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(02-25-2021, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (02-25-2021, 10:00 AM)divmenow Wrote: Bought some LDOS. Between the earnings miss and short report I haven’t seen it this low in a while. So I said why not lol. You in on this one too Fenders ?
I haven't researched it. Hadn't heard of it until you and Otter were discussing it last week. I am trying to not add too many more new names. We'll see how long that lasts. 
What I need is for tech to get hammered for real again, but this market is resilient.
Very small trades this morning. Added a few shares to DG-ARKF Sold a few SLV puts.
(06-17-2021, 09:13 AM)stockguru Wrote: Won't the big dividend payers suffer now with rising interest rates on the way? Banks, brokerages and industrials should fare well.
I'm wondering if getting into growth stocks like GOOG and FB is the way to play now?
I've been arranging my ROTH into this format. I now have the following growth stocks in it:
- Google
- Trade Desk
- Nvidia
- Adobie
- Intuitive Surgical
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(06-17-2021, 09:13 AM)stockguru Wrote: Won't the big dividend payers suffer now with rising interest rates on the way? Banks, brokerages and industrials should fare well.
I'm wondering if getting into growth stocks like GOOG and FB is the way to play now?
Consensus now is no rate hikes until 2023, which is still pretty far off even in forward-looking stock market terms.
If any sort of meaningful inflation occurs, companies that have a lot of overhead and fixed costs tied to commodities/inputs that inflate (like corn, soybeans or crude oil) seem like they wouldn't be the best bet. Sure, they can raise their prices to match inflation, but that's probably about all they will be able to do is keep pace (hopefully). Really amazed at the run-up in my ADM, as it seems overdone. Will probably kick myself for not selling when it drops back into the 30s for several years while the rest of the market overheats.
Growth tech companies with real and growing free cash flows to reinvest in the business should probably continue to outperform and enjoy higher average earnings multiples, because growth. Software companies don't typically have a lot of overhead other than staff. Any price hikes for the end product to match the inflationary environment are essentially just free additional revenue. Young tech companies that are still reliant on cheap money to fund them while they burn through cash to get started will probably see the largest multiple compression in the tech space. They will be affected most by any rise in rates. I think it is very unlikely that interest rates rise to a point where any serious investing trend will develop that favors 10-year treasury notes over blue chip tech companies with consistent double-digit YoY growth figures.
In an inflationary environment, the best companies that do the most for their shareholders will tend to continue being the best companies that do the most for their shareholders. Clean balance sheets and meaningful, sustained revenue/earnings growth are what drive success in any type of company, whether categorized as growth, value, or DGI. The trick is trying to find ones where you aren't paying $50 for $1 of this year's earnings.
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Added a little LOW & NKE this morning
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Closed out some Jan. '22 $25 PLTR Puts I sold back in February for a nice gain (roughly 50% of what I sold it for). Took the freed up secured cash and bought ABNB.
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Sold TMO and AAPL after those big run ups.
Lots of good buying opportunities today. I will wait to put that money to work when options expire tomorrow.
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06-17-2021, 02:41 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-17-2021, 02:42 PM by stockguru.)
New position EOG
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Too busy to play stock market today. I see pretty much the same sector rotation game we've seen all year. Think up a narrative and dump growth. value or whatever. Think up a new reason why this sector is a must own next month. Gotta own CAT, oh wait no it's a dog this week. For starters I am just going to buy a few shares of any quality stock I own that has taken a hit the past few weeks. Unfortunately few are down 5%, but it's time to nibble something. IMO this market has no plans to dip very hard for now.
I have a lot of option work to do tomorrow. Mostly good, but a few that need managed hard like CMI now that the market hates it.
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06-18-2021, 09:36 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2021, 09:36 AM by fenders53.)
Trimming some solar profits in SEDG-ENPH and RUN this morning, and may trim so more. I definitely plan to nibble some shares today. My industrials are getting hammered so I'll be busy rolling some options first because they expire today, and they are definitely in the money.
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It's a good thing I've been de-leveraging over the course of the last month, but today still sucks. One tripler that has never caused me problems to this point is FAS, which is currently experiencing a severe drawdown. Now, I watched SOXL fall from 40 to 28 a few months ago, and it's right back around 40 again. I want to see if FAS is as resilient.
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Sold some Puts today that were expiring and added those proceeds into FB and TSM. 2 tech names that are at least undervalued compared to everything else lol
I'm not selling ENPH yet. It's still off like $80 from the highs. I'm not going to sell and then hope to get back in cheaper lol
Added CVX and took a new position in LNC
If history repeats Oil, brokerages, insurance and Mortgage companies go up during a rate hike year. Better to early then late. Oil is above $70 a barrel and can easily go to $80. I just wish I put all of my money in that sector last year  . The market is selling off because of what may happen. Over reaction as always.
I have a few friends that have gotten killed this week and are 100% in. They dont sell anything, and have no reserve capital to buys stocks. They stay in and leave it alone. Wish I was that patient lol
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Added to BTI, VIAC, ADBE, AZO, BRK/B, GOOGL. Lots of non-DGI there.
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[quote pid='26842' dateline='1624027565']
Sold some Puts today that were expiring and added those proceeds into FB and TSM. 2 tech names that are at least undervalued compared to everything else lol
I'm not selling ENPH yet. It's still off like $80 from the highs. I'm not going to sell and then hope to get back in cheaper lol
Added CVX and took a new position in LNC
If history repeats Oil, brokerages, insurance and Mortgage companies go up during a rate hike year. Better to early then late. Oil is above $70 a barrel and can easily go to $80. I just wish I put all of my money in that sector last year . The market is selling off because of what may happen. Over reaction as always.
I have a few friends that have gotten killed this week and are 100% in. They dont sell anything, and have no reserve capital to buys stocks. They stay in and leave it alone. Wish I was that patient lol
[/quote]
In addition to long shares I have options in play in ENPH and SEDG, and I mean plural. Sometimes you take some profit. There seem to be some good sales in the next aisle today.
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