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+--- Thread: On Time in the Market (/showthread.php?tid=2062)
RE: On Time in the Market - cemanuel - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 09:11 AM)fenders53 Wrote: When you figure out penny stocks launch a course on YouTube and make some real money. I will take a pass on trying to out con the con man.
Never said I'd figured them out. I do think I can make money on them. No harder than technical trading, easier in some ways. May do some of that too. But those discussions are for a different board.
Penny stocks are no different from any other investing instrument. You have to answer the three key questions:
1) What is/are my goal(s)?
2) Is this the right sort of tool to help me reach my goal(s)?
3) Can I learn enough, spend enough time, etc., to be able to use the tool effectively?
Insert any investment class into the equation. Run-down houses, fine art, cryptocurrency, etc. Folks on this board - including myself - have chosen investing in dividend-payers; one of the, IMO, lower risk options.
PS: I like to argue and sometimes argue vigorously. Doesn't mean I'm mad or anything. It would be one boring world if we all agreed with each other all the time.
RE: On Time in the Market - fenders53 - 12-12-2021
I just don't like how they trade. Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day. If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.
RE: On Time in the Market - cemanuel - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 10:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just don't like how they trade. Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day. If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.
Not 100%. They have characteristics and you can look for them. And the fact that I had good luck with six doesn't guarantee I'll have the same with more. And to be VERY clear, for something like this, I'll use money I can afford to lose, if I do it. It does fly opposite everything that I do with buying dividend-payers.
RE: On Time in the Market - rnsmth - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 11:15 AM)cemanuel Wrote:(12-12-2021, 10:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just don't like how they trade. Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day. If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.
Not 100%. They have characteristics and you can look for them. And the fact that I had good luck with six doesn't guarantee I'll have the same with more. And to be VERY clear, for something like this, I'll use money I can afford to lose, if I do it. It does fly opposite everything that I do with buying dividend-payers.
That may or may not be. Could not prove it either way by me.
Here is the thing, I do not need to do it. I do not want to spend the the time trying to learn that obscure corner of the markets. I simply see not reason, happily retired for 8 years at the age of 70, to go there.
Increasing dividend cash flow by at least 10% each year, that is where I am at.
RE: On Time in the Market - fenders53 - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 11:15 AM)cemanuel Wrote:I hope you are enjoying this exchange too. We'll have to disagree whether it's 100% blind luck or not. Keep good records and let us know how you did.(12-12-2021, 10:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just don't like how they trade. Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day. If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.
Not 100%. They have characteristics and you can look for them. And the fact that I had good luck with six doesn't guarantee I'll have the same with more. And to be VERY clear, for something like this, I'll use money I can afford to lose, if I do it. It does fly opposite everything that I do with buying dividend-payers.
RE: On Time in the Market - fenders53 - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 11:50 AM)rnsmth Wrote:There is no math to analyze with almost all penny stocks. It's a dilution game and most of the "companies" are a couple of people that run a shell company. They often have fraud lawsuits in their past if you research them just a little. The space is full of scamsters. There is generally no product being produced. It's usually just a website and some conceptual product ideas illustrated. There is no real need to research. Pick some tickers and hope they get hyped while you are watching so you can bail and leave the bag holders behind. That really is how almost all of them roll. A roulette wheel is more appealing to me because the roulette wheel involves no humans purposely trying to steal from me. The wheel is just math.(12-12-2021, 11:15 AM)cemanuel Wrote:(12-12-2021, 10:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just don't like how they trade. Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day. If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.
Not 100%. They have characteristics and you can look for them. And the fact that I had good luck with six doesn't guarantee I'll have the same with more. And to be VERY clear, for something like this, I'll use money I can afford to lose, if I do it. It does fly opposite everything that I do with buying dividend-payers.
That may or may not be. Could not prove it either way by me.
Here is the thing, I do not need to do it. I do not want to spend the the time trying to learn that obscure corner of the markets. I simply see not reason, happily retired for 8 years at the age of 70, to go there.
Increasing dividend cash flow by at least 10% each year, that is where I am at.
RE: On Time in the Market - cemanuel - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 11:50 AM)rnsmth Wrote:(12-12-2021, 11:15 AM)cemanuel Wrote:(12-12-2021, 10:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just don't like how they trade. Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day. If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.
