VBIN's oil stock thread.

[EricL]

Jeff Currie from Goldman Sachs,  part of transcript from a discussion this morning on the commodities super cycle.
 
Jeff-

   Yeah, it's far more bullish than, you know, we could have ever envisioned. Let’s take oil. The deficit that we can measure at the end of last month was running somewhere around 4.5million barrels per day. That's nearly 5% of the market is in a deficit. That is such a large hole that OPEC the U.S. administration, nobody's going to fix this. This is like, you know, the train is off the track and you're watching it in slow motion.
 
  But it's not just oil. You see it in copper,copper inventories dropping 8%, 10% week after week. These are numbers I have never envisioned or never seen before. You know, and you can think about what is going on here. And I think, you know, it goes back to Tracy's point about that zinc smelter shutting down in Europe. Problems in one market create problems in the other. So we think about, you know, first it was coal in China, then it became gas in Europe. Then it became aluminum in China, which then impacts copper elsewhere in the world. And it keeps this chain reaction going and each one of these markets get tighter and tighter.
 
So what is it about oil that makes this deficit so much larger than we could have ever envisioned? It’s because you now have oil being used in lieu of both coal and gas because of the shortages in those markets. So bottom line is, you know, we see a lot of up side risk from these price levels, which are far greater than the price levels we were forecasting when we spoke, you know, nine months ago. So bottom line, the underlying picture is far more bullish than what we had expected nine months ago, but the drivers of it are pretty much in line exactly [with] what we thought just in a much larger degree than what we thought