see opportunity 

I wish I bought AMZN and NFLX 5 years ago when they were over valued. Heck they don’t even have a PE lol.

(09-13-2019, 10:06 PM)stockguru Wrote: Lol I don’t hold loser stocks that long lol. I won’t invest in INTC because that business is too up and down.  Slower PC sales more so then not,  AMD new chips also put a damper on them. We all have losers. I don’t have the patience to wait it out once a company disappoints me One too many times. Good example I had bought IBM around $190 a while back. The company changed and I didn’t like  the CEO and her acquisitions. So I sold at $176 and it still hasn’t recovered.