(03-27-2020, 09:16 AM)Otter Wrote: Sold out of the UAL and SPY 210 Puts today for 5.5% and 4.8% gains, respectively.

Still sitting on the SQQQ. Also have a handful of 10/16/20 SPY 240 Puts in my wife's brokerage account that I am going to keep watching for a bit.

The risk/reward on the UAL and SPY 210s was just too high given the premiums paid, hence the rapid trades.

(03-27-2020, 02:17 PM)vbin Wrote: I am still holding my puts of spy 200 expiring in 6 months.

(03-27-2020, 02:51 PM)Otter Wrote:

(03-27-2020, 02:17 PM)vbin Wrote: I am still holding my puts of spy 200 expiring in 6 months.

You will likely get some big downwards spikes to enjoy those in the coming weeks. 

To be in the money at expiry, my UAL 35 Puts would have needed UAL trading around 27, due to crazy premiums, so selling during today's quick 6% spike down was an easy call. The SPY 210s were likewise quick trade material. The 240s feel a lot more solid, so am willing to hang on to those for bigger drop days. 

I'm sitting on all my stuff bought in early February (SPY 308, 305 and 293 strikes with October '20 or March '21 expiries).

(03-27-2020, 03:04 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-27-2020, 02:51 PM)Otter Wrote:

(03-27-2020, 02:17 PM)vbin Wrote: I am still holding my puts of spy 200 expiring in 6 months.

You will likely get some big downwards spikes to enjoy those in the coming weeks. 

To be in the money at expiry, my UAL 35 Puts would have needed UAL trading around 27, due to crazy premiums, so selling during today's quick 6% spike down was an easy call. The SPY 210s were likewise quick trade material. The 240s feel a lot more solid, so am willing to hang on to those for bigger drop days. 

I'm sitting on all my stuff bought in early February (SPY 308, 305 and 293 strikes with October '20 or March '21 expiries).

That's wonderful that u are holding them. As a friend put it to me, you need brains and balls of steel to hold on those puts in this volatility.  I had 6-8 puts I started buying in last quarter of 2019 for June 2020 spy 250. Sold them too soon else I will likely be sitting on a huge profit.

(03-30-2020, 11:14 AM)Otter Wrote: Bought some 01/21/2022 UUP 25 Puts today. If the dollar even touches the December, 2018 lows during this money printing spree, these should print.

There may be near-term strength in the dollar (there was at first in 2008), but eventually the money printing has the expected effect.

(03-30-2020, 11:54 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 11:14 AM)Otter Wrote: Bought some 01/21/2022 UUP 25 Puts today. If the dollar even touches the December, 2018 lows during this money printing spree, these should print.

There may be near-term strength in the dollar (there was at first in 2008), but eventually the money printing has the expected effect.

I'm not informed enough to trade those.  I just want you to know your trades the last two months are depressing but I am listening. I've had a wonderful last ten days and caught some breaks on long positions.  I just bought another SPY put and I am hedged some more.  I've lightened up gradually on longs as the tape blows though countless small limit sell orders to my surprise.  My next day off I am going to bury some gold in the back yard.  Enough to buy a mobile home in the Minnesota woods were I can fly fish for the rest of my life lol.    This market is crazy volatile.  I've never seen anything like it.  It is more than a little different this time.

(03-30-2020, 12:04 PM)Otter Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 11:54 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 11:14 AM)Otter Wrote: Bought some 01/21/2022 UUP 25 Puts today. If the dollar even touches the December, 2018 lows during this money printing spree, these should print.

There may be near-term strength in the dollar (there was at first in 2008), but eventually the money printing has the expected effect.

I'm not informed enough to trade those.  I just want you to know your trades the last two months are depressing but I am listening. I've had a wonderful last ten days and caught some breaks on long positions.  I just bought another SPY put and I am hedged some more.  I've lightened up gradually on longs as the tape blows though countless small limit sell orders to my surprise.  My next day off I am going to bury some gold in the back yard.  Enough to buy a mobile home in the Minnesota woods were I can fly fish for the rest of my life lol.    This market is crazy volatile.  I've never seen anything like it.  It is more than a little different this time.

So, in a nutshell . . . my SPY Puts are banking on another substantial leg down within the next 30 days. I doubt I will time the bottom, but that is my time horizon for selling and taking profits on those. 

USO 5 LEAPs expiring 22 months from now are somewhat self-explanatory. Despite the recent market run-up, oil has continued its nosedive straight down. I may not have caught the bottom on these calls, but seeing USO spike up above 5 in the next two years seems pretty likely. 

UUP Puts are just shorting the dollar vs. other currencies. Yes, everyone is printing at the moment, but we are printing like it is going out of style. I also anticipate that the U.S. is going to have a worse per-capita outcome from the Coronavirus than many other OECD nations (rise of confirmed cases on a time-adjusted scale compared to other countries supports this - we are having the worst growth of any country). There may be a short-term flight to safety in U.S. assets, as there was in 2008 (which drove up the dollar), but the ongoing QE pushed the value of the dollar down for years afterwards. The current administration (and any future administration) also has every incentive to debase the currency as much as possible vs. others, to bolster American industry's competitiveness during a recovery phase.