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+--- Thread: Help me design a growthy port please. (/showthread.php?tid=1935)
Help me design a growthy port please. - fenders53 - 10-15-2020
I'm a "basket" guy and long story short one of my baskets is now full. My Age 60-61 fund is complete and safely enough sitting in an ultra short term bond fund. Although not it's purpose, I suppose I would siphon some back into equities in the event of an epic market crash. Let's not think about that because we'd all be very sad before I did that.
So that leaves no place to send my monthly income stream which is 1/3 dividends and 2/3rds premiums from selling options. It's been a reliable income stream 10+ months a year. For the next two years I want to build a growthier port with the cash. Little overlap with my main port which most of you probably know by now is concentrated in UTEs, Pharma and Defense stocks. Lets assume I have $2500 monthly I would be adding to this new port. I haven't spent the OCT 1 money yet. For now I think I want to start with 5-10 stocks, large and mid-cap for now. A little spec could come later but I don't want to blow it up with excess risk starting out as that will kill my motivation. I am hopeful I could use this money in 5 years, but I could delay that if necessary.
-for now I am thinking about 50% tech-fintech. (QQQ may be part of it until I find a better deal on individual stocks)
-maybe one renewable energy stock but they need to pull back hard, they are insanely overvalued
-one REIT
-one retailer
-a couple industrials/transport
-perhaps one stock/ETF that is counter-cyclical to equities. Just to have a place to stick some cash when the rest of the port has run real hard to fast
-maybe one defense stock if I see a deal
-open to other sectors not mentioned
-NO high yield no growth stocks. I have plenty of that in my main port. Divs are nice but not required.
-The intent is to not trade this for years, though if something doubled fast I might trim it a bit.
I have a few tickers in mind, but not many. I'll wait for suggestions before I mention them.
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - EricL - 10-15-2020
I have a few names by sector to consider on my website's High Dividend Growth Stocks page.
Looking at your question, here's my thoughts.
Tech: ACN, AVGO, MA, NVDA, V
Renewable Energy: NEE
REIT: AMT
Retailer: DG, TSCO
Industrial: NSC/UNP
Defense: LMT or LHX
Materials: SHW
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - fenders53 - 10-15-2020
(10-15-2020, 01:20 PM)EricL Wrote: I have a few names by sector to consider on my website's High Dividend Growth Stocks page.Thanks Eric, I haven't been to your site for awhile. I will research the ones I am not familiar with
Looking at your question, here's my thoughts.
Tech: ACN, AVGO, MA, NVDA, V
Renewable Energy: NEE
REIT: AMT
Retailer: DG, TSCO
Industrial: NSC/UNP
Defense: LMT or LHX
Materials: SHW
NVDA-that was on the list. Thought I might buy a share and hope for a dip. Seems like a stock for the rest of my lifetime.
V-Have a modest position. Could "buy it" from my main port.
AVGO-Just put it on my watchlist this morning.
NEE- Already one of the largest positions in my main port.
DG- You read my mind. Some of this money came from flipping DG options. I need to go long. I can play with options in the main port. I see VERY few retailers that catch my eye short of a nasty correction.
LHX and LMT are out. Core positions in my main port.
Some of the industrials I have long considered have fleas. A rail is not out of the question for sure. UPS and FDX were obvious choices, but not currently. I don't want to make this too much about current valuation, but for now not chasing industrials than ran too far lately.
Still have a few stocks in mind but I'll hope they get mentioned here without prompting from me.
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - EricL - 10-15-2020
(10-15-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(10-15-2020, 01:20 PM)EricL Wrote: I have a few names by sector to consider on my website's High Dividend Growth Stocks page.Thanks Eric, I haven't been to your site for awhile. I will research the ones I am not familiar with
Looking at your question, here's my thoughts.
Tech: ACN, AVGO, MA, NVDA, V
Renewable Energy: NEE
REIT: AMT
Retailer: DG, TSCO
Industrial: NSC/UNP
Defense: LMT or LHX
Materials: SHW
NVDA-that was on the list. Thought I might buy a share and hope for a dip. Seems like a stock for the rest of my lifetime.
