(03-13-2020, 09:51 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ]Damn, you guys have been busy.
I've been riding out this armageddon on a paradise island. It's been a blast: sea, sun, +1200m elevation hike to the top of a volcano, cheap beer, good food. Not a worry in the world!
Unfortunately there are a million things going on with my life at the moment so I haven't had much time to keep up with the market properly. Thankfully I now have the weekend to sort out what I've actually done and what I should do next week haha.
Also did something for the first time ever with stocks: I bought with a mobile app. I didn't have my laptop so I had to improvise! It's a pain but hey, I managed to add to RTN, TD, BIP and HON on Thursday.
Dividend Dragon asked about buy levels.
For me, I look at the S&P500.
My plan says to make additional purchases when the S&P500 is trading around
2750
2600
2500
2425
2350
2000
I'm not actually sure if I got all of the 2600 level money in, I know I didn't get any of the 2500.
So here is to hoping we go all the way to 2000!
Sounds like you are having some great adventures. The top of a volvano might be a safe place to hangout. And you can always jump if the market drops to 1000 or something crazy. Â
Â
No doubt a good thing you couldn't trade and missed some of the free fall. The will bottom weeks before sentiment turns like always. The best buying days may be in the next few weeks? Some of the very best values will get noticed soon and the individual stocks will finally find some support, whether the index does or not. Â
One bit if advice.... the volatility is historic. On the days the stock futures limit down and a horrendous open is coming, low ball limit buy orders have been effective. You can see the ridiculous pre-market bid/ask.  Fools are panicking and punching in market sell orders and getting crushed at the open on high quality stocks, then the stock rebounds in five or ten minutes. They actually had all day to get out without losing an extra 5%+ at the open. It happens so fast and you have to have orders entered pre-market. You can always try to jump in and adjust them up to get your shares if you miss the spike down, and be no worse off. It's highly likely we get another one of those days this week after Friday's short squeeze.
(03-13-2020, 05:55 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-13-2020, 05:44 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ] (03-13-2020, 04:40 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-13-2020, 04:28 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ] (03-13-2020, 01:27 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]He has MANY times stated he wants cheap oil, and cheap gasoline. It's here.  Paying frack worker unemployment benefits no big deal. Just put it on our deficit tab. Some other Prez can deal with it later. Oil will rebound to $40-45 by late summer. Not good enough for my failed oil investment thesis I once had. I'm the bear now lol.
He played very well then becouse he just announced we will be buying oil for strategic reserve, they can keep buying a million barrel a day for next 2 years. That's wonderful.
Do some research on your math. Tanks aren't that big and they are never anywhere near empty. It will help this month though. Better than a poke in the eye for sure. Some more tanks would be good, but the US is always flush with oil so that may or may not make strategic sense.  Â
All that said it does help though, because when the Saudi discount takes affect in April we can't export oil profitably. For now our oil has a buyer while OPEC and Russia come to their senses. (which I think they will)  Hopefully the frackers don't step up production tomorrow and unfix the remedy. I'm not optimistic as they have loan payments.
U.S. has anywhere between 800 Million to a billion storage cap. Last time I checked we were close to 500 million. Now that doesn't mean that oil never gets used. So in a rough estimate you can see where it's going.
It might keep the 100 or so independent frackers and their local towns in business until after the election normally. But we have a virus that is going to shut down the world according to many and cut demand several million barrels per day for many months.  If you fill the reserve and then release it back to the market, you are now competing with the same market in a few months and just taking up part of supply. So I guess we'll watch oil prices and see if it raises prices $15+ so everyone is happy for more than a couple months. The oil futures will let us know very soon what is reality. It should spike up bigly if you are right. We'll know in just a few days after they run the actual math.
Agree with you on demand. But on a contrary a lot of countries, India, China etc who import most of their oil will try to take advantage of this opportunity as well and fill up their reserve.so.we shall see.
(03-14-2020, 12:04 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ] (03-13-2020, 05:55 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-13-2020, 05:44 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ] (03-13-2020, 04:40 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-13-2020, 04:28 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]He played very well then becouse he just announced we will be buying oil for strategic reserve, they can keep buying a million barrel a day for next 2 years. That's wonderful.
