(11-15-2018, 02:55 PM)divmenow Wrote: T back under $30 again. Stock sucks lol

(11-15-2018, 09:47 PM)vbin Wrote: Added XOM. Looking forward to add NVDA tomorrow wit it stays below $170

(11-15-2018, 08:36 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Not sure T is on my 10 year hold list but they don't worry me too much right now.  I'm confident they "get it" that debt has to be addressed.   Eric regards it as a utility and I think he's not off base.  But we got a chance it runs 20%+ if they get it  mostly right and the DIV is ridiculous while we wait.   I have good stocks getting beat up worse than T.  HD comes to mind.  Down like $35 and absolutely executing.  Just reported earning and YOY growth rates and same store sales look amazing for a huge retailer.  Mister market don't care but he'll notice some week soon IMO.  After this beating I can't think of a much better retailer to own through upcoming holiday season.

(11-16-2018, 11:03 AM)Otter Wrote:

(11-15-2018, 08:36 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Not sure T is on my 10 year hold list but they don't worry me too much right now.  I'm confident they "get it" that debt has to be addressed.   Eric regards it as a utility and I think he's not off base.  But we got a chance it runs 20%+ if they get it  mostly right and the DIV is ridiculous while we wait.   I have good stocks getting beat up worse than T.  HD comes to mind.  Down like $35 and absolutely executing.  Just reported earning and YOY growth rates and same store sales look amazing for a huge retailer.  Mister market don't care but he'll notice some week soon IMO.  After this beating I can't think of a much better retailer to own through upcoming holiday season.

I have a hard time buying consumer discretionary at the moment. Maybe consumer confidence and spending stays at highs, but I just get uneasy thinking that we are at the top part of the cycle for those stocks. They tend to unwind really fast/steep to the downside once market sentiment shifts. Was happy buying TGT last summer in the 50s, but only view it as a hold now. WMT looks way overpriced at the moment. 

Have quite a few on my shopping list for the next down-cycle, when all the headlines are doom & gloom, speculating that Amazon will put all other retailers out of business, or that consumers are tapped out and no one will ever shop or be extended credit again. Once those single-digit trailing P/E ratios arrive, I'm in. If everything goes to zero like the clickbait headlines during those times like to suggest, I figure I'll have bigger problems than just my portfolio.

(11-15-2018, 09:47 PM)vbin Wrote: Added XOM. Looking forward to add NVDA tomorrow wit it stays below $170

(11-16-2018, 10:13 AM)EricL Wrote:

(11-15-2018, 09:47 PM)vbin Wrote: Added XOM. Looking forward to add NVDA tomorrow wit it stays below $170

You've got your wish. NVDA is at $167 right now!

(11-16-2018, 01:52 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-16-2018, 11:03 AM)Otter Wrote:

(11-15-2018, 08:36 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Not sure T is on my 10 year hold list but they don't worry me too much right now.  I'm confident they "get it" that debt has to be addressed.   Eric regards it as a utility and I think he's not off base.  But we got a chance it runs 20%+ if they get it  mostly right and the DIV is ridiculous while we wait.   I have good stocks getting beat up worse than T.  HD comes to mind.  Down like $35 and absolutely executing.  Just reported earning and YOY growth rates and same store sales look amazing for a huge retailer.  Mister market don't care but he'll notice some week soon IMO.  After this beating I can't think of a much better retailer to own through upcoming holiday season.

I have a hard time buying consumer discretionary at the moment. Maybe consumer confidence and spending stays at highs, but I just get uneasy thinking that we are at the top part of the cycle for those stocks. They tend to unwind really fast/steep to the downside once market sentiment shifts. Was happy buying TGT last summer in the 50s, but only view it as a hold now. WMT looks way overpriced at the moment. 

Have quite a few on my shopping list for the next down-cycle, when all the headlines are doom & gloom, speculating that Amazon will put all other retailers out of business, or that consumers are tapped out and no one will ever shop or be extended credit again. Once those single-digit trailing P/E ratios arrive, I'm in. If everything goes to zero like the clickbait headlines during those times like to suggest, I figure I'll have bigger problems than just my portfolio.