V-Have a modest position. Could "buy it" from my main port.
AVGO-Just put it on my watchlist this morning.
NEE- Already one of the largest positions in my main port.
DG- You read my mind. Some of this money came from flipping DG options. I need to go long. I can play with options in the main port. I see VERY few retailers that catch my eye short of a nasty correction.
LHX and LMT are out. Core positions in my main port.
Some of the industrials I have long considered have fleas. A rail is not out of the question for sure. UPS and FDX were obvious choices, but not currently. I don't want to make this too much about current valuation, but for now not chasing industrials than ran too far lately.
Still have a few stocks in mind but I'll hope they get mentioned here without prompting from me.
I LOVE the rails as long-term plays. They have monopolies, no new ones are being built, and they have pricing power.
I like UPS and FDX too, but long-term I'd much rather own railroads than shipping companies as I believe they are much more "Amazon proof".
CP, CSX, CNI, UNP and NSC have all returned 15+% annualized over the last 20 years compared with 5% from the S&P. Pretty remarkable how great of a business the railroads are.
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - fenders53 - 10-15-2020
(10-15-2020, 02:03 PM)EricL Wrote:Railroads have a moat, and they will sort out the excess-competition in a recession if you buy a major. And we agree. Bezos can buy 10000 trucks and squeeze FDX and UPS to the extent he can avoid anti-trust. He'll have to kill them slowly, and he likely will injure them at some point.(10-15-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(10-15-2020, 01:20 PM)EricL Wrote: I have a few names by sector to consider on my website's High Dividend Growth Stocks page.Thanks Eric, I haven't been to your site for awhile. I will research the ones I am not familiar with
Looking at your question, here's my thoughts.
Tech: ACN, AVGO, MA, NVDA, V
Renewable Energy: NEE
REIT: AMT
Retailer: DG, TSCO
Industrial: NSC/UNP
Defense: LMT or LHX
Materials: SHW
NVDA-that was on the list. Thought I might buy a share and hope for a dip. Seems like a stock for the rest of my lifetime.
V-Have a modest position. Could "buy it" from my main port.
AVGO-Just put it on my watchlist this morning.
NEE- Already one of the largest positions in my main port.
DG- You read my mind. Some of this money came from flipping DG options. I need to go long. I can play with options in the main port. I see VERY few retailers that catch my eye short of a nasty correction.
LHX and LMT are out. Core positions in my main port.
Some of the industrials I have long considered have fleas. A rail is not out of the question for sure. UPS and FDX were obvious choices, but not currently. I don't want to make this too much about current valuation, but for now not chasing industrials than ran too far lately.
Still have a few stocks in mind but I'll hope they get mentioned here without prompting from me.
I LOVE the rails as long-term plays. They have monopolies, no new ones are being built, and they have pricing power.
I like UPS and FDX too, but long-term I'd much rather own railroads than shipping companies as I believe they are much more "Amazon proof".
CP, CSX, CNI, UNP and NSC have all returned 15+% annualized over the last 20 years compared with 5% from the S&P. Pretty remarkable how great of a business the railroads are.
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - divmenow - 10-15-2020
(10-15-2020, 02:03 PM)EricL Wrote:(10-15-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(10-15-2020, 01:20 PM)EricL Wrote: I have a few names by sector to consider on my website's High Dividend Growth Stocks page.Thanks Eric, I haven't been to your site for awhile. I will research the ones I am not familiar with
Looking at your question, here's my thoughts.
Tech: ACN, AVGO, MA, NVDA, V
Renewable Energy: NEE
REIT: AMT
Retailer: DG, TSCO
Industrial: NSC/UNP
Defense: LMT or LHX
Materials: SHW
NVDA-that was on the list. Thought I might buy a share and hope for a dip. Seems like a stock for the rest of my lifetime.
V-Have a modest position. Could "buy it" from my main port.
AVGO-Just put it on my watchlist this morning.
NEE- Already one of the largest positions in my main port.
DG- You read my mind. Some of this money came from flipping DG options. I need to go long. I can play with options in the main port. I see VERY few retailers that catch my eye short of a nasty correction.
