Dividend Growth Forum

Full Version: What Did You Buy Today?
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767
(02-07-2020, 09:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-07-2020, 08:05 PM)vbin Wrote: [ -> ]I have been debating to add XOM in my kids account( I am already ankle deep into it in my account) and trying to study on future energy demand outlook and what role oil and natural gas are going to play. ( I am 90% convinced that XOM is a great buy at current prices for the next decade to come,not so sure about the next to next decade).

As part of this research the other name which came up strongly is BP. Found their official channel on YouTube. Here is a link if anyone is interested https://www.youtube.com/user/BPplc. They also have bunch of other links mention on their website which were quite interesting.

What folks here think  about BP vs XOM? Also would love to hear some investment worthy renewable energy companies from future growth prospective since that's definitely seems to be an area which will keep growing.

Maybe transfer some XOM to your kid's account, or do a real quick buy and sell in both accounts so you don't  end up with more XOM unless that's what you really want?  A long term account like that could use some reliable growers, or at least some growth to fund the Div longer term.  

You know my opinion of BP but I'll expand in generalizations.  I haven't looked at updated financials since the latest earnings report.  I do hope to hear dissenting opinions.  I don't come here to get internet high fives lol.  And I am not thrilled with oil at all right now.  You'll have that when the market hates them.  

Haven't read your link yet but I definitely will, but IMO and overall, BP is marginally better for the following reasons, heavy emphasis on my opinion. 

-While they both have good balance sheets, XOM is throwing down on future supply in Africa, as if that is somehow necessary anytime soon.  That mystifies me.  We have large ooil producers off the market due to sanctions. That doesn't last forever. We are late cycle IMO and that balance sheet could suffer some.  All the majors are blowing earnings YOY now.  Maybe they do need more oil next year?  Or are they just helping to drive down oil prices further?  Maybe increase capacity by buying dying small companies for 25% of value.  The little guys with debt are already in trouble and the economy is doing OK.  

-BP is making some investments in green energy.  Bio-fuels, windmills, solar and such.  Yes they are small investments in small companies for now.  Are they doing it because they are London based and forced to for political reasons?  Maybe so, but that is their reality in Europe.  It will be the part of the future that is almost certainly growing.  OMG they are talking about banning ICE vehicles soon.  That's crazy but they may start taxing dirty vehicles.  We'll see.  Now I'm not delusional, these green investments are not going to add much revenue for now.  They can sit on their hands like Ford and GM have done until recently.  Show me some evidence XOM is making a move?  They do have a few cool slides on their website.  The math works for natty gas.  It's free and nothing is more efficient.  But is it just about the math?  A Tesla is about as green as the nearest power plant.  IMO it's a green farce for now and it doesn't seem to matter at all.  I don't think it will matter anytime soon, if ever.

-BP had a horrible accident in the gulf in 2010.  They have been paying off a huge fine since then.  Multli-billions per year.  That cost finally goes under $1B this year.  That's a real big deal.  It's been choking them for a decade.  They had to learn to be operate austere.  That has a lot to do with their conservative CAPEX.  More cash to pay that near 7% Div.  They just raised it again.         
-Final thought, these oil majors all pay awesome Divs currently.  I think it's starting to look a little sketchy if earnings keep dropping.  That is much of why share prices are dropping.  Well that and funds are being pressured to get out of fossil fuels.  More politics but it's our reality.  I don't want to see worldwide industrial production have a recession.  Bottomline is I don't care what any of these majors did the last 30 years.  It means nothing to me now. 

-Need further evidence that making the green transition can be profitable because you are backed politically.  Have a look at most all of the successful UTEs.  Getting greener every year.  Yes they are regulated.  Did you notice how fast coal is dying?  In much of the world oil is soon to face the same pressure IMO.   

-I don't much care what S.A. oil bulls are preaching.  They've been wrong for 10 years and I lost money listening to their advice.  Please somebody tell me why it's different now?  Anybody think I am a lefty DEM yet?  You'd be wrong to think that.  I'm just keeping my eyes wide open, cashing my Div checks from BP and ETF BGR (owns all the majors for diversification), and definitely holding my breath for now. Doesn't matter if I am wrong for a week or a month when oil spikes, and it will. I'm not here for a month.
Thank you. You mention some really good points. Thank you for being the point to transfer stock or do an exchange kind of trade between account. I did not think about it.


Talking about coal: I hear a lot about coal consumption going down as well but then I came across this resource and atleast as per this source, coal consumption isn't going down as fast as we think yet. https://youtu.be/ELYeTo2HqYY.
What's a three year stock chart on a major coal company look like? That's not a wise remark, as I truly don't know the answer. That might be a reality check. I do know some major UTEs are accelerating their previous closure schedule for coal fired plants. By years in some cases. You follow XEL? They are 20% renewable now and ahead of schedule. Plan is 100% green by 2050. Seems optimistic but they are making progress in a hurry. I think they will be near 100% natty gas and renewables this decade.

We have a new speculative stock thread. We should combine efforts and dissect some green stocks there, I bet they look very speculative at this time. and TEVA info as well.
(02-07-2020, 09:48 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]What's a three year stock chart on a major coal company look like? That's not a wise remark, as I truly don't know the answer. That might be a reality check. I do know some major UTEs are accelerating their previous closure schedule for coal fired plants. By years in some cases. You follow XEL? They are 20% renewable now and ahead of schedule. Plan is 100% green by 2050. Seems optimistic but they are making progress in a hurry. I think they will be near 100% natty gas and renewables this decade.

