So Shell has predicted they have seen their peak production pre-pandemic. BP and TOT perhaps heading in that direction. This is thought provoking for me because it seems early.
-Perhaps it's a good long-term decision. We can have that conversation but it will be pure speculation for years. All the charts in the world can't solve all the variables. It may be their near-term direction anyway as European companies. Their hand is getting forced in many ways. It's possible they could become legitimate renewables players. Seems it would have been easier if they started when they had solid FCF, but nobody predicted a 2020 pandemic. I suppose they could cut exploration spending WAY back for a few years and ride the cash cow for dividends and fund green projects. That seems like a likely course of action if your intent is to produce a little less oil every year.
-Seems very bullish for the US majors and OPEC+ in the short to midterm. They can drill a little more with less chance of oversupply. Somebody is going to drill because that's what they do.
-I think RDS and BP survive as smaller energy companies in the end. I think they will sell some fossil fuels for the rest of my life. I won't be investing in them anytime soon. I'll stick with experienced renewables companies. I could see a merger between major oil and renewables when the green money spigot is shut or tapered off for a few years. Politics is politics and eventually other programs will seem more important. Not soon though.
P.S. I think they should have taken out coal completely starting a few years ago. Let West Virginians make solar panels and windmill parts. I think we will learn we are 10-20 years early trying to kill natural gas off economically.
-Perhaps it's a good long-term decision. We can have that conversation but it will be pure speculation for years. All the charts in the world can't solve all the variables. It may be their near-term direction anyway as European companies. Their hand is getting forced in many ways. It's possible they could become legitimate renewables players. Seems it would have been easier if they started when they had solid FCF, but nobody predicted a 2020 pandemic. I suppose they could cut exploration spending WAY back for a few years and ride the cash cow for dividends and fund green projects. That seems like a likely course of action if your intent is to produce a little less oil every year.
-Seems very bullish for the US majors and OPEC+ in the short to midterm. They can drill a little more with less chance of oversupply. Somebody is going to drill because that's what they do.
-I think RDS and BP survive as smaller energy companies in the end. I think they will sell some fossil fuels for the rest of my life. I won't be investing in them anytime soon. I'll stick with experienced renewables companies. I could see a merger between major oil and renewables when the green money spigot is shut or tapered off for a few years. Politics is politics and eventually other programs will seem more important. Not soon though.
P.S. I think they should have taken out coal completely starting a few years ago. Let West Virginians make solar panels and windmill parts. I think we will learn we are 10-20 years early trying to kill natural gas off economically.