LHX and LMT are out. Core positions in my main port.
Some of the industrials I have long considered have fleas. A rail is not out of the question for sure. UPS and FDX were obvious choices, but not currently. I don't want to make this too much about current valuation, but for now not chasing industrials than ran too far lately.
Still have a few stocks in mind but I'll hope they get mentioned here without prompting from me.
I LOVE the rails as long-term plays. They have monopolies, no new ones are being built, and they have pricing power.
I like UPS and FDX too, but long-term I'd much rather own railroads than shipping companies as I believe they are much more "Amazon proof".
CP, CSX, CNI, UNP and NSC have all returned 15+% annualized over the last 20 years compared with 5% from the S&P. Pretty remarkable how great of a business the railroads are.
Be very careful buying the rails right now. They are getting over valued, and if your patient enough better opportunities will come along. They are averaging 15% now because they have gone up so much, but history says they will drop at some point and that's when you buy. The time to buy these was when they were out of favor. Like back in March when NSC was at $123. Your chasing now
Same with FDX and UPS. Everyone hated both names just 6 months ago lol. Now there loved
The time to buy them was under $90 and $120. Too late now. They have had there runs!!My comments are not meant to scare you lol. I'm just saying a lot of patience is needed in this market. And just don't because you want the stock. The market always gives you opportunities.
And when you build a portfolio buy the leaders. They hold up the best and come back after a correction.
Tech - APPL, MSFT, AVGO, and MA
RETAIL- COST, SBUX, DG, HD and LOW
Utilities - NEE and AWK
Defense - LMT
Consumer - MKC, PEP and PG
Chemicals - APD
Restaurant - MCD
Rails - NSC
Industrials - ITW and WM
You can throw in a few name to have fun with as well like the Renewal energy names
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - EricL - 10-15-2020
(10-15-2020, 03:10 PM)divmenow Wrote: Tech - APPL, MSFT, AVGO, and MA
RETAIL- COST, SBUX, DG, HD and LOW
Utilities - NEE and AWK
Defense - LMT
Consumer - MKC, PEP and PG
Chemicals - APD
Restaurant - MCD
Rails - NSC
Industrials - ITW and WM
You can throw in a few name to have fun with as well like the Renewal energy names
UNP is trading at 26X 2020 estimates while NSC is at 24.5, and that is with current year earnings being negatively impacted by a recession and historically low energy prices. Both are currently projected for double-digit growth going forward.
They are expensive against historical levels, but not anymore than others on your list. AAPL, APD, AWK, COST, MA, MKC are all trading at PE's of 35-40.
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - fenders53 - 10-15-2020
(10-15-2020, 03:10 PM)divmenow Wrote:A lot of good picks in there. I own some of them in my main port, or already flipped a few like UPS and MCD during the Covid correction. I know everything above average is fully valued or much worse. At some point I will have to stop sitting on my hands. I may just buy one share of each of a dozen stocks then trim it back as I research and wait for dips. Glad you brought up a few more sectors I didn't mention. My heart wants to jump into half a dozen techs right now. I need to be patient with that. This will be the first true DCA I have done in years. It will be fun to work off a monthly budget and build it up much like an Eric port. My main port has no rules other than hit the income numbers. I'll track these on a spread sheet. My biggest temptation will be to buy stuff that is heavily discounted but lacks true growth. I can do that elsewhere and keep the theme.(10-15-2020, 02:03 PM)EricL Wrote:(10-15-2020, 01:45 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(10-15-2020, 01:20 PM)EricL Wrote: I have a few names by sector to consider on my website's High Dividend Growth Stocks page.Thanks Eric, I haven't been to your site for awhile. I will research the ones I am not familiar with
Looking at your question, here's my thoughts.
Tech: ACN, AVGO, MA, NVDA, V
Renewable Energy: NEE
REIT: AMT
Retailer: DG, TSCO
Industrial: NSC/UNP
Defense: LMT or LHX
Materials: SHW
NVDA-that was on the list. Thought I might buy a share and hope for a dip. Seems like a stock for the rest of my lifetime.