We have a new speculative stock thread. We should combine efforts and dissect some green stocks there, I bet they look very speculative at this time.
Thank you bringing in XEL, I will check them. May be in developed countries coal consumption is going down after than rest of the world. Good pointer. Let me do some more research on that. I do think that rise and decline of oil will be fairly similar to coal after next couple of decades.
Don't be buying any Utes right now on account of me LOL. I'm in DEEP and have owned XEL since it was about $7.50 but they have much higher PEs than CSCO and a bunch of other growthier stocks. That won't last forever. If you aren't in already buy a few shares of the best and wait for a much better time. There are maybe six big Utes that are killing it and transitioning cleaner fast, and greener as they can.

BTW My thesis is not that oil is going to decline. Not at all!!! But is it going to grow slowly while it continues to be easy to over supply? It's not even arguable that is gong on right now, and it's the problem with SPs for years. They can bring it to market cheaper every year and at least at break even. That's probably good because we are pretty much at 1990's gasoline prices again if you don't live in a socialist state where the taxes are stupid high and getting worse every year.
(02-07-2020, 09:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]Need further evidence that making the green transition can be profitable because you are backed politically.  Have a look at most all of the successful UTEs.  Getting greener every year.  Yes they are regulated.  Did you notice how fast coal is dying?  In much of the world oil is soon to face the same pressure IMO.   

I'd just like to touch on the subject that oil and renewable electricity, as in wind/solar etc, have about zero overlap. Do not confuse energy and electricity. About 1% of oil usage in the US is for electricity generation. I expect the rest of the world to be more or less around the same levels. Oil just hasn't been used for electricity generation for years, so the main argument for "green electricity" replacing oil is indeed with electric vehicles. Will that happen in a large scale? In Europe, yes. In the USA, I wouldn't be so sure. In Africa, Asia? Hahah yeah not in our lifetime.

And yes, coal is dying IN THE WEST because of governments outright banning it, or finding alternative ways (taxes) to cripple it. That's the only reason. Worldwide consumption of coal has remained pretty balanced these past few years, mainly due to China's huge increases. 


But my point is that even with the current climate frenzy and western governments making massive political moves to "go green", all of this has very limited impact on the demand for oil.
(02-07-2020, 11:57 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: [ -> ]
(02-07-2020, 09:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: [ -> ]Need further evidence that making the green transition can be profitable because you are backed politically.  Have a look at most all of the successful UTEs.  Getting greener every year.  Yes they are regulated.  Did you notice how fast coal is dying?  In much of the world oil is soon to face the same pressure IMO.   

I'd just like to touch on the subject that oil and renewable electricity, as in wind/solar etc, have about zero overlap. Do not confuse energy and electricity. About 1% of oil usage in the US is for electricity generation. I expect the rest of the world to be more or less around the same levels. Oil just hasn't been used for electricity generation for years, so the main argument for "green electricity" replacing oil is indeed with electric vehicles. Will that happen in a large scale? In Europe, yes. In the USA, I wouldn't be so sure. In Africa, Asia? Hahah yeah not in our lifetime.

And yes, coal is dying IN THE WEST because of governments outright banning it, or finding alternative ways (taxes) to cripple it. That's the only reason. Worldwide consumption of coal has remained pretty balanced these past few years, mainly due to China's huge increases. 


But my point is that even with the current climate frenzy and western governments making massive political moves to "go green", all of this has very limited impact on the demand for oil.
Crimson, agreed and sorry if I am confusing the issue by injecting Utes into the discussion.  It was intended to be an example of how fast the move to green can cause change in an industry. Natty gas has half the carbon emissions of coal. It's also abundant and expected to remain so. Wind and solar may never be as cost efficient as fossil fuels, but less emissions.  So the conversion is happening, and a little faster than most thought possible. It doesn't matter if one believes in climate change.  The world does, and we make money in stocks  by understanding trends and investing accordingly. Not by yearning for XOM's stock performance a few decades ago to return. A TSLA is actually powered by natty gas and coal, majority anyway. Doesn't matter.  See stock multiples for confirmation. 

All of this is interesting, and confusing. Now back to supply and demand for oil because that is what keeps our oil majors where they are for many years on end.
Not worried about electric cars taking over anytime soon. For reasons in the link below and concerns ogf the grid supporting a massive number of electric cars.

https://apnews.com/04029bd1e0a94cd59ff9540a398c12d1
(02-08-2020, 06:07 PM)NilesMike Wrote: [ -> ]Not worried about electric cars taking over anytime soon. For reasons in the link below and concerns ogf the grid supporting a massive number of electric cars.

https://apnews.com/04029bd1e0a94cd59ff9540a398c12d1

I don't think anybody is anytime soon.  Cheap oil now and EVs barely exist yet seems to be the near-term problem.
If anybody cares, I started a thread in off topic to discuss electric cars and some thoughts I have had after 19 months of ownership.
Purchased some DOW over the weekend. An exercised put I previously sold actually. Guess my DOW entry is $48. I am very underweight materials stocks.
Added Yum China
As long as Nat gas is under 2 and crude is under 50, oil stocks are overpriced even if they look cheap on paper. The size of the dividend is meaningless if they have to borrow from equity to pay it. Nat gas may find a bottom down the road buy there is no hurry to buy the OXY and XOM of the world. However I do continue to add to BP as I feel they are headed in the right direction with some recent purchases in the renewable energy field. I do have oil stocks on my watch list but I’m not adding anymore into that sector util I see some positive news.

To me the play is in renewable energy stocks. I have added 6 names in that space as I think they are the future. A few months back I bought NEE, NEP, ORA and TERP.

Today I bought BEP and PEGI. BEP to me is like NEE was a few years back.

Is anyone else in this space?
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 744 745 746 747 748 749 750 751 752 753 754 755 756 757 758 759 760 761 762 763 764 765 766 767