Not 100%. They have characteristics and you can look for them. And the fact that I had good luck with six doesn't guarantee I'll have the same with more. And to be VERY clear, for something like this, I'll use money I can afford to lose, if I do it. It does fly opposite everything that I do with buying dividend-payers.
That may or may not be. Could not prove it either way by me.
Here is the thing, I do not need to do it. I do not want to spend the the time trying to learn that obscure corner of the markets. I simply see not reason, happily retired for 8 years at the age of 70, to go there.
Increasing dividend cash flow by at least 10% each year, that is where I am at.
I don't need to do it either. But I'm fortunate enough to have a large pool of funds that I don't need to live on. Heck, I've talked to people about establishing a franchise in The Basketball League: https://thebasketballleague.net/ Anyway, if I do this, it'll be as much for entertainment as anything though I do expect to make money on it. And yes, I'll post on it, if I do it - here it'll be in the off-topic Board.
RE: On Time in the Market - cemanuel - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 12:10 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(12-12-2021, 11:50 AM)rnsmth Wrote:There is no math to analyze with almost all penny stocks. It's a dilution game and most of the "companies" are a couple of people that run a shell company. They often have fraud lawsuits in their past if you research them just a little. The space is full of scamsters. There is generally no product being produced. It's usually just a website and some conceptual product ideas illustrated. There is no real need to research. Pick some tickers and hope they get hyped while you are watching so you can bail and leave the bag holders behind. That really is how almost all of them roll. A roulette wheel is more appealing to me because the roulette wheel involves no humans purposely trying to steal from me. The wheel is just math.(12-12-2021, 11:15 AM)cemanuel Wrote:(12-12-2021, 10:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just don't like how they trade. Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day. If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.
Not 100%. They have characteristics and you can look for them. And the fact that I had good luck with six doesn't guarantee I'll have the same with more. And to be VERY clear, for something like this, I'll use money I can afford to lose, if I do it. It does fly opposite everything that I do with buying dividend-payers.
That may or may not be. Could not prove it either way by me.
Here is the thing, I do not need to do it. I do not want to spend the the time trying to learn that obscure corner of the markets. I simply see not reason, happily retired for 8 years at the age of 70, to go there.
Increasing dividend cash flow by at least 10% each year, that is where I am at.
Most of the above is not true in my experience. There are some but those are easily identified. Technically I haven't done a mathematical analysis but finding legit companies was not hard when I did it. Most have, for example, a single pharma product in early stage testing or 100 acres of explorative property for some thing or other, NG or oil. There is math to analyze, just very different math from anything you'd use for dividend, or even larger cap growth stocks. And one of those is the length of time the company has been in existence. They have to file the same reports with the FTC as any other publicly traded company. You have to read them.
Look for things like regular, massive stock dilution, crazy management actions over time, asset lists that never change, news announcement with no basis in reality, there's more - I haven't done anything with them in 3 years. Certainly there are scams. But they're not hard to avoid. Lots of signs. For example, with a startup pharma - have they filed a patent? If yes, they are probably legit. If no, I'd stay away. Make sure the company has taken at least that one next step involving some time and money toward whatever it is they are supposed to be doing.
RE: On Time in the Market - fenders53 - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 12:41 PM)cemanuel Wrote:I really think you should consider learning to buy options and feed that gambling bone. I use 1/3rd of my portfolio and make a few thousand dollars on the other side of that trade almost every month. So why would I suggest this? Because the "other team" is making bets (usually small) on real companies and there are definitely times when they win, and many other times when they can break about even if they know when to bail and place a new bet. The market throws curves for sure, but you literally get to pick your entry odds. It's pure math based on the current market. I consistently hit singles (which is exactly why I do it) while they are normally trying to hit doubles and triples. Trying to hit HRs on the buy side is definitely popular but the odds are much tougher. We have a forum for this and several of us are knowledgeable.(12-12-2021, 11:50 AM)rnsmth Wrote:(12-12-2021, 11:15 AM)cemanuel Wrote:(12-12-2021, 10:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just don't like how they trade. Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day. If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.
Not 100%. They have characteristics and you can look for them. And the fact that I had good luck with six doesn't guarantee I'll have the same with more. And to be VERY clear, for something like this, I'll use money I can afford to lose, if I do it. It does fly opposite everything that I do with buying dividend-payers.
That may or may not be. Could not prove it either way by me.
