VBIN's oil stock thread.

[fenders53]

(07-13-2021, 09:09 PM)vbin Wrote: The problem is we are still getting 5-20k cases a day the virus can evolve and attack back in 6-12 months it might not be as bad as previous waves but it will hinder the full re-opening and might even force social distancing measures in place again.

What reasons otherwise for oil to not realize the potential yet. Stocks still trading at big discounts.

What you say is true if it gets a lot worse.  We won't be 100% risk free from the virus for a long time.  It's likely the full re-opening will be slowed in places.  I don't think we will be locking states down again at current levels.  This fall probably presents our next risk if the damage from the July 4th holiday is now know.  Other countries will open as a few close down.  There are still a lot of people to vaccinate around the world that desire it. 

ESG accounts for some of the discounting.  There are huge funds that will not touch an oil stock and that likely won't change.  

XOM was about risk free at $40.  While still undervalued at $60 there is now risk it won't outperform the SPY or other sectors.

There are a lot of investors that think EVs are going to make fossil fuels obsolete.  We know that is laughable anytime soon.  Some year renewables will stifle oils growth IMO.  Politics may have more influence than economic reality.

OPEC+ risk will definitely affect discounting.  

I did think oil stocks had at least another 10-15% to run but we shall see.