The Speculative Stocks....

[vbin]

(03-05-2020, 06:13 PM)Otter Wrote:

(03-05-2020, 02:04 PM)vbin Wrote: Closed my spy puts today, lol and bought leap calls on oil. Big money is following oil and I am sure airlines will start hedging soon.

My short thesis has not changed, and my puts are long-dated. So, trying to ignore the day-to-day volatility and keep my eye on epidemiological developments (case numbers, % hospitalized, % in ICU, case fatality rates), and data relating to economic/societal impacts. Will sell if the data changes my thesis. I still think SPY 260 is extremely likely (TTM P/E of about 15). That is only a 23% drop from the recent highs, and just barely into official bear market territory. All of my puts should be deep ITM at that point (well, maybe not TSLA), and discount for time value should be negligible. I will probably start to unload some around that point, so I can begin to deploy some of the proceeds on the long side.

Again, if circumstances appear to change materially from my standpoint, out come the sell to close orders. 

 

Agree on 260. I also hold the view that we will see it. If we count 0 growth for 2020. It kinda makes sense but can't say anything for sure in market and can't fight with fed, they can keep cutting the rates and drown everyone in liquidity. Futures are up half a %.