Here is the thing, I do not need to do it. I do not want to spend the the time trying to learn that obscure corner of the markets. I simply see not reason, happily retired for 8 years at the age of 70, to go there.
Increasing dividend cash flow by at least 10% each year, that is where I am at.
I don't need to do it either. But I'm fortunate enough to have a large pool of funds that I don't need to live on. Heck, I've talked to people about establishing a franchise in The Basketball League: https://thebasketballleague.net/ Anyway, if I do this, it'll be as much for entertainment as anything though I do expect to make money on it. And yes, I'll post on it, if I do it - here it'll be in the off-topic Board.
RE: On Time in the Market - cemanuel - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 01:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(12-12-2021, 12:41 PM)cemanuel Wrote:I really think you should consider learning to buy options and feed that gambling bone. I use 1/3rd of my portfolio and make a few thousand dollars on the other side of that trade almost every month. So why would I suggest this? Because the "other team" is making bets (usually small) on real companies and there are definitely times when they win, and many other times when they can break about even if they know when to bail and place a new bet. The market throws curves for sure, but you literally get to pick your entry odds. It's pure math based on the current market. I consistently hit singles (which is exactly why I do it) while they are normally trying to hit doubles and triples. Trying to hit HRs on the buy side is definitely popular but the odds are much tougher. We have a forum for this and several of us are knowledgeable.(12-12-2021, 11:50 AM)rnsmth Wrote:(12-12-2021, 11:15 AM)cemanuel Wrote:(12-12-2021, 10:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I just don't like how they trade. Market makers steal from the players at a level I have experienced nowhere else, every single day. If they actually had fundamentals I could analyze I'd enjoy them because it wouldn't be 100% blind luck if I win or lose, with the odds heavily against me.
Not 100%. They have characteristics and you can look for them. And the fact that I had good luck with six doesn't guarantee I'll have the same with more. And to be VERY clear, for something like this, I'll use money I can afford to lose, if I do it. It does fly opposite everything that I do with buying dividend-payers.
That may or may not be. Could not prove it either way by me.
Here is the thing, I do not need to do it. I do not want to spend the the time trying to learn that obscure corner of the markets. I simply see not reason, happily retired for 8 years at the age of 70, to go there.
Increasing dividend cash flow by at least 10% each year, that is where I am at.
I don't need to do it either. But I'm fortunate enough to have a large pool of funds that I don't need to live on. Heck, I've talked to people about establishing a franchise in The Basketball League: https://thebasketballleague.net/ Anyway, if I do this, it'll be as much for entertainment as anything though I do expect to make money on it. And yes, I'll post on it, if I do it - here it'll be in the off-topic Board.
Options are on the table. Traded them all the time in commodities, grain, until about 5 years ago. Stocks work a little different though - the types/classes are the same but the details of being successful are different. Though again, it would be to play around with something. I don't need the money. But I don't need to throw it away either. Fortunately there are plenty of ways to practice before putting real money in.
RE: On Time in the Market - fenders53 - 12-12-2021
I will listen but I don't hear your logic for penny stocks yet. I insist on some small amount of control of my destiny. It will be a tough hill to climb to convince me you have even a tiny amount in penny stocks.
If you go the penny stock route, please start a thread and post every entry trades immediately after you do it, then your exit. It would be a useful lesson for all that read it whether you win or lose.
Why did you stop trading commodity options five years ago? I assume you were on the buy side.
RE: On Time in the Market - cemanuel - 12-12-2021
(12-12-2021, 01:26 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I will listen but I don't hear your logic for penny stocks yet. I insist on some small amount of control of my destiny. It will be a tough hill to climb to convince me you have even a tiny amount in penny stocks.
If you go the penny stock route, please start a thread and post every entry trades immediately after you do it, then your exit. It would be a useful lesson for all that read it whether you win or lose.
Why did you stop trading commodity options five years ago? I assume you were on the buy side.
I decided to put my money into stocks. Did make one move in spring, 2018. The China tariffs were too big of an opportunity to ignore. Just wish I'd gotten the check from a property sale a bit earlier. Only had the money to buy 3 soybean puts.
"It will be a tough hill to climb to convince me you have even a tiny amount in penny stocks."
You wrote this as if I have a reason to care - why would I care one iota what you think? I also already said I'd be happy to start a thread in the off-topic board. If I do it.
And enough on this, at least here. Penny stocks and options are anything BUT about time in the market.