Do some research on your math. Tanks aren't that big and they are never anywhere near empty. It will help this month though. Better than a poke in the eye for sure. Some more tanks would be good, but the US is always flush with oil so that may or may not make strategic sense.  Â
All that said it does help though, because when the Saudi discount takes affect in April we can't export oil profitably. For now our oil has a buyer while OPEC and Russia come to their senses. (which I think they will)  Hopefully the frackers don't step up production tomorrow and unfix the remedy. I'm not optimistic as they have loan payments.
U.S. has anywhere between 800 Million to a billion storage cap. Last time I checked we were close to 500 million. Now that doesn't mean that oil never gets used. So in a rough estimate you can see where it's going.
It might keep the 100 or so independent frackers and their local towns in business until after the election normally. But we have a virus that is going to shut down the world according to many and cut demand several million barrels per day for many months.  If you fill the reserve and then release it back to the market, you are now competing with the same market in a few months and just taking up part of supply.  So I guess we'll watch oil prices and see if it raises prices $15+ so everyone is happy for more than a couple months. The oil futures will let us know very soon what is reality. It should spike up bigly if you are right. We'll know in just a few days after they run the actual math.
Agree with you on demand. But on a contrary a lot of countries, India, China etc who import most of their oil will try to take advantage of this opportunity as well and fill up their reserve.so.we shall see.
SA is offering oil at a $4-7 discount from market prices starting in Apr. That is oil in the 20s from current price. Importing nations would be crazy to not fill their reserves. Next time oil tries to run up $10 they can just buy less until is cheaper again. This is why I think SA and Russia will get back to the table soon. SA can break even around $10 oil, and be stubborn if they wish to, but it's their only real source of income. They can send the US frackers to BK fast, but not in their national interest to give away oil for six months. US can print money and keep the frackers solvent until the election. I expect that will happen when the US strategic reserve fill is done in a few months.  Spiking unemployment before the election is highly undesirable.
Over the past couple of weeks I added CNP, PPL (new), ROSS (new), OKE, XOM, EIX, TJX, MRK, PRU, CAT, BA, MO, LEG, ADM, BEN, UNP, NUE (new), LOW, EMR, ETN, BP, DIS, CSCO, DAL (new), MA, LMT. All in small amounts.
I am hoping some of the high P/E stocks can go lower. MSFT, ADP, WM, V, MA, COST, SBUX, MCD are on my watch list.
Breaking - Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches $700 billion quantitive easing program.
Futures are down 800 points right now on the news. I want to add a few utilities tomorrow.
These sectors should do well when rates are lowered are .
Gold
Utilities
Drugs
Reits
Oil
Infrastructure
High dividends
Small caps
BREAKING: 8 of the biggest U.S. banks say they will suspend share buybacks though Q2 of 2020. The banks are: Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street & Wells Fargo.
(03-13-2020, 09:51 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ]Damn, you guys have been busy.
I've been riding out this armageddon on a paradise island. It's been a blast: sea, sun, +1200m elevation hike to the top of a volcano, cheap beer, good food. Not a worry in the world!
Unfortunately there are a million things going on with my life at the moment so I haven't had much time to keep up with the market properly. Thankfully I now have the weekend to sort out what I've actually done and what I should do next week haha.
Also did something for the first time ever with stocks: I bought with a mobile app. I didn't have my laptop so I had to improvise! It's a pain but hey, I managed to add to RTN, TD, BIP and HON on Thursday.
Dividend Dragon asked about buy levels.
For me, I look at the S&P500.
My plan says to make additional purchases when the S&P500 is trading around
2750
2600
2500
2425
2350
2000
I'm not actually sure if I got all of the 2600 level money in, I know I didn't get any of the 2500.
So here is to hoping we go all the way to 2000!
(03-15-2020, 04:48 PM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]Breaking - Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches $700 billion quantitive easing program.
Futures are down 800 points right now on the news. Â I want to add a few utilities tomorrow.
These sectors should do well when rates are lowered are .
Gold
Utilities
Drugs
Reits
Oil
Infrastructure
High dividends
Small caps
BREAKING: 8 of the biggest U.S. banks say they will suspend share buybacks though Q2 of 2020. The banks are: Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street & Wells Fargo.
