(08-15-2019, 10:27 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(08-15-2019, 11:28 AM)vbin Wrote: In my opinion whatever you buy, keep enough powder for later, high probability for things to get ugly post 2020 and as others mentioned high probability for oil to drop further, I bought bunch in XOM based on buy and hold strategy, but I could have got it $3-$4 cheaper per stock. That can make a difference in long run. We never know if market is going to go up or down but atleast now I knew it aswll that there is a good probability that oil will fall further and conditions are volatile.

Of course it makes a huge difference if we can enter all our stocks $3-4 cheaper.  That implies we can time the macro market and that requires some luck.  I bought XOM about $8 ago so I'm not so smart, but I am OK with holding it, dividends and covered calls.  I'd be a helluva lot happier if I started doing that today with a better entry.  I win some I lose some.  Until a month ago I thought there would be a trade deal.  

Easier to type than actually do, but when the market is skittish for good reason, I try to evaluate the cost of waiting when a stock is falling.  Is it more likely to trend downward than it is to launch higher so fast I can't get in next week?  Most of the stocks on my watch list are likely to go sideways at best.  A one day stock drop you can't miss out on is actually pretty rare.  Being patient is tough but most sectors have a great deal of uncertainty right now.  We'll find some true bargains if things don't dramatically improve.   

It's amazing how the market can easily move 2-3% in a day, on news that can be easily reversed tomorrow with a not so well thought out comment from a world leader or the FED.

(08-17-2019, 09:41 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: I've been saying the market is overvalued since maybe 2013 or something like that. Was I wrong? Maybe I was, maybe I wasn't, but we sure did climb waaaay higher from there.

I'm just glad I've stuck with my "invest X amount monthly. Every month, no matter what" strategy because apparently I'm not perfect at timing the market. Sometimes I buy stocks that I could have gotten cheaper a month ago, and sometimes it turns out that the stocks I bought could be had cheaper a month later. All I know is that dividend pile keeps growing month after month.

To remain within the point of this thread.
Sold (yes, SOLD!) a small part of my AMAT holdings.

(08-17-2019, 11:33 AM)rayray Wrote: I stayed 100% invested during the 2008/09 meltdown--invested before, during and after and it was not the end of the world, in fact, I've done better then all my friends and family that sold or stayed on the sidelines. I know a couple of guys who stayed on the sidelines for 5 to 7 years, getting back into the market 2013 to 2014.

I've been investing in the stock market for almost 25 years and I've experienced 40% plus drop in my total investment portfolio...wait...wait...wait...wait for it...ONCE. My first investments were bonds and CD's that my grandparents got me into with grass cutting, Christmas and birthday money when I was very young (13/14 years old) and let me tell you guys something, even with a 50% drop in total net worth, bonds and CD's have not been able to hold a candlestick to quality stock investments (10% plus CD returns just ain't going to happen anytime soon--not in this rate environment). But who wants to pay high mortgage interest rates anymore? People would flip the freak out if mortgage rates go up to 8 plus percent. What about the late 70's and early 80's? Those mortgage rates? For get it, people would stroke out. Banks and the such weren't giving good returns on CD's out of the goodness of their hearts. Banks can keep their free toasters! It's a give and take world. My point is that my grandparents should have let me buy Microsoft and or Walmart like I wanted instead of bonds and CD's that they directed me towards because of safety concerns.

I might come across as bull, I'm not...I know the market goes up and goes down--it happens. As we speak, I have some investments that are down 25% plus, I've had dividend cuts (big ones) in the last 10 years...but one important aspect, even with some big dividend cuts my overall dividend income has gone up every year.  My strategy is "Steady as she goes..." and don't get sidetracked by the noise. Politics is noise, the media is noise (and yes those financial shows and articles are noise too), anyone telling you, arguing until they're blue in the face to sell are full of noise out the ying yang. Know yourself as an investor then act accordingly. From that first bond/CD to the last stock purchase I made, I know my investor-self, after the course of 35 years, extremely well. I know what I'm going to do and what I'm not going to do as an investor. It did not happen overnight, it did not happen in a decade, it took a lifetime.

Every so often I'll look at my portfolio and think should I sell this one, should I trim this one...eh? When I crunch the numbers, really crunch the numbers I usually come to the conclusion I'm not selling--it does happen though, in rare occasions. Why? Cause I don't invest in something that I want to sell, I'm not buying something just so I can turn around and sell it. It takes too much time in order for me to buy that I don't want to waist it. Some of my best choices I made were NOT investing in a particular company, some of the best financial advice I took was NOT doing what they were telling me to do. Sometimes the best thing to do is NOTHING--and I'm really good at doing nothing, actually, an expert--ask my wife! When evaluating a stock, assuming the numbers are not a lie, over the long term, even through the bad times, how can one lose?

invest in a QUALITY company
at a REASONABLE price
look for that DIVIDEND
and NEVER sell

Remember, it's not a stock market it's a market of stocks, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon.

(08-17-2019, 08:54 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I am good with most of that until you say NEVER SELL.  That means you never ever make a bad decision.  Do you really believe they Ray?  You are either think you are the most amazing investor to ever walk the earth, or a little bit delusional and locked into a strategy.  I refer you back to Buffet and Munger.  "Don't lose money".  I know that quote is tongue in cheek, so I interpret it to mean "don't lose money when you should know better".   There is patience, and there is stubbornly riding a dumpster fire into the ground and losing it all because you are too stubborn to admit you made a mistake.  Patience doesn't cure all bad decisions.

(08-18-2019, 11:09 AM)divmenow Wrote: I don't worry about where the market is headed or what prices they are trading at. It all comes down to yield, valuation, debt, credit rating and dividend history (continued raises). The only time I sell is if a merger happens or the valuations get way out of control.

If the market gives you a good opportunity in a name you like or already own, take advantage of it.  That's the rule I follow and stick by it. There is no fancy talk here, nor do I need to write a book to get my point across haha

And I see a bunch of names I can invest in right now and be well rewarded 5-10 years down the road.

ABBV, PFE, SPG, IBM and PM. All names with a yield of over 4% that look very attractive at current levels.