V-Have a modest position. Could "buy it" from my main port.
AVGO-Just put it on my watchlist this morning.
NEE- Already one of the largest positions in my main port.
DG- You read my mind. Some of this money came from flipping DG options. I need to go long. I can play with options in the main port. I see VERY few retailers that catch my eye short of a nasty correction.
LHX and LMT are out. Core positions in my main port.
Some of the industrials I have long considered have fleas. A rail is not out of the question for sure. UPS and FDX were obvious choices, but not currently. I don't want to make this too much about current valuation, but for now not chasing industrials than ran too far lately.
Still have a few stocks in mind but I'll hope they get mentioned here without prompting from me.
I LOVE the rails as long-term plays. They have monopolies, no new ones are being built, and they have pricing power.
I like UPS and FDX too, but long-term I'd much rather own railroads than shipping companies as I believe they are much more "Amazon proof".
CP, CSX, CNI, UNP and NSC have all returned 15+% annualized over the last 20 years compared with 5% from the S&P. Pretty remarkable how great of a business the railroads are.
Be very careful buying the rails right now. They are getting over valued, and if your patient enough better opportunities will come along. They are averaging 15% now because they have gone up so much, but history says they will drop at some point and that's when you buy. The time to buy these was when they were out of favor. Like back in March when NSC was at $123. Your chasing now
Same with FDX and UPS. Everyone hated both names just 6 months ago lol. Now there loved
My comments are not meant to scare you lol. I'm just saying a lot of patience is needed in this market. And just don't because you want the stock. The market always gives you opportunities.
And when you build a portfolio buy the leaders. They hold up the best and come back after a correction.
Tech - APPL, MSFT, AVGO, and MA
RETAIL- COST, SBUX, DG, HD and LOW
Utilities - NEE and AWK
Defense - LMT
Consumer - MKC, PEP and PG
Chemicals - APD
Restaurant - MCD
Rails - NSC
Industrials - ITW and WM
You can throw in a few name to have fun with as well like the Renewal energy names
I'll re look at few renewables and throw up the names. This will probably be the mid-cap for now. Now to figure out which ones can turn a profit in a year. Most of them are a joke based on fundamentals but they run anyway.
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - fenders53 - 10-15-2020
(10-15-2020, 03:41 PM)EricL Wrote:I will look at the rails tonight and pick one to get this started. I could always switch horses later but I am going to try to avoid that. There are a lot of stocks with 20+ PEs and virtually zero growth in the near future. I am going to avoid those. Real growth stocks grow annually, but yes 2020 could be an exception. I'm not looking for a promise that starts three years from now. The market is currently not properly discounting that wait time IMO.(10-15-2020, 03:10 PM)divmenow Wrote: Tech - APPL, MSFT, AVGO, and MA
RETAIL- COST, SBUX, DG, HD and LOW
Utilities - NEE and AWK
Defense - LMT
Consumer - MKC, PEP and PG
Chemicals - APD
Restaurant - MCD
Rails - NSC
Industrials - ITW and WM
You can throw in a few name to have fun with as well like the Renewal energy names
UNP is trading at 26X 2020 estimates while NSC is at 24.5, and that is with current year earnings being negatively impacted by a recession and historically low energy prices. Both are currently projected for double-digit growth going forward.
They are expensive against historical levels, but not anymore than others on your list. AAPL, APD, AWK, COST, MA, MKC are all trading at PE's of 35-40.
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - fenders53 - 10-15-2020
I think these will make the initial list. I'll pick up a share each of most starting tomorrow.
Industrial/Transport- UNP, ADP (HON and CAT got culled. GNRC is tempting).
Retail- DG
Tech- NVDA, GOOGL (considering MSFT)
Defense- Considering NOC since I own the other major players in my main port. Defense isn't mandatory.
At a minimum I'll need more tech and FIN Tech. A stock that doesn't cost $200+ would be handy too, but not a criteria of course. I'll probably skip restaurants and hospitality in general.