Red,Red,Red!!!
I don't know that it will do any good now, but the market has about all the rocket fuel it could ever hope for to bounce quickly when the flu begins to subside.
If times were normal what you said is correct This is far from normal and I would go slow. I sold my heath care ETF on Thursday. Not that I wanted to lighten up. Figured if I sucked my thumb a couple days I might get a chance to move it to individual stocks and increase my entry yield. My covered calls expired so I am almost hedgeless now unfortunately. I think I'll regret it if I sell new ones down here. It's going to be another interesting week. I'll probably re-arrange a few more chairs on the Titanic port if it makes sense.
(03-15-2020, 06:51 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-13-2020, 09:51 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ]Damn, you guys have been busy.
I've been riding out this armageddon on a paradise island. It's been a blast: sea, sun, +1200m elevation hike to the top of a volcano, cheap beer, good food. Not a worry in the world!
Unfortunately there are a million things going on with my life at the moment so I haven't had much time to keep up with the market properly. Thankfully I now have the weekend to sort out what I've actually done and what I should do next week haha.
Also did something for the first time ever with stocks: I bought with a mobile app. I didn't have my laptop so I had to improvise! It's a pain but hey, I managed to add to RTN, TD, BIP and HON on Thursday.
Dividend Dragon asked about buy levels.
For me, I look at the S&P500.
My plan says to make additional purchases when the S&P500 is trading around
2750
2600
2500
2425
2350
2000
I'm not actually sure if I got all of the 2600 level money in, I know I didn't get any of the 2500.
So here is to hoping we go all the way to 2000!
(03-15-2020, 04:48 PM)divmenow Wrote: [ -> ]Breaking - Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches $700 billion quantitive easing program.
Futures are down 800 points right now on the news. Â I want to add a few utilities tomorrow.
These sectors should do well when rates are lowered are .
Gold
Utilities
Drugs
Reits
Oil
Infrastructure
High dividends
Small caps
BREAKING: 8 of the biggest U.S. banks say they will suspend share buybacks though Q2 of 2020. The banks are: Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street & Wells Fargo.
Red,Red,Red!!!
I don't know that it will do any good now, but the market has about all the rocket fuel it could ever hope for to bounce quickly when the flu begins to subside.
If times were normal what you said is correct  This is far from normal and I would go slow.  I sold my heath care ETF on Thursday.  Not that I wanted to lighten up.  Figured if I sucked my thumb a couple days I might get a chance to move it to individual stocks and increase my entry yield.  My covered calls expired so I am almost hedgeless now unfortunately.  I think I'll regret it if I sell new ones down here.  It's going to be another interesting week.  I'll probably re-arrange a few more chairs on the Titanic port if it makes sense.
I think you're right on that one. I sold and bought back my covered call on PENN about 5 times since I bought it. I'm almost flat on it despite the price being down significantly.
(03-15-2020, 08:27 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]2000 coming.
$2000 for 100 shares of XOM?
Calm down, it might not be that bad. Â
(03-15-2020, 09:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-15-2020, 08:27 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]2000 coming.
$2000 for 100 shares of XOM?
Calm down, it might not be that bad. Â
You have been thinking that since 3400. Look at what goldman is saying and put some thought into why.
(03-15-2020, 09:58 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ] (03-15-2020, 09:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-15-2020, 08:27 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]2000 coming.
$2000 for 100 shares of XOM?
Calm down, it might not be that bad. Â
You have been thinking that since 3400. Look at what goldman is saying and put some thought into why.
Not sure what you meant by that? If you mean my optimism, I'm guilty of being bullish long-term. It's what DGI investors do. I'll navigate the short-term, raise my DIV yield and the quality of my port, whether we go to 2000 or 1000. I do trade for entertainment. It's a very small part of my game.  I can start doing absolutely nothing with my investments at any time and it will be OK in the end.           Â
I'm just messing with you on XOM.Â
 Wherever XOM goes my BP will be right there with them. I'm going to attempt to lighten this thread up if you haven't noticed. The market is stressful. Scary stuff with the historic volatility and the news.