I have a hard time making a large purchase of almost anything right now.  Most everything is tough to justify unless you believe there is no chance of a recession.  We are too far into the cycle to rationally believe that.  I am old enough that I don't care to wait five years just to break even on a new purchase.  I'd love to hide all my equity money in utilities  and Med stocks.  It's just lunacy to think  you are somehow safe in a stock with slow growth and a PE of 25-30.  A few quality utilities are there now.  The consumer non-durables aren't too far behind in over-valuation. 

On another subject is it OK to rant at analysts and  brokerage houses?  BofA Merrill Lynch downgrades Home Depot today.  Where were  they about 40 points ago 90 days ago when they had a buy on it?  Do people pay them for this idiotic advice?   The answer is yes unfortunately.   

I have plenty of money riding on the market but I will keep a lot of cash on hand.  Who knows when the real sale on equities is coming, but it's coming some year soon.  It's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense currently.  None of it matters when you are 30.  Just find good companies for the very longterm and hold on.

(11-16-2018, 02:36 PM)Otter Wrote:

(11-16-2018, 01:52 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-16-2018, 11:03 AM)Otter Wrote:

(11-15-2018, 08:36 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Not sure T is on my 10 year hold list but they don't worry me too much right now.  I'm confident they "get it" that debt has to be addressed.   Eric regards it as a utility and I think he's not off base.  But we got a chance it runs 20%+ if they get it  mostly right and the DIV is ridiculous while we wait.   I have good stocks getting beat up worse than T.  HD comes to mind.  Down like $35 and absolutely executing.  Just reported earning and YOY growth rates and same store sales look amazing for a huge retailer.  Mister market don't care but he'll notice some week soon IMO.  After this beating I can't think of a much better retailer to own through upcoming holiday season.

I have a hard time buying consumer discretionary at the moment. Maybe consumer confidence and spending stays at highs, but I just get uneasy thinking that we are at the top part of the cycle for those stocks. They tend to unwind really fast/steep to the downside once market sentiment shifts. Was happy buying TGT last summer in the 50s, but only view it as a hold now. WMT looks way overpriced at the moment. 

Have quite a few on my shopping list for the next down-cycle, when all the headlines are doom & gloom, speculating that Amazon will put all other retailers out of business, or that consumers are tapped out and no one will ever shop or be extended credit again. Once those single-digit trailing P/E ratios arrive, I'm in. If everything goes to zero like the clickbait headlines during those times like to suggest, I figure I'll have bigger problems than just my portfolio.

I have a hard time making a large purchase of almost anything right now.  Most everything is tough to justify unless you believe there is no chance of a recession.  We are too far into the cycle to rationally believe that.  I am old enough that I don't care to wait five years just to break even on a new purchase.  I'd love to hide all my equity money in utilities  and Med stocks.  It's just lunacy to think  you are somehow safe in a stock with slow growth and a PE of 25-30.  A few quality utilities are there now.  The consumer non-durables aren't too far behind in over-valuation. 

On another subject is it OK to rant at analysts and  brokerage houses?  BofA Merrill Lynch downgrades Home Depot today.  Where were  they about 40 points ago 90 days ago when they had a buy on it?  Do people pay them for this idiotic advice?   The answer is yes unfortunately.   

I have plenty of money riding on the market but I will keep a lot of cash on hand.  Who knows when the real sale on equities is coming, but it's coming some year soon.  It's the only thing I can think of that makes any sense currently.  None of it matters when you are 30.  Just find good companies for the very longterm and hold on.

I'm in my (late) 30s. I still think valuation is an important component of any purchase decision. I'd rather be wrong about picking up shares in a quality aristocrat at 15 P/E in advance of the next downturn, than be wrong and have paid 20+. Peak to trough to peak is a lot shorter that way, and my overall yield is better at the end of the day.