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - crimsonghost747 - 10-16-2020
I know you don't particularly like the sector, and growth is hard to see these days, but how about airlines? 5 years sounds like a pretty good timeline for things to return to normal, and as you are well aware the stocks are anywhere between -50% and -75% from where they were at the start of the year.
Same logic could be used for cruise line stocks. And probably some restaurant stocks too. The idea with all of these is that if you are indeed planning on using the money in about 5 years, these could bring in some decent capital gains simply because they are absolutely destroyed right now.
Tech:
UI has done some tremendous things in the past years but the growth has been slowing down and it's definitely too expensive right now. I wouldn't recommend buying now but worth keeping your eyes on it. Also a potential buyout target since the CEO owns something like 85% already and share repurchases are eating up the remaining shares.
U is a very interesting company in the tech space. Super highly valued and no real historical data yet as it just IPO'd last month or something like that.
V and/or MA would also fit pretty well I think.
RE: Help me design a growthy port please. - fenders53 - 10-16-2020
(10-16-2020, 04:04 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: I know you don't particularly like the sector, and growth is hard to see these days, but how about airlines? 5 years sounds like a pretty good timeline for things to return to normal, and as you are well aware the stocks are anywhere between -50% and -75% from where they were at the start of the year.I appreciate the income from all you guys. I've been thinking about this for two months but I new you guys would have some good idea.
Same logic could be used for cruise line stocks. And probably some restaurant stocks too. The idea with all of these is that if you are indeed planning on using the money in about 5 years, these could bring in some decent capital gains simply because they are absolutely destroyed right now.
Tech:
UI has done some tremendous things in the past years but the growth has been slowing down and it's definitely too expensive right now. I wouldn't recommend buying now but worth keeping your eyes on it. Also a potential buyout target since the CEO owns something like 85% already and share repurchases are eating up the remaining shares.
U is a very interesting company in the tech space. Super highly valued and no real historical data yet as it just IPO'd last month or something like that.
V and/or MA would also fit pretty well I think.
I think I am going to avoid the IPO and highly speculative game early on. I do want this to be different than my big port, but mostly blue chips. I was disappointed to see how overvalued most everything on my list is. I'm not expecting March 20 prices, but I'm not to keen on buying stocks that are up 10%+ in just a few weeks either. My random thoughts for today are as follows lol.......
-Allow myself until NOV 15th to get this month and next months funds invested. That is $5K total.
-I probably should add a sector that is beaten down. I don't hate airlines, I'm just a realist and holding DAL and AAL was painful this spring. There are a few airlines that won't BK, but they are years from a profit so the timeline does work. GD even crossed my mind as they will be years recovering from commercial air drawdown. BA is a nope, only because it could easily take even longer to right the balance sheet. I think I'll avoid the cruise lines. BKs are even more possible there for sure. Restaurants maybe, but I want a pullback before I buy significant shares. Many of them got way ahead of themselves IMO. I could buy a few shares though. I can dump a stock and flip to another in a sector. I just don't want to make that a habit. It's fun and I'll get out of control lol.
-I am avoiding any and all longtime dog stocks like T, MO, F, XOM etc. Completely misses the theme of this port as they need to be swing traded for any real CAP appreciation.
-A foreign stock is not out of the question. Perhaps an established midcap in a growthy sector? I don't need to make all these picks immediately. This will get much easier the next time the market pulls back 10-15% as some individual stocks will get hit worse. So I guess I'll get started but go slowly while I wait for an election or a pandemic to create an opportunity. A stimulus will nullify all that for a time of course.
-And here is a rule that will keep me from storing cash and market timing. This port has been approve for a $2500 credit line from my main port.
So I'm never cashless if the market drops the day after I make my monthly purchases.-For now I am going to put the funds in a short-term bond ETF or similar. Somewhere I can get near a 1% return. Makes it easier to track the interest accrued by keeping it out of my large settlement account.
Divmenow, I'll throw up some renewables tickers today. I am thinking mostly staying away from the highly commoditized area. A company that only manufactures solar cells is going to struggle competing with China etc. Valuations on these stocks are just whacked. Most of the weak ones are even up 3x in six months with zippo earnings.