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+--- Thread: Decision while the trend is going down (/showthread.php?tid=1910)
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RE: Decision while the trend is going down - fenders53 - 03-22-2020
Thanks, I will check it out. I can use all the resources I can get. This is the worst I've been beaten up in 20 years. 20% of my port is down bad. I always average down at least a little, and it very rarely works to be honest. At times like these I tend to get into a different mode. "Get out of denial and into quality". Sometime the thesis just changes and you have to admit you are now wrong. When I have a stock down 50% and fear any chance of BK, I look for a higher quality stock that is down and flip. Too late to go in cash with these positions. A highly quality stock that may only be down 30-40% is often the better path to take. Nothing scarier than holding junk when the future is unclear. I've rode a few stocks down to BK because I was in deep denial. (Mostly oil stocks and a few techs).
RE: Decision while the trend is going down - dmonte - 03-25-2020
The world changed everyday recently, but it seems most of major economics have been in locked down mode. And a deterministic signal to me is that the Fed push out unlimited QE. My pessimistic view changed and feel things perhaps won't get worse from here by more severe events.
Therefore I have re-entered the market with 30% of my cash holding today, those will become my baseline of the new portfolio.
RE: Decision while the trend is going down - fenders53 - 03-25-2020
(03-25-2020, 10:38 AM)dmonte Wrote: The world changed everyday recently, but it seems most of major economics have been in locked down mode. And a deterministic signal to me is that the Fed push out unlimited QE. My pessimistic view changed and feel things perhaps won't get worse from here by more severe events.
Therefore I have re-entered the market with 30% of my cash holding today, those will become my baseline of the new portfolio.
Going forward add on the ugly dip days and not the up days. The market is historically oversold and this is a typical bull trap. Could last a few more days but I doubt it. Go slow but be ready to buy the fear. I hope you just nibble and be very selective as there is no hurry. Earnings reports are going to be horrible for a couple quarters. PM me if you like.
RE: Decision while the trend is going down - dmonte - 03-27-2020
(03-25-2020, 11:09 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(03-25-2020, 10:38 AM)dmonte Wrote: The world changed everyday recently, but it seems most of major economics have been in locked down mode. And a deterministic signal to me is that the Fed push out unlimited QE. My pessimistic view changed and feel things perhaps won't get worse from here by more severe events.
Therefore I have re-entered the market with 30% of my cash holding today, those will become my baseline of the new portfolio.
Going forward add on the ugly dip days and not the up days. The market is historically oversold and this is a typical bull trap. Could last a few more days but I doubt it. Go slow but be ready to buy the fear. I hope you just nibble and be very selective as there is no hurry. Earnings reports are going to be horrible for a couple quarters. PM me if you like.
Good evening. Finally called it another busy week.
Picked up some companies not for dividend but for potential, for example, MSFT, FB, DIS ...etc. since I do both DG and Growth in my profile and I am more familiar with those industries.
But I did sold most of them again on Thursday for a little profit due to USA peak the world. Too hard, I thought there might be no more news worst than what happened earlier this month, so did feel its good time start to deploy DCA for value or growth stocks (by the market situation now it is hard to cut a lines between those two types ).
Earning report will be bad for most of companies in the world in the coming 2 quarters, so I guess that probably not going to make huge impact on individual companies price (unless airlines ...etc). But dividend cut certainly will happen to most of companies in the next quarter or two. Therefore I do not plan to buy any dividend stocks in 1 or 2 quarters before things settled.
RE: Decision while the trend is going down - fenders53 - 03-28-2020
Sounds like a plan. There will be some dividends cuts for sure. We all have to set our own course through this. Mine evolves as we get new fats. I am weighted defensively with UTEs, Pharma and medical devices, and defense stocks. I even bought a few SPY puts this week for a partial hedge. My port volatility is now cut in half. It's easier to manage. I intend to add the growth stocks you just did when I believe we have reached bottom, or close enough. I doubt they will drop more than another 20%, but that is just